2011 Fantasy Baseball: NYY

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A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

NYY

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:

Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.

There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:

Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him

Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:

Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.

Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.

Waiver Saviors: April's Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

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My Waiver Saviors articles have always been about finding players available in a high percentage of leagues (I use ESPN and Yahoo! data because those are the two sites I personally prefer to play leagues in) and are having a statistical impact at the time the article is written.

This version of Waiver Saviors will look at a lineup of All-Star performances by players either not drafted or drafted near the end of most drafts this offseason. ESPN only tracks ADP (Average Draft Position) up to 260 picks and it looks like Yahoo! is in the same neighborhood. I believe a standard 5x5 10-team league uses 26 roster spots by default.

Here are your Fantasy Baseball Wavier Saviors All-Stars through the month of April:

Catcher Russell Martin of the New York Yankees has shown he's fully recovered from his injury and reversed the downward trend his career was taking with the Dodgers. His 5x5 line of .293/13/6/19/2 makes him the #1-ranked catcher in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. He was virtually undrafted on ESPN (260) and while he did a little better on Yahoo! (213.5). Joe Mauer owners need to step away from the edge.
First baseman Ike Davis of the New York Mets is showing owners he's worth all of the hype he received last season. His 5x5 line of .337/16/5/20 has him ranked 7th on ESPN and 8th on Yahoo! among such fantasy heavyweights as Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. All this from an ESPN ADP of 210.2 on ESPN and 229.2 on Yahoo!
Second baseman Darwin Barney of the Chicago Cubs has secured the majority of the playing time with his 5x5 line of .326/15/1/14/1, after being virtually undrafted in all formats. Jeff Baker is still in the mix for playing time, so keep an eye on things if Barney falters and Baker takes advantage of additional at-bats.
Third baseman Placido Polanco of the Philadelphia Phillies is healthy again and thriving as a fantasy baseball hitting machine. His 41 hits in just 26 games led to a 5x5 line of .398/18/2/19/3 from a player with an ADP of 203.3 on ESPN and 229.5 on Yahoo!
Shortstop Jed Lowrie of the Boston Red Sox is proving he deserves to be in the mix for at-bats, having already made an appearance at all four infield positions, by producing a "legendary" 5x5 line of .368/13/3/12/0 in April.
Outfielder Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals was considered by most to be on the downside of his career but has proved everyone wrong by opening the season with a 5x5 line of .393/23/8/22/0. Could he return to the player that has averaged 33 home runs and 110 RBI per 162 games played over his 13 year career? Current fantasy owners sure hope so.
Outfielder Jeff Francoeur of the Kansas City Royals has regained some of his 2005-2007 lightning that made him a fantasy-relevant player breaking in with the Braves. Both he and the Royals were the butt of many offseason-signing jokes but who's laughing at his 5x5 line of .314/16/5/20/3 now?
Outfielder Alfonso Soriano of the Chicago Cubs is tied for the major league lead in home runs with 10. Let that soak in for a moment as you look at the entire 5x5 line of .258/15/10/20/0 he was able to put up in April. His average and the fact that he's not stealing bases are both negatives but, for a player with an ADP of 207.8 on ESPN and 206.6 on Yahoo!, the risk versus reward factor is proving to be low at this point. Plus if he totally tanks it from this point on, very few owners will feel bad about dropping him to waivers.

This All-Star team deserves a place for two additional stars:

Outfielder Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals has gone from highly touted rookie to fantasy baseball bust to roto-relevant in just five seasons in the big leagues. His early 5x5 line of .339/20/2/19/2 has ranked inside the top-20 on ESPN (17th) and Yahoo! (19th), thanks to a recent 19-game hitting streak.
Outfielder Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays became a "legend" too when called upon to fill in for the retirement-bound Manny Ramirez. A recent 0-17 streak brought his 5x5 line down to .289/17/1/8/10, but quick reacting fantasy owners grabbing him off waivers aren't complaining...yet. It will be interesting to see what his numbers look like after the month of May is over.

No All-Star team would be complete without some pitchers, so here are a few that have dominated out of virtually nowhere:

Starting pitcher Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals went from undrafted to a must-own with a 4-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP start to the season.
Starting pitcher James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has provided owners that drafted him in ESPN (203.9) and Yahoo! (225.2) leagues plenty to smile about by going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 46.1 innings pitched.
Rookie starting pitcher Michael Pineda of the Seattle Mariners has started of his career with five straight quality starts and a 4-1 record, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings. His ADP of 225.1 on ESPN and 237.4 on Yahoo! prove there were some very savvy owners grabbing him in the last few rounds of drafts.
Starting pitcher Justin Masterson of the Cleveland Indians went 5-0 in April with five quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and seems ready to live up to the hype Red Sox fans witnessed back in 2008.
Relief pitcher Brandon League of the Seattle Mariners has stepped in brilliantly for the injured David Aardsma as closer, going 7-for-7 in saves with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Could a closer controversy be brewing? It will be interesting to watch what develops as Aardsma is due back soon.
Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth of the Tampa Bay Rays has been given the first chance to be the team's closer and has done a good job, saving his first five chances before blowing a save on the last day of April. With young arms Joel Peralta and Jake McGee and an injured J.P. Howell due back soon, you wonder how much longer Farnsworth will get the call to close games.

So there are your April 2010 Waiver Saviors All-Stars. What players were you able to grab off waivers in your leagues who've made the most difference to your success in April? Are you daily or weekly change leagues? Which do you prefer?

Did You Know?: April 29th, 2011

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If you weren't already aware, know this. I am a box score guy. I love the simplicity of the story it tells with numbers. I'm also excited about all of the new baseball statistics that seem to pop up yearly and even though I'm a little late to the game in understanding their utmost importance in using them when evaluating fantasy baseball players, it doesn't mean that I'm not paying attention. I hope to incorporate more of them into my analysis as I see fit. Stay tuned.

Now on to some statistics which you may not be aware of nearly a full month into the season in the latest installment of Did You Know?:

Adam Dunn has just two home runs and 10 RBI in 19 games this season, while Ben Zobrist accomplished those numbers in yesterday's doubleheader.
Names I did not expect to see in the top 10 in Total Bases this early in the season: Lance Berkman (1st), Jeff Francoeur (tied 6th) and Ike Davis (tied 9th).
Aren't stolen base guys supposed to be stealing bases? Juan Pierre has five steals and has been caught six times. Brett Gardner has four steals and has been caught three times. Chone Figgins has three steals and three caught stealings.
Josh Johnson has allowed just 13 hits in 34 innings pitched. Batters are "hitting" .116 off of him this season.
Austin Jackson is hitting just .167 (16/96) and has nearly twice the number of K's (31) as hits (16).
Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .284 with a .303 BABIP with zero walks in 95 at-bats. He must like his own chances when swinging the bat. Hopefully you don't own him in an OBP league.
Ryan Dempster has allowed 33 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. His ERA of 9.58 is higher than his K/9 ratio of 8.42.
At age 37, Johnny Damon is on pace for 130 RBI in just 136 games played (20 RBI in 21 of Rays first 35 games). Don't forget about 26 HR/26 SB pace, too.
Jorge Posada and Russell Martin have each hit six home runs in exactly 69 at-bats this season. Martin is batting .290 compared to Posada's .130 average.
Huston Street leads the majors with nine saves and is on pace for 63 total.
Matt Garza has 41 K's in just 30.2 innings pitched for a staggering 12.03 K/9 ratio yet he's 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA and an ugly WHIP of 1.47.

Are there some surprising statistics floating around out there already that have you scrambling to acquire or drop a player? If so, share them with the group, please. We all have a right to know.

Fun With Player Projections

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With three full weeks of games in the books to start the 2011 season, it's time to start looking at some of the statistics players are putting up and determining what's true or false about what we are seeing. ESPN Player Profile pages have a fun "projected" line worth looking at but have little value in truly projecting the season's outcomes with such as small sample size:

SS Starlin Castro, CHC leads the majors with 35 hits in 21 games. At his current pace, he projects to collect 270 hits, breaking Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 record of 262. It's doubtful Castro gets anywhere near the record but if you wound up with him on your roster(s) rather than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, you're not in a position to complain.
3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR is tied for the major league lead with seven home runs, has scored 19 runs and walked 19 times in just 18 games this season. At his current pace, he projects to hit 54 home runs (sound familiar?), score 147 runs and walk 147 times. None of these numbers put him in the stratosphere of "record-breaking" but they should be putting the talk of his 2010 simply being a fluke to rest.
1B Prince Fielder, MIL leads the majors with 22 RBI in his first 21 games this season. At his current pace, he'd drive in 170 runs in 162 games played. It's unlikely he'll keep up this pace but he could be back in line with his own 2009, when he drove in 141 runs in 162 games. Either way, his owners have to be pleased with his hot start to 2011.
OF Sam Fuld, TB has an unlikely 27 hits and 10 stolen bases in 20 games this season. At his current pace, Fuld will accumulate 199 hits and 74 steals. Could 175 hits and 40 stolen bases be that unrealistic for a player that's proving he deserves every opportunity to be in the lineup?
OF/DH Bobby Abreu, may only be hitting .240 but he's tied for the major league lead with 19 walks for a robust .394 OBP. At his current pace, that walk rate would put him at 140 for the season. He has a career .400 OBP and has walked over 120 times in a season twice, so this pace isn't all that unheard of for the disciplined Abreu.
OF Matt Kemp, LAD is doing all he can to make fantasy owners forget about his 2010 season by starting off 2011 with this insane 5x5 line: .402/16/5/17/8. At his current pace, he's looking at a season's ending line of .402/127/35/127/56 and a run at the Triple Crown. There's no way he hits anywhere near .400 but he looks like a man on a mission to go 40/40. If you passed on Kemp because you were burned by him in 2010, there's always 2012.
OF Dexter Fowler, COL is unfortunately tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with 27 but has offset that with 14 walks and a .381 OBP. At his current pace, Fowler would strike out 208 times and walk 108.
OF Juan Pierre, CHW is known for his stolen base prowess in fantasy baseball but he already has been caught stealing five times to go along with his five stolen bases. At his current pace, Pierre would be looking at 37 SB and 37 CS. Now, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get caught stealing that often but you may start wondering if he's losing a step at age 33. And without his speed, Pierre's not much of a fantasy option.
SP Jered Weaver, LAA is 5-0 with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over his first five starts. At his current pace, Weaver projects to start 39 games and strike out 301 batters in 278.2 innings pitched. Those just aren't realistic numbers in today's game but if he keeps his current 9.6 K/9 and matches his innings pitched from 2010 (224.1), he'd probably wind up leading the majors in strikeouts again in 2011 with 241.
CL Mariano Rivera, NYY has appeared in 11 of the Yankees first 18 games and saved seven of their 12 wins. At his current pace, Rivera would appear in 99 games and finish the season with 63 saves. He's only averaging 64.2 appearances over the last five seasons, so he should slow down once the rest of the Yankee pen settles into their roles. I'd bet Rivera's a lock for his usual 35-45 saves again this year.

The goal of this exercise is to point out not getting too crazy over such a small sample of statistics, positively or negatively. Proven stars will more than likely return to levels that proven stars are used to performing at, statistically speaking. Now, that doesn't mean a top player can't have a down year (see Matt Kemp's 2010) but at least give everyone more than 1/8th of the overall schedule to prove their values to your fantasy baseball roster(s).

Which players are you buying are for real and what numbers are you predicting for them that might surprise most? Which players are you afraid are going to have an off or down year and are ready to cut ties with (drop or trade)? Please use the comments section below to get the conversation started.

Where Can I Find: Stolen Bases

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I know it's just a couple weeks into the season but now is the time to evaluate your roster to see if you may have overlooked a category or two (or more) during your draft and making some roster adjustments to keep you from ~~failing~~ falling too far behind in the standings.

Below is a list of players available in a large percentage of ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could help you stay competitive in the Stolen Bases category early in the season:

OF Sam Fuld, TB leads the American League in stolen bases with six in just nine games played. He wasn't fantasy-relevant until Manny Ramirez retired and looks to get the majority of playing time in left field while batting leadoff. His overall line of .313/5/1/4/6 could easily help you out in three categories. He's still only 18% owned in ESPN leagues and 26% in Yahoo! leagues. And for some good laughs, check out the #LegendofSamFuld hashtag on Twitter.
3B/SS/OF Willie Bloomquist, ARI benefited from Stephen Drew starting the season with an injury and has made the most of his opportunities. He's started nine of the D'Backs eleven games and has a hit in all nine while racking up six stolen bases and accumulating quite the fantasy baseball line of .349/9/1/5/6. He's only OF eligibility in ESPN leagues but could turn into a super-utility type much like what we saw from Omar Infante in 2010. Now may be the time to commit to picking him up as his ownership numbers continue to rise (54.1% E; 72% Y!).
2B Orlando Hudson, SD is settling in quite nicely near the top of the order with his new team and showing there's still life left in his legs. Hudson has never stolen more than 10 bases in a season, so the four he has now could be an anomaly but if you are lacking at 2B or MI in a deeper league he may be worth the look. He's putting up overall numbers (.324/5/0/2/4) that make him ownable while he's widely available (3.7% E; 7% Y!).
OF Coco Crisp, OAK has averaged 31 stolen bases per 162 games in his career but his problem has been staying healthy. He already has four steals this season but is now dealing with a lower back injury. If you have the roster space to spot start him when he's healthy, you could pick up some cheap steals without much risk. His ownership numbers are currently dropping (56.9% E; 41% Y!), so you probably have some time to make a decision here.
OF Johnny Damon, TB somehow has managed three steals already and currently riding a five-game hitting streak. He'll run a lot more with the Rays than he did with the Tigers, so double-digit steals should be a reality for him again this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him reach 15/15 in 2011. His ownership numbers are very low (25.5% E; 10% Y!) and so is his batting average but he's providing value in 4-out-of-5 standard scoring categories (.220/4/2/7/3).
C Russell Martin, NYY looks healthy and playing with passion again for the Yankees. Why his ownership numbers aren't higher is beyond me (68.2% E; 72% Y!)? A catcher with the potential to go 20/20 should be owned in 100% of all formats (minus the NL-only lovers). Martin is currently the highest-ranked catcher on both ESPN and Yahoo! with his .300/5/3/8/2 line.
OF David Murphy, TEX will be in the mix for the majority of starts with Josh Hamilton hitting the DL yesterday. Murphy stole 14 bases in 138 games in 2010 and couple provide a nice mix of power and speed over the next couple of months. He's come out of the gate hot (.313/4/1/3/2) and should see a major spike in his ownership numbers (5.1% E; 34% Y!).

I hope you find this list as useful as I have while doing the research. People always talk about how fantasy baseball leagues aren't won by the players they draft in the early rounds but by how well they did with late-round picks and how active they are in the early part of the season with waiver wire pickups. Don't be someone that sits around too long waiting for that "sleeper" to start producing or wasting a roster spot on a potential keeper for next season. I play to win now and will deal with managing potential keepers when September rolls around.

Waiver Saviors: April 6th, 2011

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Waiver Saviors will be a semi-regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process.

Here are some players who've gotten off to a fast start and may be worth owning if your roster has already been bitten by the injury bug or some late round fliers/sleepers aren't panning out:

3B/OF Alex Gordon, KC (10.3% ESPN; 39% Yahoo! owned) is hitting .375 (9/24) with 1 HR (5 XBH), 3 RBI and 6 Runs. He's currently only OF eligible in ESPN leagues.
OF Josh Willingham, OAK (6.8% E; 16% Y!) is hitting .333 (5/15) with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 5 Runs. He's currently Oakland's top-rated hitter.
3B/OF Willie Bloomquist, ARI (5.3% E; 12% Y!) is hitting .333 (6/18) with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 Runs and 4 SB. He's been filling in at SS for the injured Stephen Drew and could gain eligibility at that position, depending on your league's rules. Could he be this year's Omar Infante?
OF Logan Morrison, FLA (26.8% E; 33% Y!) is hitting .286 (4/14) with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 Runs and 5 BB (.474 OBP). He also is one of the most active and accessible MLB'ers on Twitter.
C Russell Martin, NYY (33.8% E; 51% Y!) is hitting .353 (6/17) with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 Runs, 2 SB and has started at catcher in all five of the Yankees's games, so far. He looks healthy and rejuvenated.
SS Orlando Cabrera, CLE (8.4% E; 9% Y!) is hitting .375 (6/16) with 1 HR, 5 RBI and 4 Runs. He's the Indians' starting second baseman and should gain eligibility at that position soon.
2B/3B/SS Maicer Izturis, LAA (7.1% E; 14% Y!) is hitting .318 (7/22) with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 Run and 2 SB. His position eligibility could be his biggest asset right now for a team that has multiple holes.
RP Jordan Walden, LAA (33.3% E; 56% Y!) was recently named the Angels' closer and should be owned in all formats that use Saves. In 3.1 innings, he's posting 16.2 K/9 and 6.00 K/BB ratios with 1 Save and 2 Holds.
RP Joel Hanrahan, PIT (72% E; 82% Y!) is Pittsburgh's closer and should be owned in 100% of leagues. He's already racked up 3 Saves with a 13.50 K/9.

It's very early to look at what starting pitchers can help your team but you should be keeping an eye on the box scores to see what low-ownership pitchers are performing well. And remember, IT IS VERY EARLY in the season. Don't blow up your roster chasing after "hot" players. You should be dropping guys who were late-round fliers or "sleepers", not proven veterans simply off to a slow start. It blows my mind that John Lackey and Ryan Raburn are currently two of the most-dropped players.

2011 Draft Results: Middle Infielders Targeted

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Second base and shortstop continue to be shallow positions in fantasy baseball, with the upper tiers separating themselves from the middle and (God forbid) lower tiers pretty drastically. Only 16 positionally eligible players (9 2B; 7 SS) rank in the top 100, according to MockDraftCentral.com. So if you miss out on some of the upper-to-middle tier players, you could find yourself in a whole mess of trouble filling those roster slots all season long with whatever player is available on waivers and providing some level of fantasy value in return.

All five leagues I participated in this offseason utilized an extra roster spot for either middle infielders (MI) or infielder (IF), forcing team owners to go even deeper into this pool of players and hoping the ones they picked do more good than damage to their teams.

First, here are the results of my SLOW, online auction at the 2B, SS and MI positions over at CouchManagers.com:

Troy Tulowitzki ($39)
Neil Walker ($5)
Freddy Sanchez ($1)

I was aggressively involved in the bidding for both Hanley Ramirez and Tulowitzki until Ramirez went over the $40 mark and Tulo's other suitors seemed reluctant to take him into the $40 stratosphere. Honestly, if I was willing to go to $41 on a player it wouldn't have been Tulo. I was ready to jump back in on HanRam or change my focus towards Pujols and take it all the way up to $50. With Tulo on my roster to start the season, I'm a very happy camper.

Neil Walker was a definite target of mine and I was happily surprised he flew under the radar for just $5. But more on him in a bit. Freddy Sanchez was simply filler at the MI position that will hopefully hit near his .298 career average and give me 7-10 home runs.

Let's take a look at the players I was able to draft in each of my online snake draft leagues (draft pick in parenthesis):

Dustin Pedroia (25), Elvis Andrus (72), Neil Walker (144), Yunel Escobar (192) and Miguel Tejada (289)
Brandon Phillips (51), Stephen Drew (107) and Omar Infante (247)
Derek Jeter (64), Aaron Hill (105) and Ty Wigginton (301)
Elvis Andrus (78) and Neil Walker (162)

The Second Basemen: Dustin Pedroia was the guy I wanted in every league but was only able to pull off owning him in one. I'm very anxious to see the kind of numbers he can put up in that revamped, powerful Red Sox lineup. Brandon Phillips was a pick that I didn't want to make but his ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is currently 36.82 and getting his projected .270/90/20/80/20 at a +14 draft difference was too hard to pass up. Aaron Hill should give me 20 HR/70 RBI but with what batting average? Greater or less than .250? Neil Walker was my backup plan to missing out on Pedroia and that worked out for me in three of five leagues. A full season in the bigs could produce a .280/80/15/90/10.

The Shortstops: Somehow I wound up drafting Elvis Andrus twice without even trying. He was on my radar for runs and stolen bases and was too hard to pass up. I'm hoping his average stays near .280, though. Andrus was not my primary target as shortstop, though. I really wanted Jose Reyes in as many leagues as possible because I was banking on a return to fantasy dominance in this, the ever so important "contract year". Derek Jeter was another target of mine, despite the lack of confidence the fantasy baseball community seems to have in his abilities. We're talking about a player in a "down year" (in 2010) batting .270 and scoring 111 runs and just one season removed from batting .334 (in 2009). He may not be an MVP candidate but there's nothing stopping him from being a top 5 shortstop. Stephen Drew was a panic pick for me because there was a run on shortstops and I got caught up in the action. I'm already regretting it because he's yet to make an appearance this season due to injury and I'm stuck scrounging through waivers for a body to plug in.

The Backups: Omar Infante (2B/3B/OF) and Ty Wigginton (1B/2B/3B) were both targeted for their position eligibilities. If your league has a max games limit, having players on your roster that can fill in a game here and there for your stars will maximize your scoring opportunities. Yunel Escobar played better in 2010 after his trade to the Blue Jays and could be in line for a nice bounce-back season. Miguel Tejada (3B/SS) could benefit offensively from playing on a team that is expected to win a lot of games and, at pick 289, there's very little risk. I don't expect to keep both Escobar and Tejada on the same roster for very long. I'll keep whichever starts off hottest.

Going into a draft with a plan is great, especially for the more shallow roster positions like the middle infielders, but things can change very quickly and knowing when to hold steady, reach for a player or hit the panic button can make a huge difference to overall look of your roster.

What strategies did you use when it came to drafting players that qualified at the middle infielder positions? What unique settings does your league have in place that made some players more favorable than others? Do you change strategies based on a classic rotisserie league versus a head-to-head scoring league? Please feel free to comment on my players or share your personal experiences when looking back on your draft(s) outcomes.

2011 Draft Results: Catchers Targeted

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This season, I participated in five fantasy baseball leagues of varying types of formats but, for the most part, the players I targeted were pretty much the same. Now, that doesn't mean that I got all the same players in all five leagues but there were some commonalities.

I also want to go on record as saying I think two-catcher leagues of any type are ridiculous. Why as a commissioner would you want to force managers to carry what in my opinion are statistically the worst offensive bunch of players in the game? That being said, the first draft I participated in this season was an "experts" league with an online auction draft and wouldn't you know it...a two-catcher league. The difficulty level was escalated by the fact there are 13 teams and 30-man rosters per team (equals at least 26 catchers being drafted).

My strategy for this league was to get involved in the bidding for the two catchers I valued as being the best (as do most), Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, and hope to walk away with one and spend a little money later in the draft on a guy like Miguel Montero or Carlos Ruiz. Both Mauer and Posey were thrown out early and I was pretty aggressive in the bidding as planned, assuming each would go in the $20-$30+ range in this format. Well, when the dust settled, here's what my two-catcher strategy yielded:

Mauer ($24) and Posey ($20)

Now, I'm not shedding any tears over having this duo on my roster, unlike the owner who's rostering Josh Thole and Devin Mesoraco (um, who?). I regret being so aggressive and using $44 of my $330 budget (13%) on a position I was hoping to get bargains but I'm very excited to see what these two can do, offensively, this year.

My four remaining drafts (three of which I am the commissioner) were all single-catcher formats but I went in to each with the strategy of trying to get an upper-to-middle tier catcher early, depending on my draft position, and grabbing a second catcher at the end of the draft for bench depth and spot starts. Here's what that strategy wound up producing (draft pick in parenthesis):

Miguel Montero (145) and Russell Martin (264)
Miguel Montero (146) and Carlos Ruiz (359)
Geovany Soto (120) and Russell Martin (329)
Russell Martin (315) and John Jaso (343)

In all four of these leagues, I went in targeting Soto as my primary catcher but he only fell to me once. My backup plan for a starter was Montero and that worked well for me twice. I can live with that to start the season. My biggest failure at catcher came in my last draft of the season. Soto, Montero and even Ruiz were all gone before the 140th pick and I passed on Mike Napoli with the 190th pick, only to see him taken with the 191st pick.

So I am left hoping Montero and Soto provide me with with enough offensive production to make the backup catcher a position I don't have to carry the entire season. My problem is that I am heavily invested in Martin returning to some level of his old self. Will having Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada as influences be a good or bad thing? I'm hoping he can provide a .270/60/10/60/10 line at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I guarantee you I won't be in the Russell Martin business very long if it looks like he won't be effective. I'll be searching the waiver wires for who's hot and dumping who's not.

How did you go about drafting catchers this season? Do you have a preference for one or two-catcher formats? In hindsight, did you overly invest in specific players across multiple drafts like I did? Use the comments section to share your thoughts of my catcher targets and your strategies during your 2011 drafts.

Ups and Downs: 03/08/2011

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Ups and Downs is a regular column that I wrote during last season (and will continue to do so this season) identifying the players being added and dropped the most over a particular time frame but I thought it was time to write one about what's going on this Spring and target a few players whose stock is either rising or falling as we get closer to Opening Day.

Stock is Rising:

1B Freddie Freeman, ATL is doing everything he can so far this Spring to catch the eye of fantasy owners looking for a late-round or cheaper auction option at first base. He's currently hitting .458 (11/24) but has yet to hit a home run.
3B Pablo Sandoval, SF dropped a reported 20-30 pounds in an effort to rebound from a disappointing 2010. He's hitting .333 (9/27) this Spring with two home runs and currently has an ADP of 139.97 on Mock Draft Central.
SP Gio Gonzalez, OAK has started two games, pitched a total of five innings, hasn't given up a hit or run, only walked two batters while striking out 10. Mr. Gonzalez, you have my attention!
C Jesus Montero, NYY was slated to start the season at AAA but Francisco Cervelli's broken foot will keep him out for more than a month and Russell Martin is still recovering from his injuries. All this means that he should break camp as the backup catcher and maybe even the starter if Martin struggles.

Stock is Falling:

2B Chase Utley, PHI is listed as day-to-day while dealing with tendinitis in his right knee.This could be a serious blow to all if this turns out to be more than the Phillies are reporting. Even Keith Olbermann is tweeting about it.
1B Kendry Morales, LAA still isn't running at 100% as he works to returning from his fractured left leg, putting his return for Opening Day in jeopardy. I wouldn't drop him too much in drafts. 140-plus games of Morales are worth a lot more than 162 games of, say, James Loney.
OF Corey Hart, MIL suffered a setback on March 5th with his strained rib cage muscle and is out indefinitely. Some fantasy owners were already questioning whether or not his 31 HR/102 RBI season was legit and I am sure this injury will do nothing to inspire confidence that those numbers will be back.
OF Domonic Brown, PHI was battling to take over right field for the Phillies as Jayson Werth's replacement but a 1/16 (.063) start this Spring and now a fractured bone in his right hand all but ended those hopes. The job looks to be Ben Francisco's to lose (Stock Rising) now.

I know there are many other players whose values or ADPs are rising and dropping but these players stood out to me as the ones most people are discussing right now. I plan to do one of these each week until Opening Day, so keep an eye out for more and please use the comments section to discuss the fantasy impact these players (or others) are having in your drafts and the way you view their stock.

Why I Had To Quit Fantasy Baseball

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(In my efforts to bring additional voices and perspectives to fantasy baseball on COSFBA, I present to you another guest writer. This article was written by William J. Tasker of The Flagrant Fan and gives a unique perspective on his struggles of being a baseball fan and a fantasy baseball player.)

   I envy you folks that can still play fantasy sports. Growing up with an advanced love of baseball statistics, playing fantasy baseball was the bomb. It was also the natural progression from growing up with Strat-O-Matic baseball, a game that reached its fiftieth anniversary this season. Pouring over the statistics every day along with the box scores fit right in with my lifestyle and that’s what made fantasy baseball very exciting and a passion. It was fun to compete against friends and also anonymous people on the Net and the victories made me feel like a genius. Of course, the losses were always blamed on luck.

     But a funny thing happened. I noticed that I was developing a mental disorder the more I played the fantasy game. I’ll have to admit that I am a lifelong Yankee fan. Before you hate me for that, my love for the team began in the 1960s when the team was absolutely terrible. So I was a Fan even before they became the Evil Empire. When I root for a team, it goes down to the roots of my being. In essence, a part of my life force is wrapped up in my desire for the team to win. Being a Fan of any team has its shares of heartbreak. No team is going to win all the time and failure is built into the system. Even the best teams are going to lose 35% of the time. Now add to this passion the element of fantasy baseball.

     Here is how the mental problems came about. Say my fantasy team included Miguel Cabrera and his Tigers were playing my Yankees. But Cabrera is a big dog on my fantasy team and earns me a lot of points. Say the Yankees are fighting the Red Sox or the Bay Rays for the pennant and there are only a game or so separating all the teams. Naturally, I am pulling hard for the Yankees, but now, in a scoreless game with a man on, Cabrera crushes an A. J. Burnett pitch into the left field grandstand. Immediately, I jump up and start pumping my fists and scream, “Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!”

     But then, just as suddenly, my head catches up with my fantasy baseball glee and says, “Whuh?” The guy hit a two run homer…against the Yankees…who are fighting for a division title. Why are you cheering you idiot!?

     Say the next day is Sunday and the ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is on and the featured game is the Red Sox against the Rangers. Absolutely, I have to admit that I HATE the Red Sox. Not only do they compete head to head with my team, but a lot of their fans have become this obsessive, obnoxious group they call, “The Red Sox Nation,” which is a direct rip off of the “Cardinal Nation” which has been around a whole lot longer.

     Anyway, the game is the Red Sox against the Rangers. The Rangers are probably my second favorite team in the AL because of Josh Hamilton and because they finally got the Angels out of the playoffs. But it just so happens that I have Dustin Pedroia as my fantasy second baseman and Jonathan Papelbon as my closer. The fan again has to admit that Papelbon is pretty close to my least favorite major league baseball player. But I needed a closer for my fantasy team and he was the best name left on the board during the draft. Pedroia doesn’t bother me. He’s kind of a cute little elf anyway. But both are on my fantasy team. And the game progresses.

     Everything about me would root against the Red Sox and for the Rangers. The Red Sox losing would be good for my team, the Yankees. The Rangers winning would be good for them to stay ahead of the Angels. But again, Pedroia hits a double that plates two runs and then steals third and scores on a wild pitch. I’m delirious with glee as my fantasy team just got the Holy Grail. And then, at the end of the game with the Red Sox ahead, Papelbon comes in with men on base and closes the door with every out being a strikeout. Score! Yeah! Cool! Bonus!

          Whuh?

     And so you can see how this was ruining me. I started twitching during games as the duality of my desires fought constantly. It got to a point where I was having open arguments…out loud…with myself.

          “You CAN’T root for him.”

          “Oh yes I can and I will!”

          “But…but…it’s sacrilege!”

     And so I had to put it away and give it up. That’s the big difference between Strat-O-Matic and Fantasy. If you win in Strat-O-Matic, at least it doesn’t really affect your favorite team. I don’t play Strat-O-Matic anymore though.

     And thus order is restored to my baseball viewing habits. My wife no longer looks at me with fear in her eyes and the phone at the ready to call 911. My passion is fully directed toward one cause and not split. My blood pressure is down. And the game is fun again.

     But I do miss it. I miss looking for the sleeper picks. If I was still playing fantasy baseball, my two sleeper picks for 2011 would be Curtis Granderson and Aaron Harang. They would have been great picks too.

William J. Tasker writes about baseball and his passion for the game on his own blog, The Flagrant Fan, and should also be followed on Twitter. He's also a fellow member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

Finding Keepers: New York Yankees

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Rare is the team that can make a case for a keeper at nearly every position, but so is the case with the New York Yankees.

2B Robinson Cano finished the season as the top-ranked fantasy second baseman and the 11th-ranked player overall . His .319/103/29/109/3 was enough to garner him a third place finish in the AL MVP voting. Cano will be drafted in the first round of most drafts and continues to show his value as a keeper. I'm still not sure we've seen him reach his full potential and that should excite any fantasy owner lucky enough to have him on their roster for years to come.

You'd think 40 wins and nearly 400 strikeouts over the last two seasons would have been enough for SP CC Sabathia to win a couple of Cy Young awards but such is not the case. His 2010 season left him as the 7th-ranked starting pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater. Sabathia owners should just sit back and enjoy the quality seasons he's putting together, lock him up as a keeper and work to build a quality pitching staff around him.

Any guesses which other Yankee ranked within the top 50 fantasy-valued players? Hint: His yearly salary was a whopping $452,500. OF Brett Gardner finished the season with a .277/97/5/47/47 line, ranking him 47th overall and he deserves the same consideration as a keeper that a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn would be given. Would you rather a 20/20 outfielder or a 5/50 one?

Some people would argue that 3B Alex Rodriguez is no longer the player he used to be. Maybe that's true but he's STILL a player that hit 30 HR and had 125 RBI last season and that was good enough for 6th best at his position and is a no-brainer keeper. He probably won't be drafted in the first round of many drafts this season and could fall past the second round. All I know is that if he falls and I have the next pick, I'm buying that his line gets better in 2011.

SS Derek Jeter had a statistically down year in 2010 (for him) but still managed to be the 5th-ranked shortstop in baseball. With a new contract and 3000 hits within his reach, does Jeter have something to prove to the Yankees, the media and the fans? Love him or hate him, he's a fantasy baseball keeper.

Wanna lock up a seven-year veteran as a keeper that averages 37 HR, 121 RBI, 104 Runs while batting .286? Then 1B Mark Teixeira is your guy. Even though his batting average was a career-worst .256, Teixeira managed to hit 33 HR with 108 RBI while scoring a career-high 113 Runs. Pencil him in as your opening day first baseman and enjoy the ride.

Two players that would probably not receive much keeper consideration were they not on the Yankees would be C Jorge Posada and OF Nick Swisher. Posada looks to be the Yankees full-time DH next season with catcher eligibility and the potential to hit .270+ with 20 HR and 80 RBI while Swisher went .288/91/29/89/1 in 2010. I say yes to Posada as a keeper simply due to the numbers he can put up with his catcher eligibility (10th ranked) but no to Swisher as the 25th-ranked outfielder.

Rarely do closers deserve consideration as keepers but how do you not consider RP Mariano Rivera and all that he brings to the table. Obviously on the downside of his career, Rivera still brings the potential for 40 saves with a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP. I'm not here to endorse him as a keeper but surely won't mock you for doing so.

Best of the rest but not keepers:

OF Curtis Granderson brings tons of potential (20/20? 30/30?!?!) for a breakout fantasy season but hasn't hit north of .250 the last two seasons. That's a huge gamble to take with a keeper selection.
SP Phil Hughes was 11-2/3.65 ERA/1.18 WHIP prior to the All-Star break and 7-6/4.90 ERA/1.34 WHIP after the All-Star break. Which pitcher would you be keeping?
C Russell Martin, if fully healthy, could put up great numbers hitting at the bottom of a potent Yankee lineup and will likely be aggressively sought on draft day but not a keeper for 2011. That may very well change for 2012.
SP Andy Pettitte is still weighing his options but his keeper years are well behind him.

As stacked as the Yankees' roster is with fantasy keepers, they still have some unanswered questions within their rotation and in the bullpen. Feel free to use the comments section to discuss what the 2011 season has in store for the entire team, individual player statistics and projections or what moves you think the Yankees still have left to make headed into a season where the rival Boston Red Sox are clearly making a run at winning it all with their offseason moves.

Please take a moment to check out the rest of my "Finding Keepers" articles, follow me on Twitter and share this post on some of your other favorite social media sites using the button(s) below.

Enough Already, Yankees!

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Just to be clear, COSFBA is a fantasy baseball blog dedicated to news about all players from all teams all the time. Except now. At my core I am a Brooklyn-born die-hard New York Yankees fan but even deeper is my love for the entire game of baseball. But what the Yankees have become (the team everyone loves to hate) is bad for everyone. Unfortunately it's not going to get any better any time soon.

I hate everything about the Yankees trying to sign Cliff Lee especially when the numbers being thrown around are 5yrs/$115M and as high as 7yrs/$175M. UGH! That's a lot of money for a guy that runs it out there just 34 times, at best, during the regular season. Didn't the Yankees make it to the playoffs WITHOUT him and roll right past Minnesota? I'd rather see them throw some incentive-laden contracts at guys like Rich Harden, Brad Penny and Brandon Webb or a much more affordable offer at Jorge de la Rosa.

And while I'm talking pitching, thank you for all you've done for the Yankees, Andy Pettitte, but the game of "will I pitch or will I retire" is getting old. If the desire to pitch only comes with another $15M contract, stay home and enjoy the family you so desperately struggle leaving each year.

Next up, Mariano Rivera. Mo will go down in history as the greatest reliever of all-time. No doubt. And I think the Yankees should bring him back for another year, even with a $15-18M price tag. My question is, "Who's next in line?" Joba Chamberlain will never be the closer in New York. They let Kerry Wood walk. They aren't grooming anyone to be a closer. The bullpen is a mess and all that Cliff Lee money would be much better utilized in shoring up innings six, seven and eight while developing a closer-to-be.

Speaking of Joba, is there a trade market for this poor guy? If so, pull the trigger. Let some other team figure out if he's a starter, reliever or closer. Joe Girardi and the New York media have messed with his head long enough.

Another hole the Yankees need to fill is acquiring an actual catcher (anyone named Molina will do) or allowing Jesus Montero the opportunity to grow into one at the major league level. Thank you Jorge Posada for all you've done for the Yankees but may be one of the worst defensive catchers I've ever seen behind the plate. Play out your last season as a DH/C and go away already.

I know many of you are thinking how can there be an article about the New York Yankees and the words Derek Jeter not appear in the first sentence. Well that's because the Jeter contract negotiations are a complete and utter mess and only getting uglier. Jeter deserves the opportunity to finish out his career as a Yankee, but at a price that makes sense to both parties. If the Yankees truly wanted Jeter to be a life-long Yankee wouldn't they have negotiated an extension before his current contract expired? MAYBE Jeter has a few productive years left in him but it may be time for both sides to agree to disagree and move on...as hard as that is to swallow.

Baseball needs more teams like the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers in the World Series to prove to fans (and the Yankees) that you can't keep trying to buy championships and that throwing insane amounts of dollars at individual players isn't the only way to try to win. Oh, and while I'm on my soapbox, Major League Baseball needs not only a salary cap but a salary minimum. You can't have millionaires competing with billionaires and expect a level playing field. The overall health of the game is suffering. Just ask a Pittsburgh Pirates' fan.

Speak out, Yankees' fans. At some point enough has to be enough. Remember, it's your hard-earned dollars that pay those outrageous salaries. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Thankful

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This is the time of year where everyone takes a moment to voice all that they are currently thankful for, reflect on the past year and look towards what the future has in store. COSFBA is no different. The following are the Top 10 things COSFBA is very thankful for this holiday season:

10. Players with multi-position eligibility. These are the types of players that make every fantasy baseball roster better. Martin Prado (1B/2B/3B), Jose Bautista (3B/OF), Omar Infante (2B/3B/SS/OF), Ben Zobrist (1B/2B/OF) are just a few valuable players whose positional flexibility kept them in the lineup.
9. Bryce Harper. What's not to love about the future of the Washington Nationals? From the ridiculous amounts of eye black to tearing up the Arizona Fall League, this guy will keep fantasy baseball writers busy for years to come.
8. Perfect games and no hitters. Ubaldo Jimenez. Dallas Braden. Roy Halladay (x2). Edwin Jackson. Matt Garza. Sign me up for more of the same in 2011.
7. The Hot Stove season. Rumors. Signings. Trades. This time of year is why I gave up on fantasy football several years ago. Who needs football when baseball is now truly a 12-month sport. Twitter has been a phenomenal source of great information if you know who to follow.
6. Statistics. I'm a huge fan of advanced baseball statistics but will admit I'm a little late to the game. You won't see me quoting a whole lot about BABIP, FIP, WAR, VORP or wOBA but I'll be sure to make reference to resources I find valuable in my hunt to become more SABR-literate.
5. Awards. Starting with the Derek Jeter Gold Glove fiasco and ending with Josh Hamilton's AL MVP, the 2010 awards gave bloggers plenty to talk about and COSFBA got in on the action, too.
4. Albert Pujols. I'm sorry, but Pujols is fantasy baseball royalty and until he proves to be less than superhuman, he's the number one pick in all fantasy baseball formats.
3. Impact Rookies. Here's hoping 2011 brings another crop of rookies as good as Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson, Jaime Garcia, Danny Valencia, Gaby Sanchez, Neil Walker and more.
2. Closers on the cheap can change the fantasy baseball landscape of any league. Guys like John Axford, Kevin Gregg and Chris Perez will be the poster boys for next season's "never pay for saves" reasoning.

And the number one reason COSFBA is thankful this holiday season is...
1. Pitchers and catchers report to camps on February 13, 2011. Valentine's Day will come a day early this year and I will be sure to mark the 13th with a heart because "I Love You, baseball season". Just don't break my heart.

What are some of the baseball-related things you were thankful for in 2010 and hopeful for in 2011?

Line of the Day: 10/02/2010

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2B Robinson Cano, NYY was 6-for-8 with two doubles, a home run, two RBI, two runs, two walks and a stolen base in the Yankees' split of a doubleheader with the Boston Red Sox. If Cano is trying to make a lasting impression with MVP voters, it's working. He's 9/23 (.391 BA, 14 total bases) with a home run, four RBI, three runs and a stolen base over the last seven days. His overall .320/103/29/108/3 line will definitely keep him in the discussion.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

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Line of the Day: 09/20/2010

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OF Curtis Granderson, NYY was 2-for-3 with two home runs, five RBI, two runs, two walks and a stolen base in New York's 8-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. He's currently on a seven-game hitting streak including four home runs and 11 RBI over the last five games. Granderson's overall numbers are a little disappointing (.249/71/21/59/12) as many (including yours truly) expected a breakout season moving into the new new Yankees Stadium and powerful Yankee lineup.