Showing posts with label NYM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NYM. Show all posts

A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

NYM
A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:
  • Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
  • Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
  • John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
  • Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.
There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:
  • Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him
Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:
  • Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
  • Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
  • Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
  • John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
  • Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.
Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.

Waiver Saviors: April's Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

NYM
My Waiver Saviors articles have always been about finding players available in a high percentage of leagues (I use ESPN and Yahoo! data because those are the two sites I personally prefer to play leagues in) and are having a statistical impact at the time the article is written.

This version of Waiver Saviors will look at a lineup of All-Star performances by players either not drafted or drafted near the end of most drafts this offseason. ESPN only tracks ADP (Average Draft Position) up to 260 picks and it looks like Yahoo! is in the same neighborhood. I believe a standard 5x5 10-team league uses 26 roster spots by default.

Here are your Fantasy Baseball Wavier Saviors All-Stars through the month of April:
  • Catcher Russell Martin of the New York Yankees has shown he's fully recovered from his injury and reversed the downward trend his career was taking with the Dodgers. His 5x5 line of .293/13/6/19/2 makes him the #1-ranked catcher in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. He was virtually undrafted on ESPN (260) and while he did a little better on Yahoo! (213.5). Joe Mauer owners need to step away from the edge.
  • First baseman Ike Davis of the New York Mets is showing owners he's worth all of the hype he received last season. His 5x5 line of .337/16/5/20 has him ranked 7th on ESPN and 8th on Yahoo! among such fantasy heavyweights as Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. All this from an ESPN ADP of 210.2 on ESPN and 229.2 on Yahoo!
  • Second baseman Darwin Barney of the Chicago Cubs has secured the majority of the playing time with his 5x5 line of .326/15/1/14/1, after being virtually undrafted in all formats. Jeff Baker is still in the mix for playing time, so keep an eye on things if Barney falters and Baker takes advantage of additional at-bats.
  • Third baseman Placido Polanco of the Philadelphia Phillies is healthy again and thriving as a fantasy baseball hitting machine. His 41 hits in just 26 games led to a 5x5 line of .398/18/2/19/3 from a player with an ADP of 203.3 on ESPN and 229.5 on Yahoo!
  • Shortstop Jed Lowrie of the Boston Red Sox is proving he deserves to be in the mix for at-bats, having already made an appearance at all four infield positions, by producing a "legendary" 5x5 line of .368/13/3/12/0 in April.
  • Outfielder Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals was considered by most to be on the downside of his career but has proved everyone wrong by opening the season with a 5x5 line of .393/23/8/22/0. Could he return to the player that has averaged 33 home runs and 110 RBI per 162 games played over his 13 year career? Current fantasy owners sure hope so.
  • Outfielder Jeff Francoeur of the Kansas City Royals has regained some of his 2005-2007 lightning that made him a fantasy-relevant player breaking in with the Braves. Both he and the Royals were the butt of many offseason-signing jokes but who's laughing at his 5x5 line of .314/16/5/20/3 now?
  • Outfielder Alfonso Soriano of the Chicago Cubs is tied for the major league lead in home runs with 10. Let that soak in for a moment as you look at the entire 5x5 line of .258/15/10/20/0 he was able to put up in April. His average and the fact that he's not stealing bases are both negatives but, for a player with an ADP of 207.8 on ESPN and 206.6 on Yahoo!, the risk versus reward factor is proving to be low at this point. Plus if he totally tanks it from this point on, very few owners will feel bad about dropping him to waivers.
This All-Star team deserves a place for two additional stars:
  • Outfielder Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals has gone from highly touted rookie to fantasy baseball bust to roto-relevant in just five seasons in the big leagues. His early 5x5 line of .339/20/2/19/2 has ranked inside the top-20 on ESPN (17th) and Yahoo! (19th), thanks to a recent 19-game hitting streak.
  • Outfielder Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays became a "legend" too when called upon to fill in for the retirement-bound Manny Ramirez. A recent 0-17 streak brought his 5x5 line down to .289/17/1/8/10, but quick reacting fantasy owners grabbing him off waivers aren't complaining...yet. It will be interesting to see what his numbers look like after the month of May is over.
No All-Star team would be complete without some pitchers, so here are a few that have dominated out of virtually nowhere:
  • Starting pitcher Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals went from undrafted to a must-own with a 4-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP start to the season.
  • Starting pitcher James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has provided owners that drafted him in ESPN (203.9) and Yahoo! (225.2) leagues plenty to smile about by going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 46.1 innings pitched.
  • Rookie starting pitcher Michael Pineda of the Seattle Mariners has started of his career with five straight quality starts and a 4-1 record, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings. His ADP of 225.1 on ESPN and 237.4 on Yahoo! prove there were some very savvy owners grabbing him in the last few rounds of drafts.
  • Starting pitcher Justin Masterson of the Cleveland Indians went 5-0 in April with five quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and seems ready to live up to the hype Red Sox fans witnessed back in 2008.
  • Relief pitcher Brandon League of the Seattle Mariners has stepped in brilliantly for the injured David Aardsma as closer, going 7-for-7 in saves with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Could a closer controversy be brewing? It will be interesting to watch what develops as Aardsma is due back soon.
  •  Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth of the Tampa Bay Rays has been given the first chance to be the team's closer and has done a good job, saving his first five chances before blowing a save on the last day of April. With young arms Joel Peralta and Jake McGee and an injured J.P. Howell due back soon, you wonder how much longer Farnsworth will get the call to close games.
So there are your April 2010 Waiver Saviors All-Stars. What players were you able to grab off waivers in your leagues who've made the most difference to your success in April? Are you daily or weekly change leagues? Which do you prefer?

Did You Know?: April 29th, 2011

NYM
If you weren't already aware, know this. I am a box score guy. I love the simplicity of the story it tells with numbers. I'm also excited about all of the new baseball statistics that seem to pop up yearly and even though I'm a little late to the game in understanding their utmost importance in using them when evaluating fantasy baseball players, it doesn't mean that I'm not paying attention. I hope to incorporate more of them into my analysis as I see fit. Stay tuned.

Now on to some statistics which you may not be aware of nearly a full month into the season in the latest installment of Did You Know?:
  • Adam Dunn has just two home runs and 10 RBI in 19 games this season, while Ben Zobrist accomplished those numbers in yesterday's doubleheader.
  • Names I did not expect to see in the top 10 in Total Bases this early in the season: Lance Berkman (1st), Jeff Francoeur (tied 6th) and Ike Davis (tied 9th).
  • Aren't stolen base guys supposed to be stealing bases? Juan Pierre has five steals and has been caught six times. Brett Gardner has four steals and has been caught three times. Chone Figgins has three steals and three caught stealings.
  • Josh Johnson has allowed just 13 hits in 34 innings pitched. Batters are "hitting" .116 off of him this season.
  • Austin Jackson is hitting just .167 (16/96) and has nearly twice the number of K's (31) as hits (16).
  • Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .284 with a .303 BABIP with zero walks in 95 at-bats. He must like his own chances when swinging the bat. Hopefully you don't own him in an OBP league.
  • Ryan Dempster has allowed 33 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. His ERA of 9.58 is higher than his K/9 ratio of 8.42.
  • At age 37, Johnny Damon is on pace for 130 RBI in just 136 games played (20 RBI in 21 of Rays first 35 games). Don't forget about 26 HR/26 SB pace, too.
  • Jorge Posada and Russell Martin have each hit six home runs in exactly 69 at-bats this season. Martin is batting .290 compared to Posada's .130 average.
  • Huston Street leads the majors with nine saves and is on pace for 63 total.
  • Matt Garza has 41 K's in just 30.2 innings pitched for a staggering 12.03 K/9 ratio yet he's 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA and an ugly WHIP of 1.47.
Are there some surprising statistics floating around out there already that have you scrambling to acquire or drop a player? If so, share them with the group, please. We all have a right to know.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from April 19th, 2011

NYM
Here are some fantasy baseball tidbits I picked up from games played on April 19th, 2011:
  • DH Adam Dunn, CHW has two hits in his last 27 at-bats and may be dropped down in the batting order.
  • RP J.P. Howell, TB, coming back from left shoulder surgery, is set to pitch in extended spring training after throwing a 35-pitch batting practice session. The reliever is not expected to rejoin the team until mid-May.
  • C Matt Wieters, BAL is 5-for-5 with eight RBI this season with runners in scoring position.
  • OF Nick Markakis, BAL has only one hit in his last 20 at-bats.
  • OF Ryan Braun, MIL is 9 for 19 in his last five games, and has reached safely in all 17 games this season.
  • Toronto activated RP Frank Francisco (right shoulder) off the 15-day DL and optioned SP Jesse Litsch to Triple-A Las Vegas. Francisco will be in the mix for saves with Jon Rauch depending on the situation.
  • 3B David Wright, NYM is hitless in his last 16 at-bats with seven strikeouts.
  • OF Michael Bourn, HOU is 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts this year and has swiped 16 straight dating to last season.
  • SP Josh Johnson, FLA is now 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA, a 0.59 WHIP and a 9.00 K/9 ratio this season. He's allowed four hits or less in each of his four starts and batters are hitting .112 against him.
  • OF Logan Morrison, FLA left the game in the fifth inning with a strained arch in his left foot and hopes to be back in the lineup within a couple of days.
  • CL J.J. Putz, ARI is 4-for-4 in save chances this season with an 11.57 K/9 ratio over 7 IP.
  • 3B/OF Alex Gordon, KC went 2-for-4, raising his batting average to .361, with two stolen bases.
  • OF Grady Sizemore, CLE is 5-for-9 with two doubles, two RBI and a home run in two games since returning from knee surgery. Indians manager Manny Acta plans to let him play three or four games every five days or so. Plan accordingly.
  • OF Andre Ethier, LAD went 1-for-4 and extended his hitting streak to 16 games. He's hitting .362 on the season.

Line of the Day: April 9th, 2011

NYM
OF Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets showed signs of life by going 2-for-4 with two home runs in an 8-4 win over the Washington Nationals. He also drove in three runs and score three times.

Line: 4 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; 2 HR

Beltran had an ADP of 203.3 (on ESPN) and an ownership rate of 99.4% while his Yahoo! ADP of 178.8 has only translated to a 68% ownership rate. Odd. He looks healthy (at this point) and could be in line for a nice bounce-back season. If he's available in your Yahoo! league, it might be a good time to pick him up.


Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

A Steady Stream: Probables For 04/05/2011

NYM
A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Tuesday, 04/05/2011 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:
  • Anibal Sanchez, FLA (65.6% ESPN; 46% Yahoo! owned) @ home vs WAS (Jason Marquis) - In the first three games of the season, the Washington Nationals, as a team, are batting .209 with 1 HR and 8 Runs Scored. RISK: LOW
  • Derek Lowe, ATL (58.1% E; 59% Y!)  @ MIL (Yovani Gallardo) - Reports have Lowe using his slider more and increasing his K/9 from a career rate of 5.9 to a rate of 8.6 over his last five starts of 2010. He opened 2011 with 6 K's in 5.2 IP (9.5 K/9) and faces a Brewers team that strikes out a lot but also hit home runs (7 in 4 games). RISK: MODERATE
  • Gavin Floyd, CHW (24.4% E; 50% Y!) @ KC (Luke Hochevar) - The White Sox are scoring runs in bunches (8 runs per game) and Floyd should be the beneficiary of this lineup facing Hochevar. RISK: LOW
  • Mike Leake, CIN (1.1% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs HOU (J.A. Happ) - As a team, the Reds are batting .350 in their first three games. Leake should be able to control an Astros offense (and I use that term lightly) that has a 28/3 K/BB ratio. RISK: LOW
  • Jo-Jo Reyes, TOR (0.1% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs OAK (Dallas Braden) - Toronto is back to hitting home runs and scoring runs while Oakland is pitching well but struggling offensively. Is Reyes worth owning? This start will speak volumes about his fantasy value. RISK: MODERATE
Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:
  • Michael Pineda, SEA (16.9% E; 31% Y!) @ Alexi Ogando, TEX (3.8% E; 8% Y!) - This could turn into a slugfest with two rookie pitchers going. I've got my eye on these two pitchers for future streaming opportunities. RISK: HIGH x 2
  • James McDonald, PIT (4.2% E; 11% Y!) @ Kyle McClellan, STL (5.7% E; 30% Y!) - Again, too soon in the season to commit to either of these guys but worth monitoring. RISK: MODERATE x 2
  • Chris Young, NYM (1.2% E; 17% Y!) @ PHI (Cole Hamels) - The Phillies, even without Chase Utley, can be a scary offensive team, especially at home. RISK: HIGH
Is it too early to already be looking at streaming a pitcher or two? Was that part of your draft strategy (LIMA Plan)? What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

2011 Draft Results: First Basemen Targeted

NYM
If you are new to the world of fantasy baseball, you should be very aware that first base is traditionally a position of great depth filled with some of the most impactful players. Heading into the 2011 season, this still holds true. MockDraftCentral.com is showing 10 of the top 50 players being drafted currently qualify as first basemen. If your league uses a corner infielder (CI or 1B/3B), extra infielder (IF), designated hitter (DH) or even a utility slot (UTIL) or two, there's a great opportunity to add one or more of these highly coveted players.

I went into all of my drafts having some players within the different tiers of first basemen as targets but draft position was really going to determine who I grabbed in the early rounds and how that would shape my entire roster. I wound up drafting 1st, 6th, 8th and 7th in my four snake drafts which meant three of my four drafts would have a lot of familiar faces...so I thought.

But before getting to the snake draft results, I wanted to talk about my online auction draft, which had me aggressively biding for the players I deemed "must have" and produced some interesting results:
I was in on all of the big name first basemen (Pujols, Miggy, AGon, etc) early but wound up bailing when I realized the prices were going to go a lot higher than I was willing to go. That strategy allowed me to focus in on and win such big names as Tulo ($39) and CarGo ($34) and drop down into the next tier of players and outbid everyone for a nice Dunn/Konerko duo to fill my 1B and CI roster slots. Moreland was a definite "sleeper" target while  Johnson was simply a late-round flier to add some possible depth to my bench, IF he wins the starting job in Tampa Bay. There were 390 players drafted in this league, so I fell pretty confident in what I was able to acquire and look forward to putting this plan into action.


Snake drafts definitely allow you to focus in on player tiers a little easier than an auction because most people are choosing from the best available ranked players (minus the ones you know will be autopicked). And here are the results of my four snake drafts for players that currently qualify at first base (draft pick in parenthesis):
Okay, so I may have a man-crush on Adam Dunn. What's not to love about a guy that can crush 40 bombs in his sleep? The possibility of a devastatingly low batting average will always be there but I try to balance that out on my roster with a player that might offset the two categories where Dunn won't help you much these days (batting average and stolen bases). I believe so heavily in this strategy that one of the first fantasy baseball articles I ever had the opportunity to write was titled "Surviving Adam Dunn" in August of 2008.

The league where the only first baseman I drafted was the best one, Pujols, was a lot shallower than the other three and I was able to grab the versatile Michael Young (97) for my CI slot and heavily invest in quality outfielders in the early rounds; Matt Kemp (24), Ichiro Suzuki (48), Jayson Werth (49) and Hunter Pence (73).

Heavily investing three very late-round picks in Brandon Belt ("sleeper"?) seemed worth the upside risk of him becoming this season's Buster Posey. There's still a chance he will break camp with the Giants and receive a ton of playing time but, if not, June could be more realistic for his arrival. Either way, I was willing to take a shot to see how the first few weeks of the season play out and whether or not Belt will bring me any value on this relatively inexpensive investment.

Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez are similar offensive players (.270/20/80) and the best available to fill a roster need in the middle rounds. Period. I may not be overly excited to own either but I think, at the end of the year, their steady production will prove to be valuable to the overall success of my teams.

Similarly to my catcher targets, my teams have a lot of commonalities on purpose. One, it makes it easier to manage multiple teams when it comes to injuries or slumps and two, these are the players I am most interested in following. The goal of all of my teams is to win (especially the one money league I decided to join) but I also enjoy having fun as a fan of the game of baseball.

What strategies did you use when it came to drafting players that qualified at first base? What unique settings does your league have in place that made some players more favorable than others? Do you change strategies based on a classic rotisserie league versus a head-to-head scoring league? Please feel free to comment on my players or share your personal experiences when looking back on your draft(s) outcomes.

2011 Draft Results: Catchers Targeted

NYM
This season, I participated in five fantasy baseball leagues of varying types of formats but, for the most part, the players I targeted were pretty much the same. Now, that doesn't mean that I got all the same players in all five leagues but there were some commonalities.

I also want to go on record as saying I think two-catcher leagues of any type are ridiculous. Why as a commissioner would you want to force managers to carry what in my opinion are statistically the worst offensive bunch of players in the game? That being said, the first draft I participated in this season was an "experts" league with an online auction draft and wouldn't you know it...a two-catcher league. The difficulty level was escalated by the fact there are 13 teams and 30-man rosters per team (equals at least 26 catchers being drafted).

My strategy for this league was to get involved in the bidding for the two catchers I valued as being the best (as do most), Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, and hope to walk away with one and spend a little money later in the draft on a guy like Miguel Montero or Carlos Ruiz. Both Mauer and Posey were thrown out early and I was pretty aggressive in the bidding as planned, assuming each would go in the $20-$30+ range in this format. Well, when the dust settled, here's what my two-catcher strategy yielded:
  •  Mauer ($24) and Posey ($20)
Now, I'm not shedding any tears over having this duo on my roster, unlike the owner who's rostering Josh Thole and Devin Mesoraco (um, who?). I regret being so aggressive and using $44 of my $330 budget (13%) on a position I was hoping to get bargains but I'm very excited to see what these two can do, offensively, this year.



My four remaining drafts (three of which I am the commissioner) were all single-catcher formats but I went in to each with the strategy of trying to get an upper-to-middle tier catcher early, depending on my draft position, and grabbing a second catcher at the end of the draft for bench depth and spot starts. Here's what that strategy wound up producing (draft pick in parenthesis):
In all four of these leagues, I went in targeting Soto as my primary catcher but he only fell to me once. My backup plan for a starter was Montero and that worked well for me twice. I can live with that to start the season. My biggest failure at catcher came in my last draft of the season. Soto, Montero and even Ruiz were all gone before the 140th pick and I passed on Mike Napoli with the 190th pick, only to see him taken with the 191st pick.

So I am left hoping Montero and Soto provide me with with enough offensive production to make the backup catcher a position I don't have to carry the entire season. My problem is that I am heavily invested in Martin returning to some level of his old self. Will having Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada as influences be a good or bad thing? I'm hoping he can provide a .270/60/10/60/10 line at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I guarantee you I won't be in the Russell Martin business very long if it looks like he won't be effective. I'll be searching the waiver wires for who's hot and dumping who's not.

How did you go about drafting catchers this season? Do you have a preference for one or two-catcher formats? In hindsight, did you overly invest in specific players across multiple drafts like I did? Use the comments section to share your thoughts of my catcher targets and your strategies during your 2011 drafts.

Ups and Downs: 03/18/2011

NYM

As we continue to get closer to Opening Day, now seems like an appropriate time to publish another edition of Ups and Downs. Jobs are being won, injuries aren't healing as quickly as expected, veterans are being released and rookies are being sent to the minors. Here are the ones catching my eye and the impact they could have on your fantasy baseball roster.

Stock is Rising:
  • C/1B/3B/OF Jake Fox, BAL leads the MLB in home runs this Spring with seven while hitting .356 (16/45) yet still fighting to make in onto the Orioles' Opening Day roster. Let's get something straight, though. Spring stats don't matter. If Fox catches on with the Orioles as a super utility guy with catcher eligibility, he could be worth a very late round pick in deep mixed leagues with two-catcher rosters. Is he really much worse than having to select Jeff Mathis?
  • 3B Chipper Jones, ATL is hitting .386 this Spring with three home runs and 11 RBI and looking healthy...for the moment. There will always be the risk of injury with Jones but at the moment, he's playing himself back into fantasy relevant. We all keep hearing that third base is going to be shallow in 2011 and even shallower if your league uses an extra CI or IF position. Keep an eye on his health as Spring winds down or at least until your league drafts.
  • 1B Chris Davis, TEX has been touted as a sleeper for the last few years and hasn't produced enough when given the chance to help most fantasy owners. Well, this Spring, Davis is hitting .410 (16/39) with four home runs and an MLB-best 15 RBI as rumblings of "play me or trade me" start coming out of Texas. Will there be enough at bats to hand out with Michael Young and Mitch Moreland in the picture? Keep a close eye on how this one continues to play out over the next couple of weeks and you could truly have a sleeper on your hands as most owners are targeting Moreland late in drafts.
  • OF Michael Morse, WAS seems to be playing himself into the Nationals' starting left fielder with a very hot Spring. He's hitting .385 (15/39) with five home runs and showing the 20-25 HR potential he displayed last season (15 HR in 266 AB).
  • SP Jered Weaver, LAA is currently the 11th starting pitcher being drafted, according to
    MockDraftCentral.com. So far this Spring, Weaver has pitched 13.1 innings and produced a 17/0 K/BB ratio. Somehow Zack Greinke is still being drafted ahead of Weaver. Absorb that information when you select Weaver as your fantasy baseball ace.

Stock is Falling:
  • 2B Chase Utley, PHI makes the list of falling stocks for the second time this Spring. His knee doesn't seem to be getting any better and no timetable for his return is in place. It's hard to find the kind of fantasy numbers he provides from the second base position, so I can't recommend skipping him in drafts, but if you do draft him just make sure you also draft a serviceable Plan B.
  • SP Matt Garza, CHC is having a rough Spring so far with the Cubbies. In 10.2 innings, he has a 10.13 ERA, has allowed 13 hits and 12 earned runs and walked seven while striking out eight. These are just meaningless numbers in the grand scheme of things but are worth paying attention to when you are looking to draft a 8th to 10th round pitcher.
  • OF Justin Upton, ARI is having a relatively productive Spring (.289/3/7) but he's stolen one base and been thrown out FIVE times. Who does he think he is, Matt Kemp? Again, it's only Spring but something to be aware of if you are drafting him for his speed.
  • C J. P. Arencibia, TOR was on many people's sleeper lists for catchers and he isn't exactly living up to the hype. So far this Spring, he's 5/38 (.132 BA) for six total bases with 11 strikeouts. Might be time to wake up that sleeper.
  • SP Shaun Marcum, MIL is battling through some shoulder tightness this Spring. The numbers to like is that he currently has a 11/1 K/BB ratio. The numbers to fear are that he's allowed 15 hits in 11.2 innings pitched and reportedly lots 1-2mph off his fastball.
  • OF Bryce Harper, WAS being sent down was no surprise to most. Check out how fellow BBA members and I forecasted his 2011 and beyond.
  • 2B Luis Castillo, NYM was finally released by the Mets. Enough said.
At this time of year everyone is walking around telling you that Spring Training statistics are worthless. There's definitely truth to that but some numbers can't be ignored. Pay attention to what managers and coaches are saying about players and which jobs are being won and lost heading towards Opening Day.

Finding Keepers: New York Mets

NYM
Not a ton seemed to go well for the New York Mets on the field in 2010 but they did manage to have some fantasy-relevant players and some of those performances translate into keeper selections.

A lot has been made of 3B David Wright's increasing strikeout numbers and decreasing walk numbers but he still managed to finish the season as the 20th-ranked fantasy player overall and the 2nd-ranked third baseman (on ESPN). Why's that? Because most leagues don't care about strikeouts and walks. Fans will continue to focus on the negative because they expect big(ger) things from Wright but fantasy managers shouldn't get caught up in all that and simply focus on the statistics that matter most in your leagues: .283/87/29/103/19.

OF Angel Pagan earned his first full season's worth of at bats and responded with a very nice fantasy line of .290/80/11/69/37. Pagan is slated to be the Mets right fielder in 2011 but what type of numbers should be expected? If this is the ceiling on his production, then one must assume his numbers will be down this season. RotoChamp has him producing a line of .278/79/11/64/30 in 561 at bats while CAIRO sees him at .278/54/8/42/17 in just 383 at bats. That's quite a disparity. I had him as a fringe keeper in my mind before doing the research (because of the steals) and would not be willing to gamble on him at this point with such a limited body of work.

From 2005 through 2008, SS Jose Reyes was a fantasy baseball god. He averaged 195 hits, 32 doubles, 16 triples, 14 home runs, 66 RBI, 113 runs and 64 stolen bases per season. He only managed 36 games in 2009 and 133 in 2010 but still managed to stay on pace with his career numbers. If you look at the 169 game totals for the last two season, this is what you get: 200 hits, 36 doubles, 12 triples, 13 home runs, 69 RBI, 101 runs and 41 stolen bases. Look familiar? This may be the year to buy into him as turning it all around and putting up the numbers that made him a top 5 pick in years gone by. PS, Reyes is still just 27 years old.


OF Jason Bay's first season with the Mets was a disaster, to say the least and leaves a lot of unknowns heading into draft day. Bay had averaged 33 HR and 108 RBI (per 162 games) prior to joining the Mets and was on pace for a mere 10 HR with 80 RBI before suffering a season-ending concussion in late July. Add in Citi Field's ability to suck the life out of a power-hitter's bat and things aren't looking so great for Bay as a keeper for 2011. Way too many "ifs".

Best of the rest but not keepers:
  • SP Mike Pelfrey will be called upon to be the number one starter and has the potential to win 15 games but for his career he's not a strikeout pitcher (5.1 K/9), has a historically high WHIP (1.46) and a low K/BB ratio of 1.56. Not keeper numbers.
  • 1B Ike Davis should provide 20 HR and 75 RBI with a .260s batting average. You need to get more production out of a fantasy keeper at first base.
  • OF Carlos Beltran is another Met finding it hard to stay healthy and on the field. He nearly averages a career 30/30 (28/29)! Are there more years left in those knees? Too much risky involved to find out.
  • C Josh Thole has shown the ability to offensively-productive catcher and the starting job is his to lose. Definitely a late-round pick in deep leagues using two catchers but not a keeper.
Unfortunately for the Mets, they are stuck with a lot of bad contract and a lot of bad players on their roster for 2011. The good news is that 2012 offers some promise. Their 2011 payroll commitments currently total around $125M but will drop to just around $60M in 2012. That should translate into them being players in next winter's free agent market and increase the amount of keeper options.

Line of the Day: 09/05/2010

NYM
1B Ike Davis, NYM was 4-for-6 with a double, home run, three RBI and three runs in the Mets' 18-5 domination of the Chicago Cubs. Fantasy owners should be encouraged that Davis has two September home runs after hitting NONE in the entire month of August. He now projects as a 20+ HR first baseman and should be a staple in the heart of the Mets' lineup for years to come.


Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

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Line of the Day: 09/03/2010

NYM
3B David Wright, NYM was 3-for-5 with a double, home run, three RBI and two runs in a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs. After disappointing power numbers in 2009 (10 HR in 144 games), Wright is back on pace with his career numbers for 27 HR/108 RBI and his 22 SBs are great too. Wright may never be a first round pick but  owners will definitely get back solid second round numbers.


Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Like what you see here on COSFBA? Think a friend or family member might enjoy it too? Please use one of the "share" options below to help spread the word about COSFBA. Much appreciated.

Line of the Day: 08/13/2010

NYM
SP R.A. Dickey, NYM pitched a complete game, one-hit shutout against the Phillies, striking out seven and walking just one. The veteran knuckleballer continues to produce at an improbable rate (2.43 ERA/1.15 WHIP) and should be owned or at least streamed at this point. Widely available (25.8% E; 35% Y! owned) if you are willing to take a chance on him.


Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Line of the Day: 08/12/2010

NYM
SP Johan Santana, NYM pitched a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the Colorado Rockies, striking out 10 and walking two. Santana is 5-1 in his last nine starts, allowing zero runs in four games and one run in three while going at least seven innings in eight of those nine starts. Surprisingly, this was only the second time this season that he's struck out 10 or more batters (both in August). Now would be a great time for fantasy owners to see him return to dominant form.


Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Waiver Saviors: 08/07/2010

NYM
Here are some names of note worth a look in your league(s) that are widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues in the latest installment of Waiver Saviors:
  • C Carlos Ruiz, PHI (20.8% E; 27% Y!) hit .327 (18/55) in July and is off to a .417 (10/24) start in August. If you are thin at catcher and he's available in your league, grab him. Catcher is a position that many bail on in one-catcher formats if they miss out on an upper tier guy, so he may be easier to get than in a two-catcher format league.
  • 2B/3B/SS/OF Omar Infante, ATL (34.3% E; 18% Y!) hit .429 (27/63) in July and .357 (10/28) in August. Toss a current 10-game hitting streak and a full-time role as a result of Martin Prado's injury. He won't bring more than a hot bat to your roster but he can fill a lot of holes while he's on fire.
  • 3B Chris Johnson, HOU (60.7% E; 34% Y!) hit .414 in June, .359 in July and .368 so far in August. He's hit in 18 of his last 19 games, accumulating 30 hits, while driving in 11 runs in his past six games. He's the 3rd-ranked third baseman over the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater. Fantasy owners...WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR???
  • OF Dexter Fowler, COL (31.4% E; 7% Y!) is hitting .341 (14/41) over the last 15 days and a crisp .400  (4/10) to start the month of August. Colorado is notorious for heating up as the season winds down and you can expect Fowler to be a part of this season's surge.
  • SP R.A. Dickey, NYM (31.5% E; 39% Y!) is 1-4 in his last eight starts. So why would I be recommending you add him? During that span, he's recorded two no decisions in which he gave up ZERO runs. Also, 12 of his 15 starts have been of the quality nature while compiling a 2.36 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Fantasy wins are unpredictable but ratios speak volumes.
  • SP Brett Cecil, TOR (22.4% E; 31% Y!) had a rough June (5 starts, 2-3, 534 ERA) but has been much better in July and August (6-for-6 in QS, 2-0, 1.60 ERA). Definitely worth streaming at this point.
  • RP Aaron Heilman, ARI (10.1% E; 12% Y!) is now the Diamondbacks' closer. For whatever that's worth, if you need saves, Heilman is available and should get first crack at any save chances. Good luck!
If you're still active and within striking distance of the lead or a payout spot, working the waiver wire and cutting ties on dead weight could mean the distance in a title or a larger payday.

Did You Know? 07/10/2010

NYM
Here are some statistical tidbits worth knowing:
  • SP Brett Myers, HOU has 18 consecutive outings of six or more innings.
  • SP Cliff Lee, TEX allowed three home runs in his first nine innings as a Ranger, after allowing a measly five homers in 105 2/3 innings with the Mariners.
  • 2B/3B Neil Walker, PIT ranks fourth among National League rookies with a .289 batting average and has reached safely in 27 of his 34 games.
  • C/1B Buster Posey, SF has homered five times in his last seven games and hitting .351 in 37 games. How is he only owned in 79 % of ESPN leagues and 62% of Yahoo! leagues?
  • OF Nick Markakis, BAL, a lefty, is hitting .392 (40/102) versus lefties.
  • OF Michael Stanton, FLA hit his third in the last five games and pushed his extra-base hit streak to six games. He's struck out 44 times and only walked six times in just 27 games.
  • SP Ian Kennedy, ARI has allowed 19 home runs in 18 starts but has struck out 100 in 111.1 innings pitched.
  • OF Adam Jones, BAL hit his 13th home run and is on pace for 26. His career high is 19.
  • SP Scott Kazmir, LAA is 0-4 in his last four starts and has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings.
  • C Chris Snyder, ARI is tied for fourth among all catchers with ten homers.
  • OF Angel Pagan, NYM has five multi-hit efforts in the last six games, going 12-for-26 with five extra-base hits and four stolen bases. His 19 stolen bases have him tied for fourth in the NL.
Hope you find these statistical gems helpful heading into the All-Star break. Be sure to look me up on Twitter, if you're into that sort of thing.

2010 Waiver Savior All-Stars: 06/26/2010

NYM
With everyone naming their All-Star teams, I thought it was about time I released my version based on value for your money. Most of these guys were either very late round picks or waiver wire guys once the season started. Here we go!

CATCHER
Starter - Miguel Olivo, COL (.296/31/10/33/4)
Backup - John Buck, TOR (.269/24/12/38/0)

FIRST BASE
Starter - Paul Konerko, CHW (.301/42/18/54/0)
Backup - Troy Glaus, ATL (.270/39/14/55/0)

SECOND BASE
Starter - Martin Prado, ATL (.330/53/7/31/2)
Backup - Kelly Johnson, ARI (.268/47/13/35/5)

THIRD BASE
Starter - Scott Rolen, CIN (.303/40/16/48/0)
Backup - Alberto Callaspo, KC (.284/34/7/35/3)

SHORTSTOP
Starter - Alex Gonzalez, TOR (.262/38/13/38/1)
Backup - Juan Uribe, SF (.273/36/12/45/1)

OUTFIELD
Starter - Vernon Wells, TOR (.282/43/18/45/3)
Starter - Marlon Byrd, CHC (.319/40/9/35/4)
Starter - Corey Hart, MIL (.272/35/18/55/4)
Backup - Jose Bautista, TOR (.233/47/20/49/3)
Backup - Scott Podsednik, KC (.295/35/3/31/20)

STARTING PITCHER
Starter - Mike Pelfrey, NYM (10-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Backup - Carlos Silva, CHC (8-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

CLOSER
Starter - Matt Capps, WAS (22 Saves)
Backup - Neftali Feliz, TEX (20 Saves)

So there it is. If you were savvy enough to draft some of these players or scoop them up off waivers once they got hot, you're probably running away with your league, regardless of format.

Agree? Disagree? Vocalize it in the comments section or hit me up on Twitter (@COSFBA).

*Statistics accurate through 06/25/2010

Waiver Saviors: 06/17/2010

NYM
Here are some names of note that are widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues in the latest installment of Waiver Saviors:

  • 2B/OF Sean Rodriguez, TB (41% E; 18% Y!) was an early season sleeper while tearing it up during Spring Training but crawled out of the gate by hitting only .184 in April. Well Rodriguez is hitting .367 in June with 3 HR, 12 RBI and 3 SB. Anyone producing and playing regularly in the Rays lineup deserves to be owned.
  • OF Corey Patterson, BAL (0.3% E; 1% Y!) is worth the look if you are desperate for steals. Over the last seven days, Patterson is 10/29 (.345 BA) with 4 SB. I said "desperate", didn't I?
  • OF Andres Torres, SF (26% E; 17% Y!) is hitting .293 on the season with 30 runs and 11 stolen bases. His defense has kept him in the lineup and the offense has been a pleasant surprise for owners that keep sending him out there.
  • C John Buck, TOR (24% E; 36% Y!) is sporting a .265/24/12/35/0 line this season and should be owned even in the shallowest of leagues. He's crept up to the number three catcher on ESPN's Player Rater and the inaugural nominee of COSFBA's "Line of the Day".
  • SP Jonathon Niese, NYM (21% E; 14% Y!) is riding a nice three-game winning streak (23 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 0.78 WHIP) and could be a nice addition to any fantasy baseball staff while he's hot.
  • SP/RP David Hernandez, BAL (4% E; 9% Y!) has given up four hits and allowed one earned run in 8.2 IP since being moved to the bullpen. Oh, by the way, he's also recorded two saves and recorded a win. Alfredo Simon is active but Hernandez still got the call on the O's last save opp. Keep an eye on how this plays out but both may be worth owning if your league uses holds.
I know you can find this information on your own or even rely on sites that have a full staff of writers and researchers, but I hope you come to COSFBA and visit often to read and appreciate one man's take on a game (baseball and fantasy baseball) that he loves so much.

Follow me on Twitter and check me out on Facebook, especially if you are a Colorado-based fantasy baseball player. 

Ups and Downs: 05/29/2010

NYM
This edition of Ups and Downs will look at the top five players being added and dropped the most (according to ESPN leagues) and the possible reasons why.

  • 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (+30.7%) has 5 HR and 16 RBI over the last 15 days. 
  • C Mike Napoli, LAA (+27.1%) is back to being the Angels primary catcher and is hitting .349 with 5 HR and 11 RBI over the last 15 days.
  • OF Jose Guillen, KC (+26.2%) has seen his ownership numbers fluctuate recently. He went on a 3 HR, 6 RBI two-game binge that probably caused a spike in ownership.
  • SP Mike Leake, CIN (+25.8%) continues to produce quality starts, strikeouts and wins (without a loss) and should be owned in all competitive leagues.
  • SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM (+23.7%) is 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and riding a three-game win streak.
  • SP Brad Penny, STL (-36.8%) hit the DL and then promptly waivers. His run of four straight losses prior to the injury probably added to the mass drops. Expect him to be a nice add once he's back and proves healthy.
  • OF Andruw Jones, CHW (-23.3%) is no longer hitting home runs (0 in his last 13 games) and has seen his average drop down to .230.
  • C Ivan Rodriguez, WAS (-22.8%) went on the DL with a bad back, which is never a good sign for a 38-year old catcher, regardless of how well he was hitting (.325). Keep an eye on him when he returns if you are in need of a catcher.
  • RP Alfredo Simon, BAL (-22.5%) had a chance at the Orioles closer role prior to his injury. Their bullpen is a free-for-all and Simon probably lost his chance at remaining the closer.
  • SP Wade LeBlanc, SD (-20.9%) has been knocked around of late (0-3, 13 ER, 15.2 IP) and currently not worth rostering. He could be a nice streamer with the right match up.
Be sure to check out COSFBA on Facebook and Twitter, too.
*Statistics accurate through games played on 05/28/2010.

A Steady Stream: 05/11/2010

NYM
A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league. My goal is to revisit the streamers to see how accurate my assessment of the risk was (or not).

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Wednesday, 05/12/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:
  • Edwin Jackson, ARI (45% E; 55% Y! owned) @ home vs LAD (Kuroda)- Jackson has been horrific over his last three starts (13.1 IP, 28 H, 21 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, .500 OBA). Until he shows he's righted the ship, I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
  • Carl Pavano, MIN (42% E; 45% Y!) @ home vs CHW (Danks) - Why isn't Pavano owned in more leagues? Over his last three starts, he's gone 23 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 18 K but only 1-2 with 3 QS. He's getting hit hard at home this season (5.14 ERA) but has nice career numbers against the White Sox (5 GS, 3-2, 2 CG, 2 SHO, 2.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). RISK: LOW
  • Derek Lowe, ATL (37% E; 53% Y!) @ MIL (Gallardo) - In Lowe's seven starts in 2010, he's managed only 38 IP and 1 QS. Need more reason to avoid Lowe? How about a 23:19 K:BB ratio. Look elsewhere! RISK: DANGER!
  • Fausto Carmona, CLE (28% E; 31% Y!) @ KC (Davies) - Carmona has been good, so far, this season. He's recorded 5 QS in 6 GS but a troubling 17:18 K:BB ratio. He has poor career numbers against in 11 G versus KC (59 IP, 72 H, 4.73 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). RISK: MODERATE
  • Carlos Silva, CHC (16% E; 27% Y!) @ home vs FLA (Volstad) - Silva was streaming along quite nicely, as proven here and here, until his last two starts (10 IP, 18 H, 9 ER). He's also battling tightness in his neck. RISK: HIGH
  • Gio Gonzalez, OAK (9% E; 18% Y!) @ TEX (Holland) - Gonzalez is good and only getting better but his talent is still very raw (35.2 IP, 26 H, 19 BB, 34 K). I don't like this match up in Texas. I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
  • Clayton Richard, SD (2% E; 21% Y!) @ SF (Cain) - In his last two starts, Richard has gone 11 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 13 K. The 13 K is 11 IP is nice but the 8 BB are troubling. Not sure he pulls out a win, but I like Richard to pitch well. RISK: EVEN
  • Chris Volstad, FLA (8% E; 8% Y!) @ CHC (Silva) - Volstad is coming off two stellar pitching performances (16 IP, 8 H, .193 OBA, 12:3 K:BB), but both were against the Nationals. I like Volstad because I don't like Silva (see above). RISK: LOW
Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:
  • Jamie Moyer, PHI (5% E; 8% Y!) @ COL (Hammel)
  • Tim Wakefield, BOS (3% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs TOR (Marcum)
  • Zach Duke, PIT (2% E; 7% Y!) @ home vs CIN (Bailey)
  • Kyle Lohse, STL (2% E; 16% Y!) @ home vs HOU (Rodriguez)
  • Jeremy Bonderman, DET (1% E; 2% Y!) @ home vs NYY (Hughes)
Not a great day to be streaming pitchers, so be careful out there. GOOD LUCK!

What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)?
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