2011 Fantasy Baseball: A Steady Stream

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A Steady Stream: Probables for May 5th, 2011

A Steady Stream

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my "stream-worthy" pitchers for games to be played on a shortened schedule for Thursday, May 5th, 2011:

Colby Lewis, TEX (50% ESPN; 54% Yahoo!) @ Jason Vargas, SEA (0.1% E; 3%Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lewis finally got things going in 2011 with an eight inning, six hit, one walk, six strikeout effort win against the A's his last time out and looked strong, too. He's 0-3 in five career starts with a 3.82 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched at SAFECO. Vargas hasn't faired well at home this season, going 0-2 in four starts with a 6.86 ERA in 21 innings pitched. VERDICT: Stream Lewis
Brandon Beachy, ATL (49.7% E; 36% Y!) vs Shaun Marcum, MIL - In 36.1 innings, Beachy is just 1-1 but has recorded a quality start in each of his last three starts. His 36:10 K:BB ratio is the real deal as is his 8.92 K/9 ratio. His 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP make him not only streamable but ownable. This is Milwaukee's second look at him and Marcum (3-1, 2.21 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) is a tough match up but a pitcher putting up number like Beachy deserves to be run out there every fifth day until he proves otherwise. VERDICT: Stream/Own Beachy
John Lackey, BOS (35.1% E; 45% Y!) vs Joel Pineiro, LAA (10.6% E; 5% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Lackey has strung together three straight quality starts after a miserable start. It helps his case that the Red Sox offense is producing. Pineiro made his first start of the season a good one against the Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) after missing the first month of the season with shoulder issues. VEDICT: Stream Lackey at home
Chris Tillman, BAL (0.4% E; 2% Y!) @ Bruce Chen, KC (8.8% E; 12% Y!) - Both pitchers are streaming options in this game. Something about this match up is screaming slugfest to me. VERDICT: Avoid both pitchers at all costs.

There's one match up involving a streamer which I really like:

Jason Hammel, COL (3.9% E; 5% Y!) @ Ian Kennedy, ARI - Hammel has quietly gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 18:8 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings pitched. Team have a .283 BAA (batting average against) and a perfectly average .301 BABIP, so I think what we are seeing is for real. In six career starts against the Rockies, Kennedy is 0-1 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 26:15 K:BB ration in 32 innings. VERDICT: Stream Hammel and be prepared to own him

Avoid streaming these available pitchers at all costs:

Jake Westbrook, STL (3% E; 3%Y!) vs Josh Johnson, FLA - Johnson should have been the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter this season. His stuff has been filthy.
Mike Pelfrey, NYM (0.9% E; 6% Y!) vs Jonathan Sanchez, SF - Pelfrey has been horrible (1-3, 7.39 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 16:13 K:BB ratio) and until he can string together several quality starts in a row, he should be avoided.
Rick Porcello, DET (3.3% E; 5% Y!) vs A.J. Burnett, NYY - On any given night, the Yankees offense can go crazy on a pitcher and they seem due. Porcello could easily be the next sacrificial lamb if he's not careful.
John Lannan, WAS (0.7% E; 1% Y!) vs Roy Halladay, PHI - This is not so much anti-Lannan as it is pro-Halladay. Look elsewhere if you are desperate for a streamable pitcher.
Homer Bailey, CIN (0.4% E; 8% Y!) vs Brett Myers, HOU - Bailey is making his first start of the season and needs to string some healthy starts together before being worth a look as a streaming option.

Some might argue that it's a little early in the season to already be streaming and that might be true for the Rotisserie crowd but head-to-head leaguers need to be looking at those match ups daily to see if there's an opportunity to win a category or two with some strategic streams.

Be sure to check back each morning to see who earns COSFBA's "Line of the Day" award and nominate your own if you disagree or had a different player of impact on your squad.

A Steady Stream: Probables For 04/05/2011

A Steady Stream

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Tuesday, 04/05/2011 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

Anibal Sanchez, FLA (65.6% ESPN; 46% Yahoo! owned) @ home vs WAS (Jason Marquis) - In the first three games of the season, the Washington Nationals, as a team, are batting .209 with 1 HR and 8 Runs Scored. RISK: LOW
Derek Lowe, ATL (58.1% E; 59% Y!) @ MIL (Yovani Gallardo) - Reports have Lowe using his slider more and increasing his K/9 from a career rate of 5.9 to a rate of 8.6 over his last five starts of 2010. He opened 2011 with 6 K's in 5.2 IP (9.5 K/9) and faces a Brewers team that strikes out a lot but also hit home runs (7 in 4 games). RISK: MODERATE
Gavin Floyd, CHW (24.4% E; 50% Y!) @ KC (Luke Hochevar) - The White Sox are scoring runs in bunches (8 runs per game) and Floyd should be the beneficiary of this lineup facing Hochevar. RISK: LOW
Mike Leake, CIN (1.1% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs HOU (J.A. Happ) - As a team, the Reds are batting .350 in their first three games. Leake should be able to control an Astros offense (and I use that term lightly) that has a 28/3 K/BB ratio. RISK: LOW
Jo-Jo Reyes, TOR (0.1% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs OAK (Dallas Braden) - Toronto is back to hitting home runs and scoring runs while Oakland is pitching well but struggling offensively. Is Reyes worth owning? This start will speak volumes about his fantasy value. RISK: MODERATE

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Michael Pineda, SEA (16.9% E; 31% Y!) @ Alexi Ogando, TEX (3.8% E; 8% Y!) - This could turn into a slugfest with two rookie pitchers going. I've got my eye on these two pitchers for future streaming opportunities. RISK: HIGH x 2
James McDonald, PIT (4.2% E; 11% Y!) @ Kyle McClellan, STL (5.7% E; 30% Y!) - Again, too soon in the season to commit to either of these guys but worth monitoring. RISK: MODERATE x 2
Chris Young, NYM (1.2% E; 17% Y!) @ PHI (Cole Hamels) - The Phillies, even without Chase Utley, can be a scary offensive team, especially at home. RISK: HIGH

Is it too early to already be looking at streaming a pitcher or two? Was that part of your draft strategy (LIMA Plan)? What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

A Steady Stream: 05/24/2010

A Steady Stream

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and available in a majority of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

Mike Leake, CIN (64% E; 50% Y!) @ home vs PIT (Maholm) - Leake is 7 of 8 in quality start, 4-0 overall, 31:9 K:BB over his last six starts while carrying a 2.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates offense may be in for a long day if Leake gets going early. RISK: LOW
Doug Fister, SEA (57% E; 51% Y!) @ home vs DET (Verlander) - Fister has gone 8 IP in 4 of 8 starts and racking up some nice peripheral stats (1.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) but only a 3-2 record. Unfortunately, he draws Verlander tomorrow and the best to hope for is a pitcher's duel. RISK: EVEN
Ian Kennedy, ARI (29% E; 35% Y!) @ COL (Chacin) - Kennedy is 2-1 in May with 1.93 ERA in 28 IP. Pitching in Colorado will always pose a risk, humidor or not, so tread lightly. RISK: SLIGHT
Ervin Santana, LAA (29% E; 57% Y!) @ home vs TOR (Romero) - Santana has been up and down so far this season, so predicting this outcome could be tricky. The Blue Jays are an offense to be reckoned with right now and should be avoided. RISK: VERY HIGH
Anibal Sanchez, FLA (4% E; 12% Y!) @ home vs ATL (Kawakami) - Sanchez is having a very good May (2-0, 24.1 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 9 BB, 22 K) but has limited career success versus Atlanta (3-5, 4.71 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). RISK: MODERATE
Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (2% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs OAK (Braden) - Roy Oswalt's not the only guy that should be asking for a trade. Guthrie has 7 of 9 quality starts but just two wins. His 3.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 3.30 K/BB ratio are all very ownable numbers, IF he wasn't on the Orioles. RISK: EVEN

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Randy Wolf, MIL (19% E; 58% Y!) @ home vs HOU (Paulino) - I drafted Wolf in three of four leagues and just recently dropped him in all four. I can't recommend streaming him at any risk until he pulls his head out of his ass and strings a couple of gems together.

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A Steady Stream: 05/11/2010

A Steady Stream

Edwin Jackson, ARI (45% E; 55% Y! owned) @ home vs LAD (Kuroda)- Jackson has been horrific over his last three starts (13.1 IP, 28 H, 21 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, .500 OBA). Until he shows he's righted the ship, I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
Carl Pavano, MIN (42% E; 45% Y!) @ home vs CHW (Danks) - Why isn't Pavano owned in more leagues? Over his last three starts, he's gone 23 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 18 K but only 1-2 with 3 QS. He's getting hit hard at home this season (5.14 ERA) but has nice career numbers against the White Sox (5 GS, 3-2, 2 CG, 2 SHO, 2.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). RISK: LOW
Derek Lowe, ATL (37% E; 53% Y!) @ MIL (Gallardo) - In Lowe's seven starts in 2010, he's managed only 38 IP and 1 QS. Need more reason to avoid Lowe? How about a 23:19 K:BB ratio. Look elsewhere! RISK: DANGER!
Fausto Carmona, CLE (28% E; 31% Y!) @ KC (Davies) - Carmona has been good, so far, this season. He's recorded 5 QS in 6 GS but a troubling 17:18 K:BB ratio. He has poor career numbers against in 11 G versus KC (59 IP, 72 H, 4.73 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). RISK: MODERATE
Carlos Silva, CHC (16% E; 27% Y!) @ home vs FLA (Volstad) - Silva was streaming along quite nicely, as proven here and here, until his last two starts (10 IP, 18 H, 9 ER). He's also battling tightness in his neck. RISK: HIGH
Gio Gonzalez, OAK (9% E; 18% Y!) @ TEX (Holland) - Gonzalez is good and only getting better but his talent is still very raw (35.2 IP, 26 H, 19 BB, 34 K). I don't like this match up in Texas. I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
Clayton Richard, SD (2% E; 21% Y!) @ SF (Cain) - In his last two starts, Richard has gone 11 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 13 K. The 13 K is 11 IP is nice but the 8 BB are troubling. Not sure he pulls out a win, but I like Richard to pitch well. RISK: EVEN
Chris Volstad, FLA (8% E; 8% Y!) @ CHC (Silva) - Volstad is coming off two stellar pitching performances (16 IP, 8 H, .193 OBA, 12:3 K:BB), but both were against the Nationals. I like Volstad because I don't like Silva (see above). RISK: LOW

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Jamie Moyer, PHI (5% E; 8% Y!) @ COL (Hammel)
Tim Wakefield, BOS (3% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs TOR (Marcum)
Zach Duke, PIT (2% E; 7% Y!) @ home vs CIN (Bailey)
Kyle Lohse, STL (2% E; 16% Y!) @ home vs HOU (Rodriguez)
Jeremy Bonderman, DET (1% E; 2% Y!) @ home vs NYY (Hughes)

Not a great day to be streaming pitchers, so be careful out there. GOOD LUCK!

What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)?

A Steady Stream: 04/25/2010

A Steady Stream

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Monday, 04/25/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

Dana Eveland, TOR (3% E; 9% Y!) @ home vs BOS - You may be drawn to his 1.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 18.2 IP, but look closer at his 9:7 K:BB and 4.34 K/9 ratios. He's hittable and BOS hits. Add in that he is facing Beckett and I want nothing to do with this matchup. RISK: HIGH
Oliver Perez, NYM (2% E; 2% Y!) @ home vs LAD - Don't be fooled by his 3.71 ERA. Look deeper at his 1.53 WHIP and 14:10 K:BB ratios in 17 IP. Perez isn't streamable until he proves he can get it done consistently. RISK: HIGH
Jeremy Bonderman, DET (2% E; 3% Y!) @ TEX - Bonderman is still trying to find his form but looked good in his last outing @ LAA (6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K). His ERA (7.20) and WHIP (1.40) are high but so is his K/9 (8.40). RISK: MODERATE
Matt Harrison, TEX (0.3% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs DET - Harrison started off well until running into BOS in his last start (4 IP, 6 ER). Regardless, he still has some decent numbers (4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .293 OBA, 5.29 K/9). RISK: MODERATE
Mat Latos, SD (78% E; 11% Y!) @ FLA vs J. Johnson - I added Latos as a streamer simply because he's only 11% owned in Yahoo! leagues. That's a head-scratcher. The Padres are hot and this has the makings of a classic pitchers duel. RISK: LOW
Carlos Silva, CHC (6% E; 21% Y!) @ home vs WAS - No one wants to believe Silva will continue to put up the numbers he has so far (3 QS, 2-0, 19 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 12:2 K:BB, 0.95 ERA, .063 WHIP, .194 OBA), but I'm buying while he's hot. RISK: SLIGHT
David Huff, CLE (0.5% E; 3% Y!) @ OAK - Huff struggled with his control in his last start (6 IP, 6 BB, 1 K) but could benefit from pitching in spacious Oakland. Was his complete game a fluke? RISK: EVEN
Zach Duke, PIT (6% E; 13% Y!) @ MIL - I still can't recommend streaming a Pittsburgh starting pitcher. Do these numbers help (24 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 8 K)? Duke is very hittable and the Brewers hit! RISK: VERY HIGH

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Kyle Davies, KC (0.1% E; 0% Y!) @ home vs SEA Hernandez
John Lannan, WAS (0.4% E; 3% Y!) @ CHC
Kyle Lohse, STL (2% E; 17% Y!) @ home vs ATL Hudson

Streaming on Monday and Thursday makes sense in head-to-head leagues because there are less games and this is a nice opportunity to pick up an extra win or two, when selecting the right match up to invest in. GOOD LUCK!

A Steady Stream: 04/22/2010

A Steady Stream

Carl Pavano, MIN (30% E; 38% Y!) @ KC - Pavano was lit up for 11 H and 7 ER in just 3.1 IP in his last start at home against KC, so there is some hesitation to stream him again against the same opponent on the road. He's also not fared well in his career against KC (10 G, 7.84 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). I like his 12:1 K:BB ratio so far in 2010 but KC seems to have this guy's number. RISK: HIGH
Scott Feldman, TEX (29% E; 46% Y!) @ home vs. DET - Feldman started the year off with two quality starts but ran into NYY and was pounded for 4 ER and 7 H in just 2.1 IP. DET sports a top 5 offense and it could turn into a slugfest in Arlington. His career numbers against DET are frightening too (16.1 IP, 16 ER). RISK: VERY HIGH
Ervin Santana, LAA (14% E; 55% Y!) @ home vs. NYY - Santana looked strong in his last start, pitching a CG, 1 ER game at TOR. He has nice career numbers at home (70 GS, 3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) too but this is a Yankee lineup that pounded him for 5 ER in 5.2 IP on 4/13. RISK: MODERATE
Justin Duchscherer, OAK (12% E; 61% Y!) @ home vs. CLE - Cleveland owns the worst-ranked offense in MLB and Duchscherer is riding a scoreless streak of 13 IP. 'Nuff said. RISK: LOW
Jaime Garcia, STL (8% E; 27% Y!) @ SF vs. Lincecum - Matching up against Lincecum comes with a certain level of risk, but Garcia has been phenomenal in his two starts so far in 2010 (13 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 10 K) and I'm buying what Dave Duncan is selling. RISK: EVEN
Kevin Correia, SD (5% E; 73% Y!) @ CIN - Correia needs to go deeper into games to be more widely recognized as a quality starting pitcher (6 IP, 5.2 IP, 5.2 IP) but 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.83 K/9 are all very ownable statistics. RISK: LOW
John Maine, NYM (5% E; 12% Y!) @ home vs. ATL - I want John Maine to be fantasy-relevant again, but so far it's not looking that good (13 IP, 21 H, 15 ER, 10.38 ERA.449 OBA, 2.23 WHIP). Maine is now pitching simply to stay in the Mets' rotation. Good luck. RISK: VERY HIGH
Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (0.7% E; 2% Y!) @ BOS vs. Lester - Guthrie hasn't pitched as badly as his record indicates (0-2, 3 QS) and has put up decent ratios (3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14:3 K:BB) so far. He's never pitched well against BOS (11 GS, 1-5, 4.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and even worse at Fenway. RISK: DANGER!

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Johnny Cueto, CIN (9% E; 45% Y!) @ home vs. SD
Kenshin Kawakami, ATL (1% E; 42% Y!) @ NYM
Ryan Rowland-Smith, SEA (1% E; 35% Y!) @ CHW
Paul Maholm, PIT (0.8% E; 22% Y!) @ HOU vs. Oswalt
Greg Smith, COL (0.4 % E; 2% Y!) @ home vs FLA Nolasco

Would love to hear if you've already resorted to streaming in your Rotisserie league to make up points or in your Head-to-Head league to capture a category victory. Also looking for opinions (for and against) the practice of streaming pitchers.

A Steady Stream: 04/15/2010

A Steady Stream

A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league. My goal is to revisit the streamers to see how accurate (or not) my assessment of the risk was.

Streaming pitchers is a practice that is hated by many fantasy baseball managers and is often used to exploit a hole in your league's settings and configuration. If there is no cap on innings pitched, a "streamer" can attempt to chase Wins at the expense of categories such as ERA and WHIP. Personally, I stream pitchers in every league and every format because on draft day I usually go after several front-of-the-rotation pitchers and then use my late round picks to fill holes I may have with my hitters. Usually only one or two of those players will pan out, so I'll start using those other roster positions to stream pitchers with favorable match ups and obviously available on waivers.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Friday, 04/16/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

Wade Davis, TB (53% E; 15% Y!) @ BOS vs. Josh Beckett - Pitching in the potent AL East is always risky and opening the season against the NY Yankees proved that point (6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, L). Matching up versus Josh Beckett in Boston and the potent Boston lineup could make the start of the 2010 season a forgettable one for Davis. RISK: EXTREMELY HIGH
Derek Lowe. ATL (47% E; 65% Y!) @ home vs. COL - Lowe has won his first two decisions of 2010 but not in pretty fashion (6:10 K:BB, 6 ER, 12 IP). Colorado's lineup has some injuries (Hawpe, CarGo) but their replacements (Spilborghs, Fowler, Seth Smith) can still do damage in a hitters park. RISK: MODERATE
Dallas Braden, OAK (38% E; 47% Y!) @ home vs. BAL - Braden should be a definite own after starting the season with 12 K, 2 BB, 9 H, 4 ER in 13 IP. Baltimore should be an easy mark for this up-and-coming pitcher. RISK: LOW
Shaun Marcum, TOR (35% E; 46% Y!) @ home vs. LAA - Marcum has already flirted with a no-hitter and has posted two strong outings so far, amassing 11 K versus 2 BB and 10 H in 13 IP. The Angels have a lineup that can do a lot of damage on any given day. Another strong outing by Marcum could solidify him as a must-own pitcher in all formats. RISK: SLIGHT
Zack Duke, PIT (5% E; 12% Y!) @ home vs. CIN - Duke has 2 wins already in 2010 and I wouldn't be surprised if those were his only two wins this year. I've been burned way too many times by streaming a Pittsburgh starting pitcher and can't bring myself to recommending anyone but the loyal or foolish to stream him. RISK: DANGER!
Mike Leake, CIN (3% E; 8% Y!) @ PIT - Streaming against Pittsburgh usually has its benefits and Leake didn't fair as poorly as his numbers might suggest in his debut (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 5 K, just 57 of 107 pitches for strikes). Not a game for the faint of heart. RISK: HIGH
Jeremy Bonderman, DET (2% E; 6% Y!) @ SEA vs. Felix Hernandez - This game has the feeling of a 3-2 outcome and can go either way. Seattle is not scoring runs and Bonderman is still regaining his strength but his first outing was encouraging (5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W). RISK: MODERATE
Carlos Silva, CHC (0.4% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs. HOU - The Astros look hapless so far and are a good team to stream against. Silva had a nice debut at CIN (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) and could be a steal in virtually all leagues. Just remember that he still is Carlos Silva. RISK: SLIGHT
Todd Wellemeyer, SF (0.2% E; 1% Y!) @ LAD - Sometimes streaming isn't about how well a pitcher is pitching (6.1 IP, 5.68 ERA, .387 OBA, 1.74 WHIP) but about how poorly his opponent (Padilla - 8.2 IP, 14 H, 11 ER, 2.08 WHIP) pitching. The Dodgers lineup is capable of putting up a lot of runs, so tread lightly. RISK: HIGH

I'm looking forward to seeing how these picks pan out and to hear other opinions on the pros and cons of the streaming strategy. What policies have been put in place in your leagues to curtail such practices?