Waiver Saviors: April's Fantasy Baseball All-Stars

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My Waiver Saviors articles have always been about finding players available in a high percentage of leagues (I use ESPN and Yahoo! data because those are the two sites I personally prefer to play leagues in) and are having a statistical impact at the time the article is written.

This version of Waiver Saviors will look at a lineup of All-Star performances by players either not drafted or drafted near the end of most drafts this offseason. ESPN only tracks ADP (Average Draft Position) up to 260 picks and it looks like Yahoo! is in the same neighborhood. I believe a standard 5x5 10-team league uses 26 roster spots by default.

Here are your Fantasy Baseball Wavier Saviors All-Stars through the month of April:

• Catcher Russell Martin of the New York Yankees has shown he's fully recovered from his injury and reversed the downward trend his career was taking with the Dodgers. His 5x5 line of .293/13/6/19/2 makes him the #1-ranked catcher in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. He was virtually undrafted on ESPN (260) and while he did a little better on Yahoo! (213.5). Joe Mauer owners need to step away from the edge.
• First baseman Ike Davis of the New York Mets is showing owners he's worth all of the hype he received last season. His 5x5 line of .337/16/5/20 has him ranked 7th on ESPN and 8th on Yahoo! among such fantasy heavyweights as Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. All this from an ESPN ADP of 210.2 on ESPN and 229.2 on Yahoo!
• Second baseman Darwin Barney of the Chicago Cubs has secured the majority of the playing time with his 5x5 line of .326/15/1/14/1, after being virtually undrafted in all formats. Jeff Baker is still in the mix for playing time, so keep an eye on things if Barney falters and Baker takes advantage of additional at-bats.
• Third baseman Placido Polanco of the Philadelphia Phillies is healthy again and thriving as a fantasy baseball hitting machine. His 41 hits in just 26 games led to a 5x5 line of .398/18/2/19/3 from a player with an ADP of 203.3 on ESPN and 229.5 on Yahoo!
• Shortstop Jed Lowrie of the Boston Red Sox is proving he deserves to be in the mix for at-bats, having already made an appearance at all four infield positions, by producing a "legendary" 5x5 line of .368/13/3/12/0 in April.
• Outfielder Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals was considered by most to be on the downside of his career but has proved everyone wrong by opening the season with a 5x5 line of .393/23/8/22/0. Could he return to the player that has averaged 33 home runs and 110 RBI per 162 games played over his 13 year career? Current fantasy owners sure hope so.
• Outfielder Jeff Francoeur of the Kansas City Royals has regained some of his 2005-2007 lightning that made him a fantasy-relevant player breaking in with the Braves. Both he and the Royals were the butt of many offseason-signing jokes but who's laughing at his 5x5 line of .314/16/5/20/3 now?
• Outfielder Alfonso Soriano of the Chicago Cubs is tied for the major league lead in home runs with 10. Let that soak in for a moment as you look at the entire 5x5 line of .258/15/10/20/0 he was able to put up in April. His average and the fact that he's not stealing bases are both negatives but, for a player with an ADP of 207.8 on ESPN and 206.6 on Yahoo!, the risk versus reward factor is proving to be low at this point. Plus if he totally tanks it from this point on, very few owners will feel bad about dropping him to waivers.

This All-Star team deserves a place for two additional stars:

• Outfielder Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals has gone from highly touted rookie to fantasy baseball bust to roto-relevant in just five seasons in the big leagues. His early 5x5 line of .339/20/2/19/2 has ranked inside the top-20 on ESPN (17th) and Yahoo! (19th), thanks to a recent 19-game hitting streak.
• Outfielder Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays became a "legend" too when called upon to fill in for the retirement-bound Manny Ramirez. A recent 0-17 streak brought his 5x5 line down to .289/17/1/8/10, but quick reacting fantasy owners grabbing him off waivers aren't complaining...yet. It will be interesting to see what his numbers look like after the month of May is over.

No All-Star team would be complete without some pitchers, so here are a few that have dominated out of virtually nowhere:

• Starting pitcher Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals went from undrafted to a must-own with a 4-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP start to the season.
• Starting pitcher James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has provided owners that drafted him in ESPN (203.9) and Yahoo! (225.2) leagues plenty to smile about by going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 46.1 innings pitched.
• Rookie starting pitcher Michael Pineda of the Seattle Mariners has started of his career with five straight quality starts and a 4-1 record, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in just 31.1 innings. His ADP of 225.1 on ESPN and 237.4 on Yahoo! prove there were some very savvy owners grabbing him in the last few rounds of drafts.
• Starting pitcher Justin Masterson of the Cleveland Indians went 5-0 in April with five quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and seems ready to live up to the hype Red Sox fans witnessed back in 2008.
• Relief pitcher Brandon League of the Seattle Mariners has stepped in brilliantly for the injured David Aardsma as closer, going 7-for-7 in saves with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Could a closer controversy be brewing? It will be interesting to watch what develops as Aardsma is due back soon.
•  Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth of the Tampa Bay Rays has been given the first chance to be the team's closer and has done a good job, saving his first five chances before blowing a save on the last day of April. With young arms Joel Peralta and Jake McGee and an injured J.P. Howell due back soon, you wonder how much longer Farnsworth will get the call to close games.

So there are your April 2010 Waiver Saviors All-Stars. What players were you able to grab off waivers in your leagues who've made the most difference to your success in April? Are you daily or weekly change leagues? Which do you prefer?

Did You Know?: April 29th, 2011

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If you weren't already aware, know this. I am a box score guy. I love the simplicity of the story it tells with numbers. I'm also excited about all of the new baseball statistics that seem to pop up yearly and even though I'm a little late to the game in understanding their utmost importance in using them when evaluating fantasy baseball players, it doesn't mean that I'm not paying attention. I hope to incorporate more of them into my analysis as I see fit. Stay tuned.

Now on to some statistics which you may not be aware of nearly a full month into the season in the latest installment of Did You Know?:

• Adam Dunn has just two home runs and 10 RBI in 19 games this season, while Ben Zobrist accomplished those numbers in yesterday's doubleheader.
• Names I did not expect to see in the top 10 in Total Bases this early in the season: Lance Berkman (1st), Jeff Francoeur (tied 6th) and Ike Davis (tied 9th).
• Aren't stolen base guys supposed to be stealing bases? Juan Pierre has five steals and has been caught six times. Brett Gardner has four steals and has been caught three times. Chone Figgins has three steals and three caught stealings.
• Josh Johnson has allowed just 13 hits in 34 innings pitched. Batters are "hitting" .116 off of him this season.
• Austin Jackson is hitting just .167 (16/96) and has nearly twice the number of K's (31) as hits (16).
• Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .284 with a .303 BABIP with zero walks in 95 at-bats. He must like his own chances when swinging the bat. Hopefully you don't own him in an OBP league.
• Ryan Dempster has allowed 33 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. His ERA of 9.58 is higher than his K/9 ratio of 8.42.
• At age 37, Johnny Damon is on pace for 130 RBI in just 136 games played (20 RBI in 21 of Rays first 35 games). Don't forget about 26 HR/26 SB pace, too.
• Jorge Posada and Russell Martin have each hit six home runs in exactly 69 at-bats this season. Martin is batting .290 compared to Posada's .130 average.
• Huston Street leads the majors with nine saves and is on pace for 63 total.
• Matt Garza has 41 K's in just 30.2 innings pitched for a staggering 12.03 K/9 ratio yet he's 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA and an ugly WHIP of 1.47.

Are there some surprising statistics floating around out there already that have you scrambling to acquire or drop a player? If so, share them with the group, please. We all have a right to know.

Waiver Saviors: April 27th, 2011

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Waiver Saviors will be a semi-regular feature on COSFBA looking for players available in a majority of leagues (ESPN and/or Yahoo!) who are currently having a statistical impact and could/should be worth owning, if you have the need. Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster in the process.

Here are some players having a hot week worth taking a long look at for the short and long term, depending on your league type, too:

• OF Peter Bourjos, LAA (11.1% ESPN owned; 22% Yahoo! owned) has gone 9/23 (.391 BA; 1.112 OPS) over the last week with no home runs (four extra-base hits for 16 total bases), four runs, an RBI and a stolen base. For the season, his 5x5 line is now at .321/11/2/9/2 and very worthy of an outfield slot in all leagues except the shallow ones.
• OF Melky Cabrera, KC (21.9% E; 14% Y!) has gone 10/26 (.385 BA; 1.141 OPS) over the last week with one home run (five extra-base hits for 18 total bases), five RBI, four runs and a stolen base. His season's 5x5 line of .301/15/2/14/2 has to be taken seriously soon by fantasy owners or at least while he and the Royals are firing on all cylinders.
• OF Ryan Ludwick, SD (2.2% E; 6% Y!) has gone 11/34 (.324 BA; 1.067 OPS) over the last week with  three home runs (seven extra-base hits for 24 total bases), five RBI and four runs scored. He's 5x5 line of .209/12/4/11/1 is getting better but may only have value as a spot starter in deeper mixed leagues or very shallow NL-only ones. An encouraging sign is that three of his four home runs have come at PETCO but that unfortunately comes along with a .157 batting average at home, too.
• OF Ben Francisco, PHI (26.8% E; 20% Y!) has gone 8/26 (.308 BA; .960 OPS) over the last week with two home runs (three extra-base hits for 16 total bases), six RBI and three runs scored. He seems to have settled back in as the Phillies' everyday right fielder and has produced a season's 5x5 line of .262/10/4/14/1, with is becoming more ownable in most league formats.
• 2B/SS Darwin Barney, CHC (41% E; 24% Y!) has gone 12/34 (.353 BA; .824 OPS) over the last week with one home run (two extra-base hits for 16 total bases), eight RBI, five runs and one stolen base. His 5x5 line of .329/13/1/13/1 makes him a great find for a MI slot in deeper leagues and a must-own in NL-only formats. He should continue to get the majority of starts at second base and hit out of the number two hole.
• SS Erick Aybar, LAA (67.3% E; 16% Y!) has gone 9/28 (.321 BA; .679 OPS) over the last week. He's started at shortstop the last seven games and stolen two bases. He won't contribute much to your fantasy team unless he continues to hit for average and steal bases. Even then, his value is limited to a spot start or MI position in the deepest of leagues.
• OF Kosuke Fukudome, CHC (2.9% E; 4% Y!) has gone 14/23 (.609 BA; 1.292 OPS) over the last week but that was helped by 5-for-5 and 4-for-7 performances. He's only starting against right-handed pitchers, so he may only be worth rostering to play in favorable match ups.
• 1B Brett Wallace, HOU (8.3% E; 10% Y!) has gone 11/21 (.524 BA; 1.260 OPS) over the last week with no home runs (four extra-base hits for 15 total bases), two RBI and five runs scored. He doesn't have the power numbers (1 HR this season) to be a primary option at first base but his overall 5x5 line of .347/14/1/8/0 makes him a target as a CI or IF candidate on deeper leagues.
• OF Carlos Gomez, MIL (15.3% E; 6% Y!) has gone 10/27 (.370 BA; .861 OPS) over the last week with one home run (one extra-base hit for 13 total bases), four RBI, five runs and a stolen base. Maybe he's feeling the pressure of Nyjer Morgan being brought in and Corey Hart coming off the DL? Keep an eye on his playing time if you plan to pick him up.

Starting pitchers are harder to grab off waivers, with most only have four or five starts to show their stuff. Keep an eye on all of the "pitch and ditch" type articles regarding streaming to see if there's a gem or too hiding in there. Relief pitchers in the mix for saves should be grabbed now and dumped later if things don't pan out. You'll probably miss out if your league is worth anything when it comes to scavenging for saves.

Fun With Player Projections

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With three full weeks of games in the books to start the 2011 season, it's time to start looking at some of the statistics players are putting up and determining what's true or false about what we are seeing. ESPN Player Profile pages have a fun "projected" line worth looking at but have little value in truly projecting the season's outcomes with such as small sample size:

• SS Starlin Castro, CHC leads the majors with 35 hits in 21 games. At his current pace, he projects to collect 270 hits, breaking Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 record of 262. It's doubtful Castro gets anywhere near the record but if you wound up with him on your roster(s) rather than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, you're not in a position to complain.
• 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR is tied for the major league lead with seven home runs, has scored 19 runs and walked 19 times in just 18 games this season. At his current pace, he projects to hit 54 home runs (sound familiar?), score 147 runs and walk 147 times. None of these numbers put him in the stratosphere of "record-breaking" but they should be putting the talk of his 2010 simply being a fluke to rest.
• 1B Prince Fielder, MIL leads the majors with 22 RBI in his first 21 games this season. At his current pace, he'd drive in 170 runs in 162 games played. It's unlikely he'll keep up this pace but he could be back in line with his own 2009, when he drove in 141 runs in 162 games. Either way, his owners have to be pleased with his hot start to 2011.
• OF Sam Fuld, TB has an unlikely 27 hits and 10 stolen bases in 20 games this season. At his current pace, Fuld will accumulate 199 hits and 74 steals. Could 175 hits and 40 stolen bases be that unrealistic for a player that's proving he deserves every opportunity to be in the lineup?
• OF/DH Bobby Abreu,  may only be hitting .240 but he's tied for the major league lead with 19 walks for a robust .394 OBP. At his current pace, that walk rate would put him at 140 for the season. He has a career .400 OBP and has walked over 120 times in a season twice, so this pace isn't all that unheard of for the disciplined Abreu.
• OF Matt Kemp, LAD is doing all he can to make fantasy owners forget about his 2010 season by starting off 2011 with this insane 5x5 line: .402/16/5/17/8. At his current pace, he's looking at a season's ending line of .402/127/35/127/56 and a run at the Triple Crown. There's no way he hits anywhere near .400 but he looks like a man on a mission to go 40/40. If you passed on Kemp because you were burned by him in 2010, there's always 2012.
• OF Dexter Fowler, COL is unfortunately tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with 27 but has offset that with 14 walks and a .381 OBP. At his current pace, Fowler would strike out 208 times and walk 108.
• OF Juan Pierre, CHW is known for his stolen base prowess in fantasy baseball but he already has been caught stealing five times to go along with his five stolen bases. At his current pace, Pierre would be looking at 37 SB and 37 CS. Now, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get caught stealing that often but you may start wondering if he's losing a step at age 33. And without his speed, Pierre's not much of a fantasy option.
• SP Jered Weaver, LAA is 5-0 with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over his first five starts. At his current pace, Weaver projects to start 39 games and strike out 301 batters in 278.2 innings pitched. Those just aren't realistic numbers in today's game but if he keeps his current 9.6 K/9 and matches his innings pitched from 2010 (224.1), he'd probably wind up leading the majors in strikeouts again in 2011 with 241.
• CL Mariano Rivera, NYY has appeared in 11 of the Yankees first 18 games and saved seven of their 12 wins. At his current pace, Rivera would appear in 99 games and finish the season with 63 saves. He's only averaging 64.2 appearances over the last five seasons, so he should slow down once the rest of the Yankee pen settles into their roles. I'd bet Rivera's a lock for his usual 35-45 saves again this year.

The goal of this exercise is to point out not getting too crazy over such a small sample of statistics, positively or negatively. Proven stars will more than likely return to levels that proven stars are used to performing at, statistically speaking. Now, that doesn't mean a top player can't have a down year (see Matt Kemp's 2010) but at least give everyone more than 1/8th of the overall schedule to prove their values to your fantasy baseball roster(s).

Which players are you buying are for real and what numbers are you predicting for them that might surprise most? Which players are you afraid are going to have an off or down year and are ready to cut ties with (drop or trade)? Please use the comments section below to get the conversation started.

Line of the Day: April 16th, 2011

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SS Starlin Castro of the Chicago Cubs went 4-for-5 with a double, home run, three RBI and a run scored in an 8-3 win over the Colorado Rockies. It was his first home run of the season and increased his batting average to .397.

Line: 5 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 3 RBI; 2B, HR

Fantasy Perspective: Castro is currently the 3rd-ranked shortstop on ESPN with a 5x5 line of .397/12/1/6/2. He was the 11th shortstop drafted with an ADP of 150.6, compared to Derek Jeter being the 4th-drafted shortstop with an ADP of 56 and a 5x5 line of .240/8/0/3/0. Castro is the Cubs new leadoff hitter and in six games this season, he's batting .536 (15/28).

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

2011 Draft Results: Catchers Targeted

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This season, I participated in five fantasy baseball leagues of varying types of formats but, for the most part, the players I targeted were pretty much the same. Now, that doesn't mean that I got all the same players in all five leagues but there were some commonalities.

I also want to go on record as saying I think two-catcher leagues of any type are ridiculous. Why as a commissioner would you want to force managers to carry what in my opinion are statistically the worst offensive bunch of players in the game? That being said, the first draft I participated in this season was an "experts" league with an online auction draft and wouldn't you know it...a two-catcher league. The difficulty level was escalated by the fact there are 13 teams and 30-man rosters per team (equals at least 26 catchers being drafted).

My strategy for this league was to get involved in the bidding for the two catchers I valued as being the best (as do most), Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, and hope to walk away with one and spend a little money later in the draft on a guy like Miguel Montero or Carlos Ruiz. Both Mauer and Posey were thrown out early and I was pretty aggressive in the bidding as planned, assuming each would go in the $20-$30+ range in this format. Well, when the dust settled, here's what my two-catcher strategy yielded:

•  Mauer ($24) and Posey ($20)

Now, I'm not shedding any tears over having this duo on my roster, unlike the owner who's rostering Josh Thole and Devin Mesoraco (um, who?). I regret being so aggressive and using $44 of my $330 budget (13%) on a position I was hoping to get bargains but I'm very excited to see what these two can do, offensively, this year.



My four remaining drafts (three of which I am the commissioner) were all single-catcher formats but I went in to each with the strategy of trying to get an upper-to-middle tier catcher early, depending on my draft position, and grabbing a second catcher at the end of the draft for bench depth and spot starts. Here's what that strategy wound up producing (draft pick in parenthesis):

• Miguel Montero (145) and Russell Martin (264)
• Miguel Montero (146) and Carlos Ruiz (359)
• Geovany Soto (120) and Russell Martin (329)
• Russell Martin (315) and John Jaso (343)

In all four of these leagues, I went in targeting Soto as my primary catcher but he only fell to me once. My backup plan for a starter was Montero and that worked well for me twice. I can live with that to start the season. My biggest failure at catcher came in my last draft of the season. Soto, Montero and even Ruiz were all gone before the 140th pick and I passed on Mike Napoli with the 190th pick, only to see him taken with the 191st pick.

So I am left hoping Montero and Soto provide me with with enough offensive production to make the backup catcher a position I don't have to carry the entire season. My problem is that I am heavily invested in Martin returning to some level of his old self. Will having Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada as influences be a good or bad thing? I'm hoping he can provide a .270/60/10/60/10 line at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I guarantee you I won't be in the Russell Martin business very long if it looks like he won't be effective. I'll be searching the waiver wires for who's hot and dumping who's not.

How did you go about drafting catchers this season? Do you have a preference for one or two-catcher formats? In hindsight, did you overly invest in specific players across multiple drafts like I did? Use the comments section to share your thoughts of my catcher targets and your strategies during your 2011 drafts.

Ups and Downs: 03/18/2011

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As we continue to get closer to Opening Day, now seems like an appropriate time to publish another edition of Ups and Downs. Jobs are being won, injuries aren't healing as quickly as expected, veterans are being released and rookies are being sent to the minors. Here are the ones catching my eye and the impact they could have on your fantasy baseball roster.

Stock is Rising:

• C/1B/3B/OF Jake Fox, BAL leads the MLB in home runs this Spring with seven while hitting .356 (16/45) yet still fighting to make in onto the Orioles' Opening Day roster. Let's get something straight, though. Spring stats don't matter. If Fox catches on with the Orioles as a super utility guy with catcher eligibility, he could be worth a very late round pick in deep mixed leagues with two-catcher rosters. Is he really much worse than having to select Jeff Mathis?
• 3B Chipper Jones, ATL is hitting .386 this Spring with three home runs and 11 RBI and looking healthy...for the moment. There will always be the risk of injury with Jones but at the moment, he's playing himself back into fantasy relevant. We all keep hearing that third base is going to be shallow in 2011 and even shallower if your league uses an extra CI or IF position. Keep an eye on his health as Spring winds down or at least until your league drafts.
• 1B Chris Davis, TEX has been touted as a sleeper for the last few years and hasn't produced enough when given the chance to help most fantasy owners. Well, this Spring, Davis is hitting .410 (16/39) with four home runs and an MLB-best 15 RBI as rumblings of "play me or trade me" start coming out of Texas. Will there be enough at bats to hand out with Michael Young and Mitch Moreland in the picture? Keep a close eye on how this one continues to play out over the next couple of weeks and you could truly have a sleeper on your hands as most owners are targeting Moreland late in drafts.
• OF Michael Morse, WAS seems to be playing himself into the Nationals' starting left fielder with a very hot Spring. He's hitting .385 (15/39) with five home runs and showing the 20-25 HR potential he displayed last season (15 HR in 266 AB).
• SP Jered Weaver, LAA is currently the 11th starting pitcher being drafted, according to
  MockDraftCentral.com. So far this Spring, Weaver has pitched 13.1 innings and produced a 17/0 K/BB ratio. Somehow Zack Greinke is still being drafted ahead of Weaver. Absorb that information when you select Weaver as your fantasy baseball ace.

Stock is Falling:

• 2B Chase Utley, PHI makes the list of falling stocks for the second time this Spring. His knee doesn't seem to be getting any better and no timetable for his return is in place. It's hard to find the kind of fantasy numbers he provides from the second base position, so I can't recommend skipping him in drafts, but if you do draft him just make sure you also draft a serviceable Plan B.
• SP Matt Garza, CHC is having a rough Spring so far with the Cubbies. In 10.2 innings, he has a 10.13 ERA, has allowed 13 hits and 12 earned runs and walked seven while striking out eight. These are just meaningless numbers in the grand scheme of things but are worth paying attention to when you are looking to draft a 8th to 10th round pitcher.
• OF Justin Upton, ARI is having a relatively productive Spring (.289/3/7) but he's stolen one base and been thrown out FIVE times. Who does he think he is, Matt Kemp? Again, it's only Spring but something to be aware of if you are drafting him for his speed.
• C J. P. Arencibia, TOR was on many people's sleeper lists for catchers and he isn't exactly living up to the hype. So far this Spring, he's 5/38 (.132 BA) for six total bases with 11 strikeouts. Might be time to wake up that sleeper.
• SP Shaun Marcum, MIL is battling through some shoulder tightness this Spring. The numbers to like is that he currently has a 11/1 K/BB ratio. The numbers to fear are that he's allowed 15 hits in 11.2 innings pitched and reportedly lots 1-2mph off his fastball.
• OF Bryce Harper, WAS being sent down was no surprise to most. Check out how fellow BBA members and I forecasted his 2011 and beyond.
• 2B Luis Castillo, NYM was finally released by the Mets. Enough said.

At this time of year everyone is walking around telling you that Spring Training statistics are worthless. There's definitely truth to that but some numbers can't be ignored. Pay attention to what managers and coaches are saying about players and which jobs are being won and lost heading towards Opening Day.

Finding Keepers: Chicago Cubs: 10/17/2010

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Not a whole lot went well on the field for the Chicago Cubs this season, but several things did from the fantasy baseball perspective. The first being SS Starlin Castro's arrival. At just 20 years old, Castro burst onto the fantasy baseball scene on May 7th with a 2-5, triple, home run, six RBI debut. He finished the season with a .300 average, 53 runs, 3 home runs, 41 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 125 games. If I'm keeping Castro (and I suggest you do too), I'm hoping for a .300+ average with 10+ homers and 15+ stolen bases batting out of the number two hole in the Cubs 2011 line up.

If you're thinking of keeping an elite closer (or at least a closer with elite numbers), CL Carlos Marmol is definitely worthy of a spot. I recently picked Marmol as my NL Reliever of the Year, and had the Cubs won closer to 90 games, he could have been the top reliever in the game. Marmol had 38 saves in the Cubs 75 wins. That could have translated to 45-46 saves on a 90 win team (such as San Diego or San Francisco). His 138 Ks in 77.2 IPs translates into an astonishing 16 K/9. WOW! A point of concern is always going to be his high BB/9 (6.0), though.

Is a catcher with 20+ HR/80+RBI potential with a .270 average warrant a keeper selection? C Geovany Soto only played in 105 games this season yet still managed to be the 8th overall ranked catcher on ESPN's Player Rater with his .280/17/53 line. We all drank the ROY juice in 2008 and were royally disappointed in 2009. Which Geovany shows up in 2011? That level of doubt makes his a risky keeper. I'm rolling the dice that under a new manager, Soto thrives in 2011.


OF Marlon Byrd had a nice first season with the Cubs (.293/84/12/66/5) and was their 2nd ranked fantasy player (behind Marmol) but came in a mere 124th overall. Byrd only averages 12 HR and 69 RBI per 162 games over his entire career and is hardly worth the keeper tag.

Lastly, if you're keeping strictly based on potential, OF Tyler Colvin hit 20 HR in 135 games but only managed a .251 batting average. Colvin batted .277 in 1716 minor league at bats, so should you expect anything higher than that in the majors? I'm not sold he's a keeper unless you are in the deepest of deep mixed leagues.

Are there any other players on the Cubs roster you'd be willing to use a keeper selection on for the 2011 season or do you disagree with my assessment of their roster? If so, open up the discussion by leaving me a comment.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Awards: 10/09/2010

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The 2010 regular season is now behind us and it's time to hand out some hardware. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has new names for the awards we all know and love and I'll be handing them out from a fantasy perspective. And the winners are...

The Connie Mack Award for AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, TB

Joe Maddon manages the Rays like a true fantasy baseball god. Position flexibility is the best friend of every good fantasy baseball manager and Maddon gets the most out of his roster. Ben Zobrist played 15 games at 1B, 56 at 2B, 2 at 3B, 1 in LF, 14 in CF and 104 in RF. He used Sean Rodriguez at 1B for 3 games, 94 at 2B, 7 at 3B, 5 at SS, 5 in LF, 9 in CF and 8 in RF. He batted his catcher, John Jaso, in the leadoff spot for 169 at bats (+ 30 walks) to the tune of a .380 on-base percentage. Toss in guys like Reid Brignac (2B/SS/RF) and Willy Aybar (1B/2B/3B) and you can see why Maddon is taking home this award.
2nd Place: Ron Washington, TEX
3rd Place: Ron Gardenhire, MIN

The Connie Mack Award for NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, ATL

Bobby Cox managed his Braves to the NL Wild Card and probably helped many fantasy managers win their leagues with the likes of fantasy no-names such as 1B/2B/3B Martin Prado and 2B/3B/SS/LF/RF Omar Infante. Cox is single-handedly responsible for convincing Billy Wagner to come to Atlanta to be his closer and Wagner responded big time (7-2, 37 SV, 1.43 ERA, 0.87 WHIP). Add potential NL Rookie of the Year Jason Heyward and NL Comeback Player of the Year Tim Hudson into the mix and you can see why Bobby Cox is taking home this award.
2nd Place: Bruce Bochy, SF
3rd Place: Bud Black, SD

The Willie Mays Award for AL Rookie of the Year: RP Neftali Feliz, TEX

I hate the mantra, "Don't pay for saves", because sometimes saves are worth paying top dollar for (Mariano Rivera, for one). For those owners that were able to get Neftali Feliz at the end of their drafts (ADP 222.5), they struck fantasy gold. Frank Francisco opened the season as the Texas Rangers' closer and promptly blew two saves (April 8th and 10th). Feliz recorded his first save on April 12th and never looked back, converting 40 of 43 save opportunities the season.
2nd Place: Austin Jackson, DET
3rd Place: Brennan Boesch, DET

The Willie Mays Award for NL Rookie of the Year: C Buster Posey, SF

Most people would agree that this award was a two-horse race, Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. Looking at it from a fantasy perspective, their numbers were relatively similar. The differences are that Posey put his numbers (.305/18/67) in 108 games while Heyward put up his numbers (.277/18/72) in 142 games. Also, Hayward's ADP was 114.1 while Posey was virtually undrafted. Lastly, Posey put up premium numbers for a catcher and finished 3rd overall for his position while Heyward finished as the 40th ranked outfielder.
2nd Place: Jason Heyward, ATL
3rd Place: Jaime Garcia, STL


The Goose Gossage Award for AL Top Reliever: RP Rafael Soriano, TB

Rafael Soriano was acquired in a trade with the Atlanta Braves and immediately slotted to be the team's closer. Soriano responded by leading the AL in saves with 45 and proved to be an incredible fantasy value with an ADP of 161.8.
2nd Place: Joakim Soria, KC
3rd Place: Neftali Feliz, TEX

The Goose Gossage Award for NL Top Reliever: RP Carlos Marmol, CHC

The 2010 Chicago Cubs didn't have much go right for them but moving Carlos Marmol into the closer role was definitely the right move. Marmol saved 38 of 43 games while striking out an astounding 138 in just 77.2 innings pitched. That translated into an eye-popping 15.99 K/9 ratio. To put that into perspective, his 138 K's were more than big name starting pitchers such as Clay Buchholz (17-7, 120 K, 173.2 IP), Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 117 K, 129.2 IP) and Carl Pavano (17-11, 117, 221 IP).
2nd Place: Brian Wilson, SF
3rd Place: Heath Bell, SD

The Walter Johnson Award for AL Cy Young: SP Felix Hernandez, SEA

I've run a points-based fantasy baseball league for the last several years and the points for pitching categories has accurately predicted the Cy Young's (yes, even Zack Greinke). And this year's numbers spit out Felix Hernandez as the number one AL pitcher, hence the award. Where do other's fall on the list? CC Sabathia is 9th overall and 5th in the AL. David Price is 10th overall and 6th in the AL. Why isn't anyone talking about Jered Weaver (5th overall and 2nd in the AL) and Jon Lester (6th overall and 3rd in the AL) in the AL Cy Young race? Yes wins matter to a pitcher but there is more to winning this award than just wins.
2nd Place: Jered Weaver, LAA
3rd Place: Jon Lester, BOS

The Walter Johnson Award for NL Cy Young: SP Roy Halladay, PHI

This award allows for little controversy, in my humble opinion. Yes, the NL has some very worthy pitchers (Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum) but this award starts and ends with Roy Halladay. He lead the major leagues in innings pitched, was 5th in strikeouts, tied for 4th in quality starts, lead in complete games and shutouts...and oh, by the way, pitched a regular season perfect game (and a playoff no hitter). "Pay that man his money."
2nd Place: Adam Wainwright, STL
3rd Place: Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

The Stan Musial Award for AL MVP: 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR

You don't hit 54 home runs in a season and NOT win an MVP award, especially when you were virtually undrafted, such as Jose Bautista was. Statistically speaking, he produced the second-most fantasy points behind a guy you may have heard of...Albert Pujols. Most "valuable" makes more sense to a fantasy baseball award than the real-life version. "Valuable" in the real world limits the award to players on contending teams because people will argue what good are 54 home runs to a .500 ball club.
2nd Place: Miguel Cabrera, DET
3rd Place: Robinson Cano, NYY

The Stan Musial Awards for NL MVP: 1B Albert Pujols, STL

Albert Pujols had a better season, statistically, than a guy that hit 54 home runs. Enough said. He continues to put up numbers, year after year, that validate him being drafted first in all fantasy baseball formats. His 162 game career averages are mind-boggling: 123 R, 198 H, 44 2B, 42 HR, 128 RBI, 95 BB, 67 K, 8 SB, .331 BA, .426 OBP, .624 SLG. A lot of people will take a chance on a player other than Pujols with the number one pick in 2011 (CarGo, Votto, Hamilton), but not me. I'm sticking with Albert.
2nd Place: Joey Votto, CIN
3rd Place: Carlos Gonzalez, COL

So there you have them. COSFBA's official ballot for the 2010 Baseball Bloggers Alliance Awards. I'd love some feedback regarding my selections. Just remember, these were selected from a fantasy baseball perspective. Thanks for an incredible season of baseball.

Waiver Saviors: 07/25/2010

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Here are some names of note that are widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues in the latest installment of Waiver Saviors:

• 1B/OF Luke Scott, BAL (17.7% E; 21% Y!) is on another of his typical, streaky tears. Since returning from the DL, he's hitting .458 (11/24) with 4 HR, 8 RBI, 5 runs and a 1.458 OPS in 6 games. For a guy hitting around .300 for the season and projecting 30 HR, you'd expect higher ownership numbers.
• OF Jack Cust, OAK (6.5% E; 8% Y!) is on fire in July. Hitting .346 (18/52) with 6 HR, 18 RBI, 14 runs and 14 walks, Cust could be a very nice add in OBP and/or OPS leagues.
• 3B Pedro Alvarez, PIT (25.6 E; 25% Y!) may finally be living up to his potential. In July, he's raised his average from .152 to .252 by hitting .315 (23/73) with 7 HR, 15 RBI and 13 runs. He could help you at the CI position in deep leagues or be a nice gamble in a keeper league if you are already thinking about next season.
• SS Starlin Castro, CHC (43.3% E; 24% Y!) has got his groove back and loving his move into the #2 spot. Over the last 7 days, he's 13/27 (.481) with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs and 2 SB. Castro is a player with huge fantasy baseball upside and worthy of a roster spot in all formats.
• SP Vincente Padilla, LAD (34.8% E; 31% Y!) is starting to look like a pitcher that deserved starting opening day. He's allowed two runs or less in each of his last six starts and and sporting a nice 61:15 K:BB in 68.2 IP on the season.
• RP Chris Perez, CLE (45.7% E; 37% Y!) is back in the closer role for the Indians, replacing the oft-injured Kerry Wood again. Perez should be owned in any format that uses saves. He has 3 Saves (and 2 Holds) and a 11.32 K/9 ratio over his last 10.1 IP.

Are you already in a rebuilding stage or attempting to identify next season's keepers? At what point do you consider yourself too far out of the running? It better not be once you draft your fantasy football team.

Be sure to follow COSFBA on Twitter at http://twitter.com/COSFBA. Thanks!

Line of the Day: 07/20/2010

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3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC went 3-for-5 with three home runs, seven RBI and three runs. Ramirez is on a TEAR right now and any dreams of getting him off waivers have vanished. In 15 July games, he's gone 23/60 (.383 BA) with 9 HR (15 XBH), 24 RBI, 23 R, a .406 OBP and a 1.356 OPS. His average is now up to .226 after hitting only .152 in April and .173 in May. You are being greatly rewarded if you simply stashed him on your bench until now instead of dumping him.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Ups and Downs: 07/18/2010

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This edition of Ups and Downs looks at a few players being added and dropped the most (according to ESPN leagues) and the possible reasons why.

• 3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC (+24.2%) has been on a tear in July (.375, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 14 R) and looking like his first half woes (.207 BA pre All-Star break) may be behind him. His ownership numbers are high (91.3% E; 79% Y!) but could be available if your league mates have already moved on to fantasy football.
• SP Edinson Volquez, CIN (+23.8%) returned from Tommy John surgery (and a 50-game drug suspension for PEDs) with a quality start in which he went six innings, allowing three hits, an earned run, two walks while striking out nine in a win at home versus Colorado. Volquez is fairly available (35.8% E; 45% Y! owned) right now but don't wait much longer to pick him up. Another quality start and his ownership numbers could double.
• SP Madison Bumgarner, SF (+16.2%) is proving that he belongs in the big leagues. After just four starts this season, Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 21 K's in 28 IP. He's pitched seven or more innings in three of those four starts, too. If you need a good, young starter (especially in a keeper league), now may be the time to claim Bumgarner (31.9% E; 28% Y! owned).
• OF Chris Coghlan, FLA (-21.4%) is rumored to be headed to the DL or at least be out of the line up for the short term. Coghlan is projecting 9 HR, 51 RBI, 101 R and 17 SB this season, which is actually better than last season's numbers, except for BA (.263 compared to .321). Owners must be finding better options on waivers.
• SP Carlos Silva, CHC (-16%) was lit up for six earned runs in just 1.1 IP in his last start. Owners are probably seeing this as the last straw towards the "beginning of the end". Silva is 1-3 over his last six starts after opening the season 8-0.
• 1B Gaby Sanchez, FLA (-15.5%) was a very popular "add" just a couple of weeks ago. He's gone 10/40 with 0 HR, 0 RBI and only 2 R over the last 15 days and no longer worthy of a CI or UTL spot.

What other players are you buying, selling or simply cut and running away from? Is the All-Star break the unofficial point of worrying if a guy is going to turn it around or not? Share your thoughts with me in the comments section or hit me up on Twitter. I could always use some more followers there, if you're into that sort of thing.

2010 Waiver Savior All-Stars: 06/26/2010

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With everyone naming their All-Star teams, I thought it was about time I released my version based on value for your money. Most of these guys were either very late round picks or waiver wire guys once the season started. Here we go!

CATCHER
Starter - Miguel Olivo, COL (.296/31/10/33/4)
Backup - John Buck, TOR (.269/24/12/38/0)

FIRST BASE
Starter - Paul Konerko, CHW (.301/42/18/54/0)
Backup - Troy Glaus, ATL (.270/39/14/55/0)

SECOND BASE
Starter - Martin Prado, ATL (.330/53/7/31/2)
Backup - Kelly Johnson, ARI (.268/47/13/35/5)

THIRD BASE
Starter - Scott Rolen, CIN (.303/40/16/48/0)
Backup - Alberto Callaspo, KC (.284/34/7/35/3)

SHORTSTOP
Starter - Alex Gonzalez, TOR (.262/38/13/38/1)
Backup - Juan Uribe, SF (.273/36/12/45/1)

OUTFIELD
Starter - Vernon Wells, TOR (.282/43/18/45/3)
Starter - Marlon Byrd, CHC (.319/40/9/35/4)
Starter - Corey Hart, MIL (.272/35/18/55/4)
Backup - Jose Bautista, TOR (.233/47/20/49/3)
Backup - Scott Podsednik, KC (.295/35/3/31/20)

STARTING PITCHER
Starter - Mike Pelfrey, NYM (10-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Backup - Carlos Silva, CHC (8-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

CLOSER
Starter - Matt Capps, WAS (22 Saves)
Backup - Neftali Feliz, TEX (20 Saves)

So there it is. If you were savvy enough to draft some of these players or scoop them up off waivers once they got hot, you're probably running away with your league, regardless of format.

Agree? Disagree? Vocalize it in the comments section or hit me up on Twitter (@COSFBA).

*Statistics accurate through 06/25/2010

Ups and Downs: 06/13/2010

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This edition of Ups and Downs will look at players being added and dropped the most (according to ESPN leagues) and the possible reasons why.

• OF Michael Stanton, FLA (+67.2%) deserves being added in all formats, especially after starting off 7/19 (.368 BA) with four RBI and two stolen bases in his first five games. Everyone is waiting for the power to come, but it's nice to see that he can do more than just hit the long ball.
• SP Brett Cecil, TOR (+34.9%) is now 7-2 with a 3.22 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He's won his last five starts (the last two being against TB and NYY) and each was also a quality start. Only 65% owned in ESPN leagues, he could be a nice addition to your staff.
• C Carlos Santana, CLE (+29.1%) is another rookie that just got the call and didn't disappoint, homering in his second big league game. Immediately inserted into the number three slot in the Indians batting order, look for him to be given every opportunity to succeed.
• SS Starlin Castro, CHC (-23.7%) is hitting only .229 in June and has just two RBI in his last 18 games.
• SP Johnny Cueto, CIN (-21.1%) was a hot add not too long ago. In his last three starts, he's given up 17 ER and 25 hits in just 17 IP. UGH!
• 2B Orlando Hudson, MIN (-21.0%) seems to simply be a casualty of roster space. Prior to going on the DL, he was hitting .305 with 39 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI and 4 SB in 49 games. Could be a nice add if you have the roster space and need.

What other players have you finally given up on? Does your league's keeper rules force you to hold onto a player longer than you want for the sake of next season?

Waiver Saviors/Ultimate Lineup: 05/24/2010

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I've decided to combine two topics into one for this article. Waiver Saviors normally looks at who's hot and available in a majority of leagues and Ultimate Lineup normally looks at who's hot by position. I'm going to attempt to combine them both and give you a name at each position that is widely available and possibly worth a waiver wire pickup in your league. Here we go.

• C  John Jaso, TB (0.4% E; 3% Y!) is barely owned, so if you are in need of a catcher, grab him. This is a line worth owning (22 games): 22/63, .349 BA, .475 OBP, .540 SLG, 1.015 OPS, 7 XBH, 11 R, 2 HR,  18 RBI, 15 BB, 6 K. Dioner Navarro is hitting .188 with 0 HR and 4 RBI in 80 ABs. It's only a matter of time before the starting job is Jaso's.
• 1B/3B Troy Glaus, ATL (63% E; 20% Y!) is being snatched up, so don't miss out. After a rough April, he's hitting .355 with 4 HR and 18 RBI in May. At this pace, he won't be available much longer.
• 2B/SS Mike Aviles, KC (40% E; 19% Y!) is back in a starting role and performing (.347 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 10 R). He could be a nice addition in deeper leagues, especially in a MI roster slot.
• 3B Scott Rolen, CIN (40% E; 41% Y!) is on a pace for over 30 home runs and 90 RBI. That's ownable in every format. He will always feel like an injury risk, but his ownership numbers should be better, at this point.
• 2B/3B/SS Jeff Keppinger, HOU (3% E; 4% Y!) may be the best of what's left out there at the shortstop position. Probably only an option in NL-only or very deep mixed leagues where his .292 BA, 15 R and 17 RBI could be helpful. He's hitting .433 (13/30) over his last 7 games.
• OF Luke Scott, BAL (44% E; 28% Y!) is on one of his tears (last 15 games: .420 BA, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, 1.253 OPS) and could be a nice "quick fix" in weekly, head-to-head leagues orif your team is decimated by injuries.
• OF Eric Hinske, ATL (3% E; 6% Y!) looks to have played himself into an everyday role with the Braves (last 15 games: 16/36, .444 BA, 7 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1.432 OPS). Hinske is another player to ride while he's hot and piling up the offensive numbers.
• OF Corey Hart, MIL (49% E; 38% Y!) is on a power surge (12 R, 6 HR, 12 RBI in May) and no longer in a platoon. His average (.264) and steals (3) are down, so you may just be sacrificing some scoring categories to get the runs, home runs and RBI.
• SP Carlos Silva, CHC (30% E; 33% Y!) is 6-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. I know everyone is waiting for him to implode, but what if he doesn't? He's also 6/9 in quality starts with a nice 2.82 K/BB ratio. If you're desperate for pitching or looking to stream, Silva is getting it done.
• RP Manny Corpas, COL (37% E; 29% Y!) is Colorado's closer until Houston Street comes off the DL and should be owned if you need saves. He's recorded three saves in his last five outings and could be setting himself up to be the Rockies primary setup man once Street returns.

Is it me or do fantasy baseball managers hold grudges against players that have burned them in the past? Are their guys out there that have burned you one too many times and you simply refuse to fall for it again? (That's right, Zach Duke, I'm talking about you!)

Box Score Beasts: 05/17/2010

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Box Score Beasts will look at the top performers from tonight's games without much commentary. This page should give you a quick look at the players that had the most impact in their respective games.

• C Victor Martinez, BOS hit two solo home runs in five at-bats.
• 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis, BOS hit a two-run home run in the 8th inning to give the Red Sox the lead over the Yankees.
• 3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 9th of Jonathan Papelbon to tie the game at 9 and end Papelbon's save streak at 22 games.
• OF Marcus Thames, NYY hit a two-run, walk-off home run off Papelbon to give the Yankees the win.
• OF Corey Patterson, BAL stole two bases. Might be a source of some quick, cheap steals.
• 1B Ryan Howard, PHI was 3/5, 2 R, 6 RBI courtesy of a grand slam.
• OF Jayson Werth, PHI had a home run and four RBI.
• SP Kyle Kendrick, PHI pitched eight innings, allowing just five hits, two earned runs, one walk and struck out four to earn his second victory of the season.
• C Joe Mauer, MIN was 3/5 to raise his batting average to .360. His power numbers may not be there but this guy is a batting champ.
• 1B Justin Morneau, MIN was 3/4 with three runs, four RBI and two home runs. His batting average is now .374.
• OF Vernon Wells, TOR had three hits and is hitting .310 on the season. He continues to get it done.
• 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR hit his 11th homer of the season.
• OF Corey Hart, MIL hit two solo home runs.
• SP Johnny Cueto, CIN pitched seven innings, allowing seven hits, one earned run, one walk and seven strikeouts to earn his third win.
• SP Edwin Jackson, ARI pitched eight shut out innings, allowing just four hits, two walks while striking out 12 to earn his second win.
• SS Starlin Castro, CHC went 3/5 with his first stolen base while raising his batting average to .361.
• 3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC hit a walk-off two-run home run to beat Colorado.
• SS Ian Desmond, WAS was 4/4 with a run scored.
• 1B Albert Pujols, STL was 3/3 with two runs and a walk.
• C Yadier Molina, STL stole his fifth base of the season. That's impressive.
• 2B/3B Jose Lopez, SEA was 2/4 with three RBI and a stolen base.
• 1B Daric Barton, OAK was 3/3 with two runs, an RBI, a double and triple.
• 2B/3B Blake DeWitt, LAD was 2/4 with a run, two RBI and two triples.
• SP John Ely, LAD pitched seven innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, zero walks with eight strikeouts to earn his second victory.
• SP Clayton Richard, SD pitched seven innings, allowing just three hits, one run, walking three and striking out five to earn his third win.
• SS Jason Bartlett, TB successfully executed a walk-off squeeze bunt to win the game.

Man, I loved digging through all of tonight's baseball games to find these top performers. Hopefully you won't have to do the same now that I've listed all the gems.

Ups and Downs: 05/14/2010

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This edition of Ups and Downs will look at the players being added and dropped the most (according to ESPN leagues) by position and the possible reasons why.

C John Buck, TOR (+30.3%) is riding a 6-game hitting streak in which he's hitting .450 (9/20) with 3 HR, 6 RBI and 7 runs.
C Miguel Olivo, COL (-20.9%) was mired in a 2/28 (.071) slump and rumors of Chris Iannetta being brought up from AAA started to surface. Owners probably jumped off the Olivo bandwagon and onto the Buck bandwagon. Olivo answered with a 5/5, 1 HR game and probably will be a big add again soon.

1B/3B Troy Glaus, ATL (+16.5%) was thought to be a nice late-round pick but hit only .194 in April and promptly dumped by most teams. He's turning things around in May (.386 BA, 2 HR, 14 RBI in 11 games) and is definitely worth the pickup.
1B Todd Helton, COL (-14%) is only hitting .257 with 0 HR this season. Owners can't sit around and wait to see if he will heat up at this point. I'd stash him on the bench if I had the roster space but his dumps are understandable.

2B/3B Alberto Callaspo, KC (+12.6%) continues to validate being an everyday fantasy player (.304 BA, 13 R, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 2 SB) and should be owned in most formats.
2B/3B Jose Lopez, SEA (-16.3%) is definitely part of the reason why the Mariners offense has been so terrible this season (.216 BA, 8 R, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB) and should be dropped in shallow leagues for anyone on waivers with a pulse.

3B David Freese, STL (+15.1%) has tapered off a bit but definitely is worthy of all the adds (.310 BA, 13 R, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB). Owners usually hope for more power from the corner infield positions but Freese is providing plenty of reasons to be rostered.
3B Chipper Jones, ATL (-16.5%) is doing exactly what Chipper Jones has done in recent years; being drafted too high and then disappointing owners when he inevitably gets injured. If your roster can support him on the bench, he could be a nice add to stash away for when he heats things up when healthy.

SS Starlin Castro, CHC (+58.8%) burst on the fantasy scene and has lived up to the hype (.364 BA, 3 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB) through six games. If he's still available in your league, your league probably sucks and is way too shallow. Just saying.
SS J.J. Hardy, MIN (-16%) went on the DL and was promptly dumped by some teams. There definitely are better options out there (see Castro), especially if your DL spots are currently full. Could be a nice add once he returns from his injury in leagues that utilize a MI roster spot.

OF Aaron Rowand, SF (+27.7) roared off the DL with a 7-game hitting streak (11/32, .344 BA, 6 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB), validating the adds but has since gone 0/12 with zero runs, homers or ribbies. Look for him to be a popular drop soon.
OF Jose Guillen, KC (-19.8%) has one home run in has last 17 games and seen his average drop 100 points (.346 to .246). He was a hot early season add but I guess playing for the Royals finally caught up to him. Could Scott Podsednik's decline be on the horizon?

SP Jon Garland, SD (+43.4%) has never been considered much of a fantasy asset because of his low career K/9 rate of 4.7, but he's now 4-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He's only allowed 2 ER is his last five starts (32 IP) and his season's K/9 stands at 5.4. Pitching half of his games at PETCO make him a nice addition to any deep pitching staff.
SP Brian Matusz, BAL (-21.7%) pitches for the Orioles and most fantasy leagues use wins as a scoring category. Expect his drop rates to increase the more times he gets thumped by the rest of the AL East.

RP Alfredo Simon, BAL (+24.2%) is Baltimore's closer and whatever wins there are right now should be his to save. Until he implodes, he should be owned.
RP Franklin Morales, COL (-20.7%) was the Rockies closer until he went on the DL. He has no values if he's not closing games. Manny Corpas steps back into the closer role until Houston Street is ready to come off the DL. Corpas should show up as a popular add shortly.

How valuable, if any, is this information or can you easily find it on your own and I am just wasting everyone's time reporting it? HA! I'm just trying to garner comments and feedback as I continually try to find what, if any, value this blog has other than to feed my own addiction and need for personal validation. (Sounds like someone has "mommy" issues.)

Waiver Saviors: 05/13/2010

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Here are some guys very available in ESPN leagues that are worth looking at in the latest installment of Waiver Saviors.

HITTERS (last 7 days)*

• SS Starlin Castro, CHC (6/18, .333 BA, 2 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB) came up with a splash and hasn't disappointed, offensively, in his first week. If he's still available in your league, grab him. The Cubs are invested heavily into this 20-year-old and so should you, especially if your league is a keeper. (56.5% owned)
• C John Buck, TOR (9/21, .429 BA, 7 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB) may not be a long-term solution at catcher, but he's definitely proving to be a short-term one. If your league uses a two-catcher format or you punted the catcher position all together, Buck is worth owning while he's hot. (25.4% owned)
• OF Fred Lewis, TOR (14/33, .424 BA, 3 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB) is getting it done at the top of the Blue Jays batting order. If he can increase his walks (only five) and stolen bases (just 3/5), he could be an asset worth owning in deep mixed leagues. (9.8% owned)
• 1B/3B Troy Glaus, ATL (11/28, .393 BA, 3 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB) is heating up (May: 16/40, .400 BA) after a very slow start (April: 14/72, .194 BA). Glaus could easily reach 30 home runs, if he can simply stay healthy, and the move to first base should help. (11.2% owned)
• OF Angel Pagan, NYM (10/26, .385 BA, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB) has a solid hold on the center field job (until Beltran comes back) and is making the most of his opportunity. If you are in need of speed, Pagan could provide a short-term boost. (2.2% owned)
• SS Orlando Cabrera, CIN (9/23, .391 BA, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB) is batting leadoff, producing and should be rostered, especially if you're in a deep league with an MI spot. (36.1% owned)

PITCHERS (last 15 days)*

• SP Ian Kennedy, ARI (2-1, 2 QS, 21.2 IP, 20 H, 4 BB, 14 K, 2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is on everyone's waiver wire pickup lists, so why is he still so available? He's finally living up to his potential and could be a nice addition to a struggling fantasy pitching staff. (11.2% owned)
• RP Alfredo Simon, BAL (3 SV, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 7 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 10.50 K/9) is the Orioles closer and should be owned in all formats that use saves as a scoring category. If he's available in your league, then your league probably sucks. (29% owned)
• RP Frank Francisco, TEX (2-0, 2 SV, 1 HLD, 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 5.06 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, .444 OBA, 8.44 K/9) will kill your ratios and frustrate the hell out of you for owning him, but the Rangers bullpen is a mess and he is right in the thick of it. If you've got the stomach for it, own him. (42.7% owned)
• SP Brett Myers, HOU (1-1, 3 QS, 20 IP, 20 H, 9 BB, 14 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) could be worth owning if the Astros showed any signs of life on offense. He's gone at least six innings in all seven starts, recording a quality start in five, but only sporting a 2-2 record. (1.1% owned)
• RP Tyler Clippard, WAS (3-1, 0 SV, 4 BSV, 4 HLD, 9.1 IP, 10 H, 7 BB, 11 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 10.61 K/9) is the major league leader in wins with seven...as a middle reliever. If your league uses holds, he's a must-own. If you are desperate for wins, he's ownable. If your league uses K/9, what are you waiting for? I can't think of any reason for him not to be owned at this point. (40.6% owned)
• RP Jhoulys Chacin, COL (2-0, 2 QS, 15.1 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, .217 OBA, 9.39 K/9, 3.20 K/BB) is pitching his way into a permanent spot in the Rockies rotation. Grab him while the league tries to figure him out. Chacin should gain SP eligibility after he makes his 3rd start, according to ESPN rules. (21.9% owned)

REMEMBER: Waiver pickups are all about filling a need with a player(s) that is currently hot and beating your fellow owners to the punch without destroying your current roster to do so.

Six weeks into the 2010 season, what players have you claimed off waivers that are paying dividends?

* Statistics accurate through games played as of 05/11/2010

A Steady Stream: 05/11/2010

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A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league. My goal is to revisit the streamers to see how accurate my assessment of the risk was (or not).

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Wednesday, 05/12/2010 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

• Edwin Jackson, ARI (45% E; 55% Y! owned) @ home vs LAD (Kuroda)- Jackson has been horrific over his last three starts (13.1 IP, 28 H, 21 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, .500 OBA). Until he shows he's righted the ship, I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
• Carl Pavano, MIN (42% E; 45% Y!) @ home vs CHW (Danks) - Why isn't Pavano owned in more leagues? Over his last three starts, he's gone 23 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 18 K but only 1-2 with 3 QS. He's getting hit hard at home this season (5.14 ERA) but has nice career numbers against the White Sox (5 GS, 3-2, 2 CG, 2 SHO, 2.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). RISK: LOW
• Derek Lowe, ATL (37% E; 53% Y!) @ MIL (Gallardo) - In Lowe's seven starts in 2010, he's managed only 38 IP and 1 QS. Need more reason to avoid Lowe? How about a 23:19 K:BB ratio. Look elsewhere! RISK: DANGER!
• Fausto Carmona, CLE (28% E; 31% Y!) @ KC (Davies) - Carmona has been good, so far, this season. He's recorded 5 QS in 6 GS but a troubling 17:18 K:BB ratio. He has poor career numbers against in 11 G versus KC (59 IP, 72 H, 4.73 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). RISK: MODERATE
• Carlos Silva, CHC (16% E; 27% Y!) @ home vs FLA (Volstad) - Silva was streaming along quite nicely, as proven here and here, until his last two starts (10 IP, 18 H, 9 ER). He's also battling tightness in his neck. RISK: HIGH
• Gio Gonzalez, OAK (9% E; 18% Y!) @ TEX (Holland) - Gonzalez is good and only getting better but his talent is still very raw (35.2 IP, 26 H, 19 BB, 34 K). I don't like this match up in Texas. I'm avoiding him. RISK: HIGH
• Clayton Richard, SD (2% E; 21% Y!) @ SF (Cain) - In his last two starts, Richard has gone 11 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 13 K. The 13 K is 11 IP is nice but the 8 BB are troubling. Not sure he pulls out a win, but I like Richard to pitch well. RISK: EVEN
• Chris Volstad, FLA (8% E; 8% Y!) @ CHC (Silva) - Volstad is coming off two stellar pitching performances (16 IP, 8 H, .193 OBA, 12:3 K:BB), but both were against the Nationals. I like Volstad because I don't like Silva (see above). RISK: LOW

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

• Jamie Moyer, PHI (5% E; 8% Y!) @ COL (Hammel)
• Tim Wakefield, BOS (3% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs TOR (Marcum)
• Zach Duke, PIT (2% E; 7% Y!) @ home vs CIN (Bailey)
• Kyle Lohse, STL (2% E; 16% Y!) @ home vs HOU (Rodriguez)
• Jeremy Bonderman, DET (1% E; 2% Y!) @ home vs NYY (Hughes)

Not a great day to be streaming pitchers, so be careful out there. GOOD LUCK!

What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)?