2011 Fantasy Baseball: TOR

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Fantasy Baseball's Line of the Day: 04/26/2011

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1B/OF/DH Adam Lind of the Toronto Blue Jays went 3-for-5 with two home runs, five RBI and three runs scored in a 10-3 win over the Texas Rangers. It was his fifth career multihomer game and his third at Rangers Ballpark, where he now has nine home runs in his last 12 games.

Line: 5 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 5 RBI; 2 HR

My fantasy perspective: Lind's batting average has crept its way up to .256, which is better than last season's .237 but still way below his .305 average in 2009. If he can keep his average moving in a positive direction, at his current pace, he'd hit 21 home runs, drive in 120 runs and score 85. Those are very fantasy-relevant numbers for a first baseman.

Agree? Disagree? Check out ESPN's formula for determining the best daily performances and nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Fun With Player Projections

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With three full weeks of games in the books to start the 2011 season, it's time to start looking at some of the statistics players are putting up and determining what's true or false about what we are seeing. ESPN Player Profile pages have a fun "projected" line worth looking at but have little value in truly projecting the season's outcomes with such as small sample size:

SS Starlin Castro, CHC leads the majors with 35 hits in 21 games. At his current pace, he projects to collect 270 hits, breaking Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 record of 262. It's doubtful Castro gets anywhere near the record but if you wound up with him on your roster(s) rather than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, you're not in a position to complain.
3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR is tied for the major league lead with seven home runs, has scored 19 runs and walked 19 times in just 18 games this season. At his current pace, he projects to hit 54 home runs (sound familiar?), score 147 runs and walk 147 times. None of these numbers put him in the stratosphere of "record-breaking" but they should be putting the talk of his 2010 simply being a fluke to rest.
1B Prince Fielder, MIL leads the majors with 22 RBI in his first 21 games this season. At his current pace, he'd drive in 170 runs in 162 games played. It's unlikely he'll keep up this pace but he could be back in line with his own 2009, when he drove in 141 runs in 162 games. Either way, his owners have to be pleased with his hot start to 2011.
OF Sam Fuld, TB has an unlikely 27 hits and 10 stolen bases in 20 games this season. At his current pace, Fuld will accumulate 199 hits and 74 steals. Could 175 hits and 40 stolen bases be that unrealistic for a player that's proving he deserves every opportunity to be in the lineup?
OF/DH Bobby Abreu, may only be hitting .240 but he's tied for the major league lead with 19 walks for a robust .394 OBP. At his current pace, that walk rate would put him at 140 for the season. He has a career .400 OBP and has walked over 120 times in a season twice, so this pace isn't all that unheard of for the disciplined Abreu.
OF Matt Kemp, LAD is doing all he can to make fantasy owners forget about his 2010 season by starting off 2011 with this insane 5x5 line: .402/16/5/17/8. At his current pace, he's looking at a season's ending line of .402/127/35/127/56 and a run at the Triple Crown. There's no way he hits anywhere near .400 but he looks like a man on a mission to go 40/40. If you passed on Kemp because you were burned by him in 2010, there's always 2012.
OF Dexter Fowler, COL is unfortunately tied for the major league lead in strikeouts with 27 but has offset that with 14 walks and a .381 OBP. At his current pace, Fowler would strike out 208 times and walk 108.
OF Juan Pierre, CHW is known for his stolen base prowess in fantasy baseball but he already has been caught stealing five times to go along with his five stolen bases. At his current pace, Pierre would be looking at 37 SB and 37 CS. Now, it seems highly unlikely that he'll get caught stealing that often but you may start wondering if he's losing a step at age 33. And without his speed, Pierre's not much of a fantasy option.
SP Jered Weaver, LAA is 5-0 with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over his first five starts. At his current pace, Weaver projects to start 39 games and strike out 301 batters in 278.2 innings pitched. Those just aren't realistic numbers in today's game but if he keeps his current 9.6 K/9 and matches his innings pitched from 2010 (224.1), he'd probably wind up leading the majors in strikeouts again in 2011 with 241.
CL Mariano Rivera, NYY has appeared in 11 of the Yankees first 18 games and saved seven of their 12 wins. At his current pace, Rivera would appear in 99 games and finish the season with 63 saves. He's only averaging 64.2 appearances over the last five seasons, so he should slow down once the rest of the Yankee pen settles into their roles. I'd bet Rivera's a lock for his usual 35-45 saves again this year.

The goal of this exercise is to point out not getting too crazy over such a small sample of statistics, positively or negatively. Proven stars will more than likely return to levels that proven stars are used to performing at, statistically speaking. Now, that doesn't mean a top player can't have a down year (see Matt Kemp's 2010) but at least give everyone more than 1/8th of the overall schedule to prove their values to your fantasy baseball roster(s).

Which players are you buying are for real and what numbers are you predicting for them that might surprise most? Which players are you afraid are going to have an off or down year and are ready to cut ties with (drop or trade)? Please use the comments section below to get the conversation started.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes from April 19th, 2011

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Here are some fantasy baseball tidbits I picked up from games played on April 19th, 2011:

DH Adam Dunn, CHW has two hits in his last 27 at-bats and may be dropped down in the batting order.
RP J.P. Howell, TB, coming back from left shoulder surgery, is set to pitch in extended spring training after throwing a 35-pitch batting practice session. The reliever is not expected to rejoin the team until mid-May.
C Matt Wieters, BAL is 5-for-5 with eight RBI this season with runners in scoring position.
OF Nick Markakis, BAL has only one hit in his last 20 at-bats.
OF Ryan Braun, MIL is 9 for 19 in his last five games, and has reached safely in all 17 games this season.
Toronto activated RP Frank Francisco (right shoulder) off the 15-day DL and optioned SP Jesse Litsch to Triple-A Las Vegas. Francisco will be in the mix for saves with Jon Rauch depending on the situation.
3B David Wright, NYM is hitless in his last 16 at-bats with seven strikeouts.
OF Michael Bourn, HOU is 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts this year and has swiped 16 straight dating to last season.
SP Josh Johnson, FLA is now 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA, a 0.59 WHIP and a 9.00 K/9 ratio this season. He's allowed four hits or less in each of his four starts and batters are hitting .112 against him.
OF Logan Morrison, FLA left the game in the fifth inning with a strained arch in his left foot and hopes to be back in the lineup within a couple of days.
CL J.J. Putz, ARI is 4-for-4 in save chances this season with an 11.57 K/9 ratio over 7 IP.
3B/OF Alex Gordon, KC went 2-for-4, raising his batting average to .361, with two stolen bases.
OF Grady Sizemore, CLE is 5-for-9 with two doubles, two RBI and a home run in two games since returning from knee surgery. Indians manager Manny Acta plans to let him play three or four games every five days or so. Plan accordingly.
OF Andre Ethier, LAD went 1-for-4 and extended his hitting streak to 16 games. He's hitting .362 on the season.

Ups and Downs: April 9th, 2011

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This edition of Ups and Downs looks at a few players being added and dropped the most over the last seven days (according to ESPN leagues) and the possible reasons why.

SP Kyle Drabek, TOR (+63.9%) is settling in as the Blue Jays #2 starter quite nicely. He's struck out 12 in 13 innings and allowed just seven hits and two earned but has walked seven.
RP Jordan Walden, LAA (+58.2%) is now the Angels' closer and looks like he could be there for a while. He's 1-for-1 in save opportunities with a total of 7 K's in just 4.1 innings. Only 62.4% owned in ESPN leagues.
2B Freddy Sanchez, SF (+47.4%) was just 7% owned before opening the season with a .333 (9/27) BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI and 5 Runs. He definitely deserves to be owned while he's healthy and hitting.
OF Jose Tabata, PIT (+42.8%) was being touted as a "sleeper" coming into 2011 and has opened the season with an 8-game hitting streak, hitting .344 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 9 Runs and 3 SB. You're opportunity to get him off waivers has probably passed.
SP Edwin Jackson, CHW (+41.1%) is 2-0 with 20 K's in just 14 innings pitched. It's no surprise he's being added in so many leagues. It's VERY SURPRISING he's still available in 39.5% of leagues.
SP John Lackey, BOS (-32.3%) has allowed 17 H and 15 ER in just 8.2 IP. Ouch!
OF Manny Ramirez, TB (-29.8%) should be dropped in 100% of all leagues. I'll give managers a little time but if he continues to be rostered in your league much longer than you're league probably sucks.
OF Ryan Raburn, DET (-26.4%) was another preseason "sleeper" that seems to be stuck in a platoon with Brennan Boesch. What a shame.
RP Jake McGee, TB (-26.1%) was in the mix to become the Rays' closer this Spring but those dreams seemed to have faded. Not many save opportunities for a 1-6 team.
RP Fernando Rodney, LAA (-25%) has a 7.71 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP. It's clear to see why Walden is now the closer.

Have you already given up on your "sleepers" or late-round picks? Were you one of those teams in my drafts that was so focused on drafting next year's keepers that you passed on quality players that would help you win THIS YEAR? Feel free to share your early season struggles and/or successes in the comments section of this article.

A Steady Stream: Probables For 04/05/2011

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A Steady Stream will be a semi-regular column that looks at probable pitchers starting games tomorrow and owned in approximately less than 50% of all ESPN and/or Yahoo! leagues that could be "stream-worthy" if they are available in your league.

Here are my Stream-Worthy Starting Pitchers for games to be played on Tuesday, 04/05/2011 and the level of RISK associated with streaming:

Anibal Sanchez, FLA (65.6% ESPN; 46% Yahoo! owned) @ home vs WAS (Jason Marquis) - In the first three games of the season, the Washington Nationals, as a team, are batting .209 with 1 HR and 8 Runs Scored. RISK: LOW
Derek Lowe, ATL (58.1% E; 59% Y!) @ MIL (Yovani Gallardo) - Reports have Lowe using his slider more and increasing his K/9 from a career rate of 5.9 to a rate of 8.6 over his last five starts of 2010. He opened 2011 with 6 K's in 5.2 IP (9.5 K/9) and faces a Brewers team that strikes out a lot but also hit home runs (7 in 4 games). RISK: MODERATE
Gavin Floyd, CHW (24.4% E; 50% Y!) @ KC (Luke Hochevar) - The White Sox are scoring runs in bunches (8 runs per game) and Floyd should be the beneficiary of this lineup facing Hochevar. RISK: LOW
Mike Leake, CIN (1.1% E; 4% Y!) @ home vs HOU (J.A. Happ) - As a team, the Reds are batting .350 in their first three games. Leake should be able to control an Astros offense (and I use that term lightly) that has a 28/3 K/BB ratio. RISK: LOW
Jo-Jo Reyes, TOR (0.1% E; 1% Y!) @ home vs OAK (Dallas Braden) - Toronto is back to hitting home runs and scoring runs while Oakland is pitching well but struggling offensively. Is Reyes worth owning? This start will speak volumes about his fantasy value. RISK: MODERATE

Other possible streamers I'm simply avoiding:

Michael Pineda, SEA (16.9% E; 31% Y!) @ Alexi Ogando, TEX (3.8% E; 8% Y!) - This could turn into a slugfest with two rookie pitchers going. I've got my eye on these two pitchers for future streaming opportunities. RISK: HIGH x 2
James McDonald, PIT (4.2% E; 11% Y!) @ Kyle McClellan, STL (5.7% E; 30% Y!) - Again, too soon in the season to commit to either of these guys but worth monitoring. RISK: MODERATE x 2
Chris Young, NYM (1.2% E; 17% Y!) @ PHI (Cole Hamels) - The Phillies, even without Chase Utley, can be a scary offensive team, especially at home. RISK: HIGH

Is it too early to already be looking at streaming a pitcher or two? Was that part of your draft strategy (LIMA Plan)? What are your personal feelings on streaming pitchers and the practice that may take place in your league? Are there policies in place to deter such behavior (IP limits, transaction limits, etc)? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

2011 Draft Results: Middle Infielders Targeted

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Second base and shortstop continue to be shallow positions in fantasy baseball, with the upper tiers separating themselves from the middle and (God forbid) lower tiers pretty drastically. Only 16 positionally eligible players (9 2B; 7 SS) rank in the top 100, according to MockDraftCentral.com. So if you miss out on some of the upper-to-middle tier players, you could find yourself in a whole mess of trouble filling those roster slots all season long with whatever player is available on waivers and providing some level of fantasy value in return.

All five leagues I participated in this offseason utilized an extra roster spot for either middle infielders (MI) or infielder (IF), forcing team owners to go even deeper into this pool of players and hoping the ones they picked do more good than damage to their teams.

First, here are the results of my SLOW, online auction at the 2B, SS and MI positions over at CouchManagers.com:

Troy Tulowitzki ($39)
Neil Walker ($5)
Freddy Sanchez ($1)

I was aggressively involved in the bidding for both Hanley Ramirez and Tulowitzki until Ramirez went over the $40 mark and Tulo's other suitors seemed reluctant to take him into the $40 stratosphere. Honestly, if I was willing to go to $41 on a player it wouldn't have been Tulo. I was ready to jump back in on HanRam or change my focus towards Pujols and take it all the way up to $50. With Tulo on my roster to start the season, I'm a very happy camper.

Neil Walker was a definite target of mine and I was happily surprised he flew under the radar for just $5. But more on him in a bit. Freddy Sanchez was simply filler at the MI position that will hopefully hit near his .298 career average and give me 7-10 home runs.

Let's take a look at the players I was able to draft in each of my online snake draft leagues (draft pick in parenthesis):

Dustin Pedroia (25), Elvis Andrus (72), Neil Walker (144), Yunel Escobar (192) and Miguel Tejada (289)
Brandon Phillips (51), Stephen Drew (107) and Omar Infante (247)
Derek Jeter (64), Aaron Hill (105) and Ty Wigginton (301)
Elvis Andrus (78) and Neil Walker (162)

The Second Basemen: Dustin Pedroia was the guy I wanted in every league but was only able to pull off owning him in one. I'm very anxious to see the kind of numbers he can put up in that revamped, powerful Red Sox lineup. Brandon Phillips was a pick that I didn't want to make but his ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is currently 36.82 and getting his projected .270/90/20/80/20 at a +14 draft difference was too hard to pass up. Aaron Hill should give me 20 HR/70 RBI but with what batting average? Greater or less than .250? Neil Walker was my backup plan to missing out on Pedroia and that worked out for me in three of five leagues. A full season in the bigs could produce a .280/80/15/90/10.

The Shortstops: Somehow I wound up drafting Elvis Andrus twice without even trying. He was on my radar for runs and stolen bases and was too hard to pass up. I'm hoping his average stays near .280, though. Andrus was not my primary target as shortstop, though. I really wanted Jose Reyes in as many leagues as possible because I was banking on a return to fantasy dominance in this, the ever so important "contract year". Derek Jeter was another target of mine, despite the lack of confidence the fantasy baseball community seems to have in his abilities. We're talking about a player in a "down year" (in 2010) batting .270 and scoring 111 runs and just one season removed from batting .334 (in 2009). He may not be an MVP candidate but there's nothing stopping him from being a top 5 shortstop. Stephen Drew was a panic pick for me because there was a run on shortstops and I got caught up in the action. I'm already regretting it because he's yet to make an appearance this season due to injury and I'm stuck scrounging through waivers for a body to plug in.

The Backups: Omar Infante (2B/3B/OF) and Ty Wigginton (1B/2B/3B) were both targeted for their position eligibilities. If your league has a max games limit, having players on your roster that can fill in a game here and there for your stars will maximize your scoring opportunities. Yunel Escobar played better in 2010 after his trade to the Blue Jays and could be in line for a nice bounce-back season. Miguel Tejada (3B/SS) could benefit offensively from playing on a team that is expected to win a lot of games and, at pick 289, there's very little risk. I don't expect to keep both Escobar and Tejada on the same roster for very long. I'll keep whichever starts off hottest.

Going into a draft with a plan is great, especially for the more shallow roster positions like the middle infielders, but things can change very quickly and knowing when to hold steady, reach for a player or hit the panic button can make a huge difference to overall look of your roster.

What strategies did you use when it came to drafting players that qualified at the middle infielder positions? What unique settings does your league have in place that made some players more favorable than others? Do you change strategies based on a classic rotisserie league versus a head-to-head scoring league? Please feel free to comment on my players or share your personal experiences when looking back on your draft(s) outcomes.

Line of the Day: 04/02/2011

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SP Kyle Drabek of the Toronto Blue Jays pitched seven innings of one-hit ball, allowing one earned run, walking three while striking out seven to earn his first major league win. The Blue Jays beat the Twins 6-1. Drabek took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before allowing a single to Minnesota's Denard Span.

Line: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

Drabek is a young, quality right-hander that is only owned in 20.5% of ESPN leagues and 32% of Yahoo! leagues. This start proves he's worth keeping an eye on as an option to stream or pick up if your team is already been bitten by the injury bug.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Line of the Day: 04/01/2011

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C J. P. Arencibia of the Toronto Blue Jays was 3-for-4 with a triple, two home runs, five RBI, two runs and 11 total bases in a 13-3 Opening Day rout of the Minnesota Twins. Amazingly, he also hit two home runs in his major league debut last August.

Line: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 5 RBI, 2 HR

Arencibia is only owned in 21.3% of ESPN leagues and 29% of Yahoo! leagues. Before overspending for his services, be aware that it's being reported that Jose Molina will be catching Kyle Drabek in Saturday's game and it was reported during Spring Training that Arencibia will be splitting the catching duties 60/40 with Molina this season. Who knows how long that will hold true if Arencibia keeps having days like these.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Finding Keepers: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Toronto Blue Jays are a team filled with question marks about many of their young stud players and what type of production they will contribute in 2011. This could be a year where fantasy owners catch lightning in a bottle but only if they are willing to accept the risks associated with that happening. Let's take a look at all this lineup has to offer.

3B/OF Jose Bautista exploded on the fantasy baseball scene in 2010 with an MVP-caliber season, producing the following line, .260/109/54/124/9, and added 100 walks with a .378 OBP. Okay, 54 home runs are an unreal number and we all have to be expecting a regression, right? Well if he has a 20% regression in his home run numbers, that still projects him in the low 40's. The third base eligibility alone makes Bautista a "must-have" if you miss out on the proven elite.

1B/DH Adam Lind had a very productive 2009 (.305/35/114) and a disappointing 2010 (.237/23/72). Most 2011 projections have him sort of splitting the difference (.270/26/92). I think there's way too much uncertainty to lock him up as a keeper but definitely target him late in drafts as a DH until he gains his 1B eligibility, giving you a little more wiggle room to get him into your lineup.

If fantasy baseball has taught us anything, it's that there are tiers of players at each position and those tiers are used to determine if a position is deep or shallow. 2B Aaron Hill is projecting 20+ HR, 70+ RBI, 70+ R but an average in the .250's, .260's and .270's. So the question to ask yourself when deciding whether or not to keep Hill should be, "Can I live with an unpredictable average if it means getting at least 20/70/70 out of my second baseman?". I can live with that.

While preparing to write this article, I was teetering on whether to make a case for keeping SP Brandon Morrow or not when I saw this tweet appear in my updates. It took a few hours for the Blue Jays to issue an update on his condition and it looks like he may only miss one start. So Morrow's potential to reach 12+ Wins and 200 K's is still there but at what cost to your ERA (4.00+) and WHIP (1.40+)? His 10.9 K/9 ratio draws you in but his 4.1 BB/9 causes concern. I don't think Morrow is ready to be your fantasy ace but should be a nice middle-of-the-rotation starter with plenty of upside.

OF Travis Snider is another young Blue Jays hitter that has the potential to put up .270/20/70/70 numbers but hasn't proven it yet. I'm not a fan on using my keeper selections on young, unproven players with lots of potential. I hope the Jays commit an entire season to Snider so evaluating him as a keeper for next season is clearer.

Best of the rest but not keepers:

OF Rajai Davis will lead off for the Jays to start the year and could steal 50 bases again. Definitely worth targeting late in drafts as a source for steals, runs and a .280 batting average.
C J. P. Arencibia is being targeted by many fantasy owners passing on the top and middle tiers of catchers for his home run power. That power may come at the cost of a very low batting average and a 60/40 playing time split (think 100 games) with Jose Molina.
SP Kyle Drabek should start the season in the rotation and will have every chance to prove he belongs there long term. He definitely has dynasty league keeper value now.
SP Ricky Romero is slated to be the ace of this staff but not ready to be an ace on your fantasy roster.
3B Edwin Encarnacion is simply a place holder until über-prospect Brett Lawrie learns how to field his new position at AAA. Lawrie is also worthy of a keeper in deep dynasty leagues for his eventual 2012 arrival, if not sooner.

I'm sure after reading this article and scanning their roster, the word "potential" jumps out over and over again. This team may be competitive in 2011 but the 2012 season seems to be when these young players could show their true keeper values.

The entire series of "Finding Keepers" is now complete. It certainly has been a labor of love for me to commit to and complete the series. I think the quality and depth of the evaluations got stronger as I did more and more teams and believe I have the structure in place to do these again next offseason in a much more timely fashion. My goal will also be to get guest writers that cover each team regularly to chip in on some of the articles to truly get a perspective on the entire organization, rather than just at the major league level. I will admit that knowledge of team prospects is an aspect of the keepers where I was lacking and tried to incorporate more "dynasty league keepers" as I went along. My hope is that you, the readers, take the time to search for your favorite team and use the comments section to help fill in the gaps on players I may have missed or on how to make this series better come November 2011.

Ups and Downs: 03/18/2011

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As we continue to get closer to Opening Day, now seems like an appropriate time to publish another edition of Ups and Downs. Jobs are being won, injuries aren't healing as quickly as expected, veterans are being released and rookies are being sent to the minors. Here are the ones catching my eye and the impact they could have on your fantasy baseball roster.

Stock is Rising:

C/1B/3B/OF Jake Fox, BAL leads the MLB in home runs this Spring with seven while hitting .356 (16/45) yet still fighting to make in onto the Orioles' Opening Day roster. Let's get something straight, though. Spring stats don't matter. If Fox catches on with the Orioles as a super utility guy with catcher eligibility, he could be worth a very late round pick in deep mixed leagues with two-catcher rosters. Is he really much worse than having to select Jeff Mathis?
3B Chipper Jones, ATL is hitting .386 this Spring with three home runs and 11 RBI and looking healthy...for the moment. There will always be the risk of injury with Jones but at the moment, he's playing himself back into fantasy relevant. We all keep hearing that third base is going to be shallow in 2011 and even shallower if your league uses an extra CI or IF position. Keep an eye on his health as Spring winds down or at least until your league drafts.
1B Chris Davis, TEX has been touted as a sleeper for the last few years and hasn't produced enough when given the chance to help most fantasy owners. Well, this Spring, Davis is hitting .410 (16/39) with four home runs and an MLB-best 15 RBI as rumblings of "play me or trade me" start coming out of Texas. Will there be enough at bats to hand out with Michael Young and Mitch Moreland in the picture? Keep a close eye on how this one continues to play out over the next couple of weeks and you could truly have a sleeper on your hands as most owners are targeting Moreland late in drafts.
OF Michael Morse, WAS seems to be playing himself into the Nationals' starting left fielder with a very hot Spring. He's hitting .385 (15/39) with five home runs and showing the 20-25 HR potential he displayed last season (15 HR in 266 AB).
SP Jered Weaver, LAA is currently the 11th starting pitcher being drafted, according to
MockDraftCentral.com. So far this Spring, Weaver has pitched 13.1 innings and produced a 17/0 K/BB ratio. Somehow Zack Greinke is still being drafted ahead of Weaver. Absorb that information when you select Weaver as your fantasy baseball ace.

Stock is Falling:

2B Chase Utley, PHI makes the list of falling stocks for the second time this Spring. His knee doesn't seem to be getting any better and no timetable for his return is in place. It's hard to find the kind of fantasy numbers he provides from the second base position, so I can't recommend skipping him in drafts, but if you do draft him just make sure you also draft a serviceable Plan B.
SP Matt Garza, CHC is having a rough Spring so far with the Cubbies. In 10.2 innings, he has a 10.13 ERA, has allowed 13 hits and 12 earned runs and walked seven while striking out eight. These are just meaningless numbers in the grand scheme of things but are worth paying attention to when you are looking to draft a 8th to 10th round pitcher.
OF Justin Upton, ARI is having a relatively productive Spring (.289/3/7) but he's stolen one base and been thrown out FIVE times. Who does he think he is, Matt Kemp? Again, it's only Spring but something to be aware of if you are drafting him for his speed.
C J. P. Arencibia, TOR was on many people's sleeper lists for catchers and he isn't exactly living up to the hype. So far this Spring, he's 5/38 (.132 BA) for six total bases with 11 strikeouts. Might be time to wake up that sleeper.
SP Shaun Marcum, MIL is battling through some shoulder tightness this Spring. The numbers to like is that he currently has a 11/1 K/BB ratio. The numbers to fear are that he's allowed 15 hits in 11.2 innings pitched and reportedly lots 1-2mph off his fastball.
OF Bryce Harper, WAS being sent down was no surprise to most. Check out how fellow BBA members and I forecasted his 2011 and beyond.
2B Luis Castillo, NYM was finally released by the Mets. Enough said.

At this time of year everyone is walking around telling you that Spring Training statistics are worthless. There's definitely truth to that but some numbers can't be ignored. Pay attention to what managers and coaches are saying about players and which jobs are being won and lost heading towards Opening Day.

Thankful

TOR

This is the time of year where everyone takes a moment to voice all that they are currently thankful for, reflect on the past year and look towards what the future has in store. COSFBA is no different. The following are the Top 10 things COSFBA is very thankful for this holiday season:

10. Players with multi-position eligibility. These are the types of players that make every fantasy baseball roster better. Martin Prado (1B/2B/3B), Jose Bautista (3B/OF), Omar Infante (2B/3B/SS/OF), Ben Zobrist (1B/2B/OF) are just a few valuable players whose positional flexibility kept them in the lineup.
9. Bryce Harper. What's not to love about the future of the Washington Nationals? From the ridiculous amounts of eye black to tearing up the Arizona Fall League, this guy will keep fantasy baseball writers busy for years to come.
8. Perfect games and no hitters. Ubaldo Jimenez. Dallas Braden. Roy Halladay (x2). Edwin Jackson. Matt Garza. Sign me up for more of the same in 2011.
7. The Hot Stove season. Rumors. Signings. Trades. This time of year is why I gave up on fantasy football several years ago. Who needs football when baseball is now truly a 12-month sport. Twitter has been a phenomenal source of great information if you know who to follow.
6. Statistics. I'm a huge fan of advanced baseball statistics but will admit I'm a little late to the game. You won't see me quoting a whole lot about BABIP, FIP, WAR, VORP or wOBA but I'll be sure to make reference to resources I find valuable in my hunt to become more SABR-literate.
5. Awards. Starting with the Derek Jeter Gold Glove fiasco and ending with Josh Hamilton's AL MVP, the 2010 awards gave bloggers plenty to talk about and COSFBA got in on the action, too.
4. Albert Pujols. I'm sorry, but Pujols is fantasy baseball royalty and until he proves to be less than superhuman, he's the number one pick in all fantasy baseball formats.
3. Impact Rookies. Here's hoping 2011 brings another crop of rookies as good as Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson, Jaime Garcia, Danny Valencia, Gaby Sanchez, Neil Walker and more.
2. Closers on the cheap can change the fantasy baseball landscape of any league. Guys like John Axford, Kevin Gregg and Chris Perez will be the poster boys for next season's "never pay for saves" reasoning.

And the number one reason COSFBA is thankful this holiday season is...
1. Pitchers and catchers report to camps on February 13, 2011. Valentine's Day will come a day early this year and I will be sure to mark the 13th with a heart because "I Love You, baseball season". Just don't break my heart.

What are some of the baseball-related things you were thankful for in 2010 and hopeful for in 2011?

2010 Fantasy Baseball Awards: 10/09/2010

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The 2010 regular season is now behind us and it's time to hand out some hardware. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has new names for the awards we all know and love and I'll be handing them out from a fantasy perspective. And the winners are...

The Connie Mack Award for AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, TB

Joe Maddon manages the Rays like a true fantasy baseball god. Position flexibility is the best friend of every good fantasy baseball manager and Maddon gets the most out of his roster. Ben Zobrist played 15 games at 1B, 56 at 2B, 2 at 3B, 1 in LF, 14 in CF and 104 in RF. He used Sean Rodriguez at 1B for 3 games, 94 at 2B, 7 at 3B, 5 at SS, 5 in LF, 9 in CF and 8 in RF. He batted his catcher, John Jaso, in the leadoff spot for 169 at bats (+ 30 walks) to the tune of a .380 on-base percentage. Toss in guys like Reid Brignac (2B/SS/RF) and Willy Aybar (1B/2B/3B) and you can see why Maddon is taking home this award.
2nd Place: Ron Washington, TEX
3rd Place: Ron Gardenhire, MIN

The Connie Mack Award for NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, ATL

Bobby Cox managed his Braves to the NL Wild Card and probably helped many fantasy managers win their leagues with the likes of fantasy no-names such as 1B/2B/3B Martin Prado and 2B/3B/SS/LF/RF Omar Infante. Cox is single-handedly responsible for convincing Billy Wagner to come to Atlanta to be his closer and Wagner responded big time (7-2, 37 SV, 1.43 ERA, 0.87 WHIP). Add potential NL Rookie of the Year Jason Heyward and NL Comeback Player of the Year Tim Hudson into the mix and you can see why Bobby Cox is taking home this award.
2nd Place: Bruce Bochy, SF
3rd Place: Bud Black, SD

The Willie Mays Award for AL Rookie of the Year: RP Neftali Feliz, TEX

I hate the mantra, "Don't pay for saves", because sometimes saves are worth paying top dollar for (Mariano Rivera, for one). For those owners that were able to get Neftali Feliz at the end of their drafts (ADP 222.5), they struck fantasy gold. Frank Francisco opened the season as the Texas Rangers' closer and promptly blew two saves (April 8th and 10th). Feliz recorded his first save on April 12th and never looked back, converting 40 of 43 save opportunities the season.
2nd Place: Austin Jackson, DET
3rd Place: Brennan Boesch, DET

The Willie Mays Award for NL Rookie of the Year: C Buster Posey, SF

Most people would agree that this award was a two-horse race, Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. Looking at it from a fantasy perspective, their numbers were relatively similar. The differences are that Posey put his numbers (.305/18/67) in 108 games while Heyward put up his numbers (.277/18/72) in 142 games. Also, Hayward's ADP was 114.1 while Posey was virtually undrafted. Lastly, Posey put up premium numbers for a catcher and finished 3rd overall for his position while Heyward finished as the 40th ranked outfielder.
2nd Place: Jason Heyward, ATL
3rd Place: Jaime Garcia, STL

The Goose Gossage Award for AL Top Reliever: RP Rafael Soriano, TB

Rafael Soriano was acquired in a trade with the Atlanta Braves and immediately slotted to be the team's closer. Soriano responded by leading the AL in saves with 45 and proved to be an incredible fantasy value with an ADP of 161.8.
2nd Place: Joakim Soria, KC
3rd Place: Neftali Feliz, TEX

The Goose Gossage Award for NL Top Reliever: RP Carlos Marmol, CHC

The 2010 Chicago Cubs didn't have much go right for them but moving Carlos Marmol into the closer role was definitely the right move. Marmol saved 38 of 43 games while striking out an astounding 138 in just 77.2 innings pitched. That translated into an eye-popping 15.99 K/9 ratio. To put that into perspective, his 138 K's were more than big name starting pitchers such as Clay Buchholz (17-7, 120 K, 173.2 IP), Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 117 K, 129.2 IP) and Carl Pavano (17-11, 117, 221 IP).
2nd Place: Brian Wilson, SF
3rd Place: Heath Bell, SD

The Walter Johnson Award for AL Cy Young: SP Felix Hernandez, SEA

I've run a points-based fantasy baseball league for the last several years and the points for pitching categories has accurately predicted the Cy Young's (yes, even Zack Greinke). And this year's numbers spit out Felix Hernandez as the number one AL pitcher, hence the award. Where do other's fall on the list? CC Sabathia is 9th overall and 5th in the AL. David Price is 10th overall and 6th in the AL. Why isn't anyone talking about Jered Weaver (5th overall and 2nd in the AL) and Jon Lester (6th overall and 3rd in the AL) in the AL Cy Young race? Yes wins matter to a pitcher but there is more to winning this award than just wins.
2nd Place: Jered Weaver, LAA
3rd Place: Jon Lester, BOS

The Walter Johnson Award for NL Cy Young: SP Roy Halladay, PHI

This award allows for little controversy, in my humble opinion. Yes, the NL has some very worthy pitchers (Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum) but this award starts and ends with Roy Halladay. He lead the major leagues in innings pitched, was 5th in strikeouts, tied for 4th in quality starts, lead in complete games and shutouts...and oh, by the way, pitched a regular season perfect game (and a playoff no hitter). "Pay that man his money."
2nd Place: Adam Wainwright, STL
3rd Place: Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

The Stan Musial Award for AL MVP: 3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR

You don't hit 54 home runs in a season and NOT win an MVP award, especially when you were virtually undrafted, such as Jose Bautista was. Statistically speaking, he produced the second-most fantasy points behind a guy you may have heard of...Albert Pujols. Most "valuable" makes more sense to a fantasy baseball award than the real-life version. "Valuable" in the real world limits the award to players on contending teams because people will argue what good are 54 home runs to a .500 ball club.
2nd Place: Miguel Cabrera, DET
3rd Place: Robinson Cano, NYY

The Stan Musial Awards for NL MVP: 1B Albert Pujols, STL

Albert Pujols had a better season, statistically, than a guy that hit 54 home runs. Enough said. He continues to put up numbers, year after year, that validate him being drafted first in all fantasy baseball formats. His 162 game career averages are mind-boggling: 123 R, 198 H, 44 2B, 42 HR, 128 RBI, 95 BB, 67 K, 8 SB, .331 BA, .426 OBP, .624 SLG. A lot of people will take a chance on a player other than Pujols with the number one pick in 2011 (CarGo, Votto, Hamilton), but not me. I'm sticking with Albert.
2nd Place: Joey Votto, CIN
3rd Place: Carlos Gonzalez, COL

So there you have them. COSFBA's official ballot for the 2010 Baseball Bloggers Alliance Awards. I'd love some feedback regarding my selections. Just remember, these were selected from a fantasy baseball perspective. Thanks for an incredible season of baseball.

Line of the Day: 09/30/2010

TOR

3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR was 3-for-5 with two home runs, five RBI and three runs scored in the Blue Jays 13-2 rout of the Minnesota Twins. He's now up to an incredible fantasy line of .262/109/54/124/8 after his 9th multi-homer game of the season. Fantasy owners will be scrambling with the decision of what to expect out of him in 2011 and where to draft him. Hopefully you have him in a keeper league where the decision is simply keep him or toss him back into the free agent pool, which is hard to believe anyone would do with a 30+ HR potential player with 3B eligibility.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

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Did You Know? 09/23/2010

TOR

This edition of Did You Know? is all about Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays and his improbable assault on the 50-home run mark:

Bautista owns the Blue Jays' single-season home run record, breaking George Bell's 23-year-old mark of 47.
Bautista is the 26th player in MLB history to reach the 50-home run mark in a season, and the first since Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both did it in 2007.
All 50 of Bautista's home runs have been to left or left centerfield.
Bautista has 26 home runs since the All Star break, a Blue Jays’ record.
Bautista has a major league-high 31 home runs at home this season.

Fantasy owners will have to decide how high (or low) to draft Bautista in 2011. He's currently the 10th ranked player on ESPN and 9th ranked on Yahoo!. He will still be 3B/OF eligible next season, having played 48 games at 3B and 105 in the OF.

Line of the Day: 09/07/2010

TOR

OF Vernon Wells, TOR was 3-for-3 with two home runs, two RBI, two runs scored and a walk in an 8-5 win over the Texas Rangers. Wells now has four homers and eight RBI in his last three games and on pace for a 32 HR/91 RBI season. Not bad for a guy with an ADP of 170. Wells is currently ranked 69th on Yahoo! which could relate to a 5th-7th round pick in 2011.

Line of the Day: 09/01/2010

TOR

2B/OF Sean Rodriguez, TB was 3-for-3 with a triple, home run, RBI, run and stolen base in the Rays' 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Rodriguez was pegged as an early season "sleeper" but never got it going and lost out on playing time, which in turn killed his overall numbers (.264/48/9/38/11). It will be interesting to see how he fits into the mix for 2011.

Line of the Day: 08/23/2010

TOR

3B/OF Jose Bautista, TOR went 2-for-3 with two home runs, three RBI, two runs scored and a walk as the Blue Jays beat the New York Yankees 3-2. Bautista now leads the majors with 40 homers and is on pace for a staggering 52 HR, 124 RBI and 109 Runs while hitting less than 260. Who does he think he is? Adam Dunn? Ha! For all you owners that stuck with him, you are being rewarded handsomely.

Line of the Day: 08/20/2010

TOR

1B Lyle Overbay, TOR was 4-for-5 with two home runs, seven RBI and three runs scored in a 16-2 rout against the Boston Red Sox. Overbay is only 2.4% ESPN and 6% Yahoo! leagues owned, but really only a lower-tier first base option. With a .253 average, he's on pace for 20 HR, 72 RBI and 78 Runs. If your team is plagued by injuries, Overbay may be worth a look for the next six weeks.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Line of the Day: 08/16/2010

TOR

SP Shaun Marcum, TOR pitched a complete game one-hitter against the Oakland Athletics en route to his 11th win. The one hit allowed was a seventh inning home run to Connor Jackson. Marcum struck out five and walked one and continues to show flashes of brilliance mixed in with bouts of ineffectiveness. Spot starting in favorable match ups may be the way to go with him the rest of the way.

Agree? Disagree? Nominate your own Line of the Day player using the comments section or hitting me up on Twitter.

Line of the Day: 08/08/2010

TOR

SP Brandon Morrow, TOR pitched 8 2/3 innings of no-hit ball, en route to a 1-hit complete game shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing just two walks while striking out a staggering 17 batters. Morrow raised his already-league-leading strikeout rate to 10.67 K/9. With numbers like that, I was shocked to see he was only owned in 27.4% of ESPN leagues and 32% of Yahoo! leagues. His strikeout totals alone warrant higher ownership numbers. Now would be a good time to grab him if you are hurting in that category.