Happy Halloween

October 2009
These pictures are from my hubby and mine's Halloween party in 1985.  Above is me in my homemade costume that I was very proud of.  Below is my hubby as the Grim Reaper!  The rest are some of our friends that were at the party.



Our friends came as nuclear waste because they worked at the Palo Verde Nuclear Plant at the time.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN EVERYBODY!
from: Julie and Mike
(Mike did not have any pictures of himself in costume since he was 12.)

Separated at Birth

October 2009
I found this on http://totallylookslike.com/ and thought, "how true, lol".

DT: Werewolf; Arica Monster

October 2009
FIRST INVESTIGATION: WEREWOLF IN ROMANIA
Most believe that werewolves are fictional, turn from man to beast, and howl at the moon. To many of those living in Romania, they are a very real and dangerous predictor. Could these people be mistaking these nocturnal creatures for regular wolves or even bears? Just recently a Romanian village was so scared; they unearthed a human corpse, removed its heart, and drank its blood as some sort of ritual to ward off the creature. Near the rural Romanian town Brad, most of the recent sightings have been reported deep in the woods. The locals were so terrified, the abandoned their homes and fled to safety. The werewolf is believed to be a fast runner, have a very aggressive disposition, stalks isolated Romanian forest in the dead of night, coved in a dark fur, rises up on two legs when it attacks its victims, its mussel is larger and broader than a normal wolf, and its distinct call can be heard for miles.

They flew 20 hours to Bucharest, Romania where they find they luggage a mess. After they were momentarily detained at customs for putting their reason for visit as "werewolf hunting", they headed off to begin their werewolf search. Josh starts with talking to Ion Ghinoiu, a leading anthropologist, an expert in all things werewolf. He tells him that this werewolf tradition is prehistoric and is still believed by the people of Romania today. He told them that they needed to take a train to the back woods of Romania and talk to the people living there. After finally getting on the train, Josh and the DT team travel over 100 miles to the town of Sibiu. The weather there was extremely cold and they arrived at nightfall. After finding lodging, they talked to the owner about the werewolf sightings and enjoyed some fun dancing. The owner, Coldea Sorin, tells Josh that many in the forest area do believe in the werewolf. No one will walk in the forest at night for fear that the creature will get them. He tells them that they need to travel further north to Brad where a werewolf was recently sighted and the villagers fled. He also told him that there was a cave that the villagers were convinced that the werewolf hides in it. In the morning they made it to Brad and went to their make-shift zoo to check out the wolves there. Then they spoke to some of the villagers about the werewolf. They pointed up in the mountains where the village was abandoned and 60 families used to live. Now only 14 people are left living in Brad.

They headed up to where the villagers told them the white cross was located marking the beginning of the abandoned village and also where the cave was located. They had to climb a very shear cliff to get to the location of the village and cave. After finally reaching the top, they hiked up higher and found the cave. Josh, Evan and Mike went inside to check out the main tunnel, while Sharra and Bicha stayed at the mouth of the cave, and Jael, Rex and Gabe checked out some of the side tunnels. While inside, Josh notices claw marks and finds human bones and hair fibers or could be fur. They leave the cave and find a ride on a horse drawn wagon to the edge of the abandoned village. They finally arrived at the cross marking the village’s edge, set up base camp 100 yards from the village, and set up cameras with raw meat underneath them. While Josh and Sharra headed west with the flir camera, Jael and Bicha headed east, and Rex monitored the equipment back at base camp. On the flir Josh gets a hit and they run towards it. When they got to the location, it was gone. Meanwhile, Jael and Bicha hear a strange noise in the dark woods. Josh and Sharra arrive at the abandoned village and check out the ruined buildings with caution. They noticed that things were left like the people left there in a hurry. It begins to snow so he and Sharra return to base camp. Jael and Bicha discover some large footprints while Jael feels very cold and becomes ill. Back at base camp Josh decides that he, Rex, Mike and Evan will return to where the footprint was found. They find it, take pictures and castings of the prints for analysis. Evan sees two eyes through his camera while they all hear howling. Josh sees the eyes too and they move towards it, and then Evan takes a tumble and falls. They continued until dawn then return to Los Angeles to have their evidence looked at. The fur analyzes turned up to be just a Romanian wolf. They took the castings to Dr. Jim Dines, a mammalogist, who said that the prints were canine footprints or wolf. The larger prints he couldn't say, which makes Josh wonder if they belonged to the elusive werewolf or another type of mysterious canine animal.


SECOND INVESTIGATION: ARICA DINOSAURS IN CHILE

The Arica desert in Chile covers 70 thousand miles uninhabitable and unexplored rock. Over 20 million years old and 50 times drier than the Californian desert, it was not a place Josh really wanted to be. On the lonely desert road, people have reported seeing a dinosaur-like creature keeping pace with their cars. This Arican dinosaur has reported to have survived in the baron caves and desert of Chile. This creature has been reported to have leathery skin, very large in stature, presumed to live near a water source, stands upright on two legs and attacks with its razor sharp teeth. It leaves a unique three-toed print and reported to be a very fast runner.

They flew over 5,000 miles to the city of Artofagasta, Chile and drove to the town of Arica. This is the town where several recent eyewitnesses have seen the creature. Along the way they stopped to talk to Caodero Santoro, a paleontologist about the recent sightings. He has been studying the possibility of the monster for years and could tell him if the recent sightings were plausible. He tells Josh that the Arican desert is one of the places that used to have dinosaurs. Eyewitnesses tell him that they saw the dinosaur while driving on the desert highway. Some say that it just stood in front of their car, stared at them, and then ran off. All the sightings have been narrowed down to a section in the Pampa Ancha area. Josh decides to charter a plane to spot the green oasis area where the creature might use as a food and water source. But after referring to the pilot as Mr. Magoo, he felt uncomfortable to fly with him. They rent quad runners and head out to look for any signs of the creatures existence. While driving around, Josh spots a huge footprint with three toes. They took castings and went on foot from there. They set up base camp and cameras, and set out to check out the perimeter.

Josh and Jael get a hit on the flir moving up in a canyon area several hundred feet in front of them. They try to fine a way to get to it but have trouble finding a path. Meanwhile, Rex hears noises and rocks falling off the canyon walls around him. He tries to find the source but has trouble getting anywhere. Back to Josh and Jael who find a paw from some animal that looked like it was eaten. Slipping and sliding around they make their way down where Jael spots some excrement for which they bag for evidence. They all meet back at base camp where they have different groups head out again. Sharra and Bicha hear something moving around, like it was something heavy. Suddenly they take off running and said that something was chasing them. Meanwhile, Josh, Mike and Gabe find a graveyard and hear water running. They follow the sound of rushing water and hear something large moving in the bushes. They move towards it, then it makes a loud noise and runs off. They chase it down and find the water source they were looking for.

Back in Los Angeles they took the footprint cast to Dr. Luis Chiappe, paleontologist, who said that it looked like a print from a meat eating dinosaur. This footprint fit the stories that the local witnesses told about seeing the dinosaur. Also, a huge ostrich-like bird could be what the eyewitnesses have seen which resembled the dinosaur.

~Julie~

Should the Braves Trade Javier Vazquez?

October 2009
With word coming down yesterday that the Braves and Tim Hudson have come to terms on a contract extension, the Braves officially have a surplus of starting pitching. In addition to Hudson, the Braves have Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Javier Vazquez. Six starters for five rotation spots.

Even though too much starting pitching is never a bad thing, but the Braves need a big bat in the middle of the order. With their surplus of starting pitching, the Braves can now move one of their starting pitchers in return for a big bat.

So which starting pitcher should the Braves look to move?

Jair Jurrjens: There has been some talk that Jurrjens might be the guy to move, but there is no way that the Braves should move Jurrjens.

Tommy Hanson: No chance.

Derek Lowe: The Braves would love to move Lowe and the $45 million dollars owed to him, but the chances of the Braves actually finding a taker are slim to none. And even if the Braves find a taker for Lowe, the chances of them receiving anything of value in return is next to nothing.

Kenshin Kawakami: Kawakami put together a good first season with the Braves and is signed for a very reasonable 2 year/$13 million dollar contract. While Kawakami has value, I'm not sure he can bring back the type of power hitter the Braves are looking for.
(I suggested Kawakami for Corey Hart a few weeks back)

Javier Vazquez: Vazquez is coming off the best season of his career in which he won 15 games, struck out 238 hitters, and produced an ERA of 2.87. Simply put, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League.

Obviously, Vazquez has a good deal of value. I've heard the argument that the Braves should take advantage of Vazquez's stellar 2009 season and trade him for the best power hitter they can find. However, I'm skeptical that the Braves would be able to get a significant package for Vazquez for two reasons:

1. free agency

-After the 2010 season, Vazquez will be a free agent. Is there any team out there willing to trade a potent power bat for one season of Vazquez?

2. no trade clause

-Vazquez can turn down any trade to teams in the NL West and AL West. That significantly limits the market for Vazquez and probably eliminates two teams that need an ace (Angels and Dodgers).

In short, I don't know if the Braves will be able to get a legitimate power hitter in return for Vazquez. However, if the Braves can find a taker for Vazquez's salary and receive some quality prospects in return, that'd be something GM Frank Wren should consider only if he can parlay the Vazquez savings into signing a power hitter that would help the Braves compete in 2010. It remains to be seen if the Braves are willing to take on another long term contract, but acquiring a power hitter needs to be their priority this offseason.

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Hypothetically Speaking: Cliff Lee, the Free Agent

October 2009
As I watched Cliff Lee dominate the Yankees last night, two things came to my mind:

1. Cliff Lee is one of the top 5 starting pitchers in baseball
2. Too bad Cliff Lee was not a free agent after this season

Seriously, could you imagine the type of contract that Cliff Lee would be in line for? His resume is awfully impressive:

-AL CY Young award in 2008
-22 wins, 2.54 ERA in 2008
-14 wins, 3.22 ERA in 2009
-3 wins with a 0.81 ERA in the 2009 postseason (so far)
-31 years old

While I doubt Lee would come close to signing a Sabathia-esque deal, there is no doubt in my mind that Lee's contract would have exceeded the AJ Burnett contract, the John Lackey contract, and probably topped $100 million dollars.

In fact, it would not have shocked me if Lee received something like a 5 year/$110 million dollar contract if he was a free agent this offseason. Is that figure excessive?

With his performance this offseason, Lee is certainly raising his free agent stock when he hits the free agent market in 2010. Even though Lee will be 32 after the 2010 season, it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that Lee will command a five or even six year contract on the open market as long as he performs well once again in 2010.

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Can the Mariners Afford to Take a Chance on Aroldis Chapman?

October 2009
According to Larry Stone, the Mariners have some serious interest in the Cuban fireballer:
"The Mariners have stepped up their pursuit of free agent Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman and are asking to meet with him and his agent, Edwin Mejia,, in the coming week, according to a source.

There are no details yet on a date or location of a potential meeting by Chapman with Seattle officials. Chapman is being pursued by numerous teams, the Yankees and Red Sox most fervently, according to reports. The Yankees hosted him for Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, while Chapman is scheduled to throw a bullpen session today at Fenway Park."
No surprise there. The Mariners have to be looking for a starting pitching this offseason and Chapman might be the best long term investment on the market. But here comes the real important question: can the Mariners compete for the Yankees and Red Sox for Chapman's services?

The logical answer is no. Both of those teams have superior payrolls and should be able to trump any offer the Mariners make for Chapman. That is of course, if the Yankees or Red Sox actually want Chapman.

But there is a good reason not to count out the Mariners in the Chapman bidding: payroll flexibility. The Mariners are only committed to $40 million+ in player salaries next season (before arbitration), so they could conceivably have $40-$50 million to spend if they are going to approach their 2009 payroll of $98 million.

Granted the Mariners have lots of holes to fill this offseason and need to seriously consider giving Felix Hernandez an extension, but Chapman might be a good risk for them to take if the price is right. The Mariners have a good history of success with international players (Ichiro, Kaz Sasaki, Kenji Johjima), but obviously Chapman is a different story since he is coming from Cuba. We'll see if the Mariners international success is a selling point for Chapman.

Then again, I'm not sure how interested the Mariners are in committing a boatload of payroll into a starting pitcher after the Carlos Silva debacle...

Is it worth it for the Mariners to go after Chapman? What type of contract would be acceptable for the Mariners?

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Hypothetically Speaking: The Adrian Gonzalez Contract Extension

October 2009

No one really seems to think that Adrian Gonzalez will remain with the Padres in the long term. Given the Padres financial limitations, the odds of the Padres signing Gonzalez to a contract extension seem to be slim to none.

But I'm not ready to give up just yet. Two things need to happen for the Padres and Gonzalez to have any chance of a deal:

1. Gonzalez wants to stay in San Diego and is willing to take a hometown discount
2. The Padres' payroll will increase from around $40 million in 2010 to $70-$80 million by 2012 or 2013.

If those two things don't occur, then there is virtually no chance of a deal happening.

But let's stay positive. What would it take for the Padres to keep Adrian Gonzalez long term? Let's take a look at what each side would need to make Gonzalez a Padre for the foreseeable future.

Padres

1. Buyout at least two years of Gonzalez's free agency
2. Salary structure that fits the Padres' potentially growing payroll in the coming years

The Adrian Gonzalez Camp

1. Increase salary in each 2010 and 2011

(Note: In my opinion, the Padres' best chance to extend Gonzalez is this offseason because they can offer him a salary boost in each of the next two seasons. That is something that could appeal strongly to Gonzalez, depending on how much he wants to stay in San Diego)

2. Yearly salaries that demonstrate how much the Padres value his performance

3. Contract that allows him to become a free agent again in the near future

So how about this deal for Gonzalez and the Padres?

(5 years/$70 million)

Here is the contractual breakdown:

2010: $9 million
2011: $12 million
2012: $15 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $18 million

Why it works for the Padres:

1. keep Gonzalez long term

2. Gonzalez's salary should not account for more than 20-25% of the team's total payroll at any point (as long as Moorad is willing to increase payroll to $70-$80 million in the coming years)

Why it works for Gonzalez:

1. He'd earn almost $11 million dollars in 2010 and 2011, just by agreeing to a new contract (scheduled to earn $10.25 million over the next two years, but he would earn $21 million in 2010 and 2011 with this extension)

2. Demonstrates how strongly the Padres value his abilities

3. Gonzalez would become a free agent when he is just 32 years old. He could be in line for another massive contract

4. He would be one of the highest paid first baseman in 2012-2014

Again, Gonzalez could probably do much better on the free agent market in 2011 simply by maximizing his value and allowing the big market clubs to big up his services, but this offer meets the needs of both sides.

Is this contract realistic? Should the Padres approach Gonzalez about an extension?

Thoughts?

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The Dreaded Dust Storm: It's Back!

October 2009
Every year during the monsoon season in Arizona, a massive dust storm moves through the state and swallows up every city in its path. Tonight, it has returned. These dust storms devourer whole cities like Tucson, Phoenix and all their surrounding cities. I have seen them on the TV news slowly making a meal of people, homes, vehicles and anything else in their disruptive path. You watch as a huge wall of dust makes its way slowly towards the city you live in knowing what is about to come. The sky turns from blue to a dusty brown and you feel the wind pick up in a rapid movement. For a few minutes, your eyes water and you can’t breath. It is a person suffering with allergies worst nightmare. (That would be me). You watch as your lawn furniture topples over and flies into your neighbors yard.  You are better off being home or safely in a building and not in your car on the road because the visibility will disappear quickly as it moves over your vehicle.

One time after picking up my kids from a water park, we got caught in one. The visibility quickly went from clear to zero. I put on my low beams and moved over to the right as far as I could. The car in front of me disappeared which made it pretty scary. We sat there hoping that other cars would see us if they were stupid enough to continue driving. After a few minutes, the dust and wind went by and I was able to see the road and other cars again.

I realize that a dust storm is not a bad as a tornado or hurricane, but for us Zonies its something we live with every year and causes lots of damage. But, considering what lives in the Fog and Mist, we wonder what type of creepy creature is living in the Duststorm. Muahahahaha!

~Julie~

Don't Expect Any Big Moves from the Cubs this Winter

October 2009
If there are any Cubs fans out there dreaming about a the Cubs making a big splash this offseason, dream on:
Except for one thing. Anyone expecting a dramatic shift in philosophy will be in for a huge letdown. The Cubs might be getting a new owner, but they figure to keep doing business the same old way. At least for the next year or two. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it could be a blind-side blow to frustrated Cubs fans craving instant change.

In fact, this might be the most dormant offseason for the Cubs during Jim Hendry's eight winters as general manager. The message you can expect Ricketts to deliver Friday will be simple: There is no magic formula or giant check that will instantly turn the Cubs into champions. He won't start throwing money around to right 101 years, worth of wrongs.

It's enough of a shock to leave Ronnie Woo Woo speechless. Ricketts has a sound baseball philosophy, but that won't soothe the masses. If you want a glimpse at how the Ricketts era will begin, study the final two years of the Tribune Company's tenure under president Crane Kenney, who remarkably retains his title even without the security blanket he enjoyed in The Tower.

When team executives meet in Arizona next month to map the future, Hendry can expect a payroll in the $143 million range—a tick above what he had last season. With so many contracts ballooning in 2010, there won't be any room for a big deal. And don't expect Ricketts to cave in at the last minute to get that big name."
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Cubs already have $120 million committed in player salaries before arbitration. The Cubs payroll is sure to increase once arbitration raises are given out to Ryan Theriot, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, and others.

So if the Cubs' 2010 payroll is indeed $143 million, then you'd figure that GM Jim Hendry would have about $6-10 million to play with to sign free agents and re-sign their own free agents (John Grabow). I'd love to see the Cubs add another arm in the bullpen and maybe even a second baseman depending on how much the Cubs trust Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker.

The best things the Cubs can do this offseason are simple:
1. Figure out what is happening with Milton Bradley
2. Get healthy
3. avoid any more long term deals
4. accumulate depth

I still think the Cubs are one of the more talented groups the National League. While this group as a whole underperformed in 2009, there is plenty of upside on this roster for the Cubs to make some noise in 2010 without making significant noise on the free agent market.

Thoughts?

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Can the Padres Sign Adrian Gonzalez Long Term?

October 2009
In 2009, the Padres' payroll ranked 29th in all of baseball with only the frugal Marlins behind them. However, there seemed to be hope on the horizon for a increased payroll when Jeff Moorad became the principal owner of the ballclub:
"Next season will now have to be re-evaluated given the Peavy deal," Moorad said. "I'm ultimately comfortable with a payroll in the $70-80 million [range], but it's likely that it will take us a couple years to get back to that level.

"The good news is we now have an opportunity to reconstruct the payroll in a careful, strategic way that allows for a continued focus and emphasis on scouting and player development."
A $70-$80 million dollar payroll seemed realistic enough. Right now, it's virtually impossible to compete with a payroll of less than $60-$65 million and even then the odds are not in your favor. But adding $30 million or so to the payroll over time seemed to be a logical way for the Padres to potentially keep some of their young talent long term. Namely, Adrian Gonzalez. The slugging first baseman will be a free agent after the 2011 season and has put up remarkable offensive numbers despite playing half his games in PETCO Park and having limited offensive talent surrounding him.

If the Padres want to keep Gonzalez around, they would likely have to commit at least $15 million annually over the course of six or seven years. And even that total might not get it done, but it would at least put the Padres in the ballpark. The Padres would still be committing around 20% of their payroll to Adrian Gonzalez, which is a large amount, but certainly not impossible for the team to work around.

However, if this statement by former GM Kevin Towers is true, then the chances of Adrian Gonzalez playing in San Diego long term are zero:
In addition, nobody knows how much it's costing new owner Jeff Moorad to complete his buyout of John Moores. "They're going to have a $40 million payroll for the foreseeable future," said recently fired Padres GM Kevin Towers, "and there's just no way they can devote half of that to one player. It's just a matter of when they decide to trade (Gonzalez)."
I don't care how much the Padres love Gonzalez because there is no way they could commit at least $15 million to Gonzalez with a $40 million dollar payroll (38%).

So does anyone actually think the Padres can keep Adrian Gonzalez? Would they be better off trading him now?

Thoughts?

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Note to Alex Anthopoulos: Follow the Dan O'Dowd Model

October 2009
As new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos begins his first offseason with the Blue Jays as GM, there are plenty of questions surfacing about the direction of the team.

-What will the Blue Jays do with Roy Halladay?
-Are the Blue Jays going to rebuild?
-Can the Blue Jays compete in the AL East in 2010?

The Blue Jays struggles competing in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox in the Ricciardi era have been well documented. While the Red Sox and Yankees spend well north of $100 million dollars on player salaries, the Blue Jays have remained in the middle of the pack, only exceeding $90 million ($97 million, 2008) once.

As a result, the Blue Jays over the past eight years under Ricciardi have been stagnant. The Blue Jays finished in second place in the AL East once under Ricciardi, never made the playoffs, and could never put together a team deep enough to seriously compete in the AL East. The Blue Jays have taken a number of different approaches over the past eight years:

1. Sign big free agents
-Ricciardi signed Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan, and AJ Burnett to big (and controversial) contracts during his tenure

2. Build through the farm
-Players like Roy Halladay, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Adam Lind, and Aaron Hill all came up through the Blue Jays' farm system. That's an impressive list of talent, but that talent has yet to translate over to wins.

For the Blue Jays to sustain long term success in the ultra competitive AL East, which approach should Anthopoulous take?

Well, that decision is obvious to me: build through the farm. And the answer is not simply because the Blue Jays cannot compete with the payrolls of the Red Sox and Yankees.

The answer lies with the Blue Jays center fielder: Vernon Wells. The Blue Jays owe Wells a ridiculous $98.5 million over the next five years, which is devastating to the Blue Jays because Wells has gone from a franchise cornerstone to below average outfielder in just a few seasons. For whatever reason, Wells has been declining rapidly.

Can the Blue Jays realistically compete if they have a struggling player taking up 10-22% of their total payroll (assume Blue Jays total payroll is roughly $80 million)? Hard to say. But hope is not lost for Anthopoulous: just look at Colorado.

In 2001, the Rockies signed "cornerstone" first baseman Todd Helton to a huge 9 year/$141 million dollar extension that handcuffed the Rockies payroll flexibility for years. By 2006, Helton's contract took up a ridiculous 39% of the Rockies total payroll.

But even with Helton's massive contract and the Rockies small payroll, O'Dowd was able to accumulate great young talent through the draft and smart trades. Players like Ubaldo Jimenez, Brad Hawpe, Troy Tulowitzki, Garrett Atkins, Aaron Cook, Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Hutson Street are all examples of talented, cheap, young players, who either developed in the Rockies system or were acquired via trade. As a result of his efforts, O'Dowd's Rockies have made the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 years.

Realistically, can Anthopoulos follow the O'Dowd model to success? It will be very difficult. Competing economically with the Red Sox and Yankees is completely different than competing with the Dodgers and Giants. But honestly, this is the only way the Blue Jays can realistically look to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in the future.

And in all fairness, the Blue Jays will need Vernon Wells to become a productive player once again. Even though Todd Helton has been declining since 2005, he's still productive hitter and far from a liability at the dish. The turnaround of the Blue Jays will directly coincide with the redemption of Vernon Wells.

With that in mind, I'd trade Roy Halladay this offseason, accumulate as much young talent as possible, and begin a short term rebuilding process with the goal being to compete in the AL East by 2012. Eliminate short term mediocrity in the name of long term success.

Thoughts?

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2009 World Series Bound

October 2009
2009 American League Champions

Congratulations, Yankees.

Can the Dodgers Find an Ace?

October 2009
As the Dodgers enter free agency, it's apparent that they have a glaring need for a top flight starting pitcher. However, it looks as though GM Ned Colletti is setting the bar low for himself:
The Dodgers lacked an ace on their pitching staff, with youngsters Clayton Kershaw and All-Star Chad Billingsley showing fleeting stretches of wanting to claim that title.

"Clayton Kershaw has not been lobbying for it, but just the way he's pitched, he's certainly the favorite," Torre said. "Billingsley, even though he had a rough second half, he certainly showed us the personality and the ability to be a No. 1-type guy."

Veteran Randy Wolf proved to be the most dependable and durable starter, although the left-hander is a free agent.

Colletti said the Dodgers are considering adding one or two more starters and perhaps a couple of relievers to the bullpen, which he expects to remain mostly intact.

"You'd like to find an ace, but you got one hanging around?" he said. "It's not like you have a choice of five or six (free agents) that you can pick from."

That statement does have some level of truth to it. On the free agent market, the only true "ace" out there is John Lackey, but he is going to require a handsome long term contract and a hefty annual salary.

But make no mistake about it, there is potential for Colletti to find his ace on the open market. I'd suggest taking the Red Sox approach and taking a flier on a "low risk, high reward" starting pitcher, who could turn into the ace the Dodgers crave...if he stays healthy. In addition, this strategy would fit nicely with what Ned Colletti has done in years past with the Dodgers, namely sign veteran free agents to short term contracts. Here are some suggestions for Colletti:

-Erik Bedard:
The good:left handed, potential ace, only 30 years old, one year deal?
The bad: injured in each of the past two seasons, 30 starts total in 2008 and 2009

-Justin Duchscherer:
The good: right handed, potential top of the rotation starter, one year deal?
The bad: depression issues, missed all of 2009, never started more than 22 games in a season

-Brett Myers
The good: only 29 years old, has potential to be a solid starting pitcher, one year deal?
The bad: is he a starter? Are his best years behind him? (has not put together solid season in starting rotation since 2006)

Other options: Kelvim Escobar, Rich Harden (sort of)

If you were Ned Colletti, would you go after any of these "low risk/high reward" options? If so, which one?

Thoughts?

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How Will Ben Sheets Fare on the Free Agent Market?

October 2009
After John Lackey, there is no other top flight starter available on the free agent market. Randy Wolf is good, but he is not an ace. Joel Pineiro had a solid 2009, but no one knows if he can repeat that. No one knows exactly how Aroldis Chapman will fare in the majors. Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer are very good pitchers when healthy, but the problem has been keeping them healthy.

One very intriguing name on the free agent market is winter is Ben Sheets. Assuming Sheets is healthy, he could be a real difference maker for a contending team. Where does Ben Sheets fit on the free agent market?
"Assuming Sheets, a four-time National League All-Star, is healthy, he could be highly-coveted player on what appears to be a thin free-agent pitching market. Sheets nearly signed with the Rangers last winter before concerns about his elbow scuttled the deal, and is now open to offers from all 30 teams including the Brewers, despite his somewhat complicated exit from Milwaukee.

Sheets, who debuted with the Brewers in 2001 and by 2008 was the player with the longest tenure with the club, worked much of the second half of the 2008 season with elbow pain and only revealed the torn flexor tendon in October, when he was left off Milwaukee's postseason roster.

At the time, the medical prognosis was that with rest and exercise and rehab Sheets would recover. The team was so comfortable with that diagnosis that it extended a Dec. 2 offer of arbitration to Sheets, who was free agent-eligible for the first time in his career.

Had Sheets accepted that offer, he would have been considered a signed player for 2009 at a salary to be determined, almost certainly higher than the $11 million he earned in 2008 when he finished 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 31 starts and started the All-Star Game for the National League."
I have no doubt that Sheets will be an attractive commodity on the free agent market. Will he get a one year deal loaded with incentives? And if he can prove he's healthy, then is it out of the realm of possibility to think that Sheets could get a multi year contract?


Thoughts?

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The Fourth Kind

October 2009

This movie seems really creepy to me!

"1n 1972, a scale of measurement was established for alien encounters. When a UFO is sighted, it is called an encounter of the first kind. When evidence is collected, it is known as an encounter of the second kind. When contact is made with extraterrestrials, it is the third kind. The next level, abduction, is the fourth kind. This encounter has been the most difficult to document-until now. Set in modern-day Nome, Alaska, where--mysteriously since the 1960s--a disproportionate number of the population has been reported missing every year. Despite multiple FBI investigations of the region, the truth has never been discovered. Here in this remote region, psychologist Dr. Abigail Tyler began videotaping sessions with traumatized patients and unwittingly discovered some of the most disturbing evidence of alien abduction ever documented."

Ramon Hernandez and the Catching Market

October 2009
The weak crop of free agent catchers might become slightly more interesting:
The $8.5 club option ($1M buyout) must be exercised or declined on catcher Ramon Hernandez. That doesn't have to be decided until soon after the World Series. My take: the Reds won't pick up the option but will try to re-negotiate for a lower-priced deal.
As I see it, there are two sides to this story.

Side 1: The Reds would be making the smart move by not picking up Hernandez's option. The team simply cannot afford to spend $8.5 million in 2010 to an aging catcher.

Side 2: If the Reds don't pick up the option, Hernandez might find a litany of suitors on the free agent market. The free agent crop of catchers in pretty weak this season (led by Benjie Molina and Rod Barajas) and there's a good chance Hernandez could bolt. With that in mind, would the Reds feel comfortable letting Ryan Hanigan play full time behind the plate in 2010?

I think it's pretty safe to say that the Reds will not pick up the option. When that happens, does Hernandez become the most attractive catcher on the free agent market despite his disappointing 2009 season? He's only 33 years old, calls a very good game, and still has some pop in his bat (despite hitting only 5 HR this year). Is there any possibility that Hernandez could land a multi year contract with another club?

Thoughts?

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Should the Royals Trade Joakim Soria?

October 2009
Should the Royals trade one of their best pieces to acquire more pieces? You decide:
"Aside from a barstool, there may be no more emotional position in baseball than closer. This is certainly true for Jonathan Papelbon and K-Rod, but more, it's true for the people watching.

So long as it doesn't get watered down from blowouts, the best moment at Kauffman Stadium is when the video boards set fire and Slash starts playing "Welcome to the Jungle" and Joakim Soria comes out from the bullpen to throw fastballs at the knees and 67-mph curveballs through bats.

Beyond his success -- Soria is, what, one of the four best closers in baseball? -- he is the shining example of what the Royals' current scouting department is capable of. They got him in the Rule 5 draft, for $50,000, which is the equivalent of you getting a two-week Hawaiian vacation for 50 cents.

----snip-----

There's something that's been discussed in certain circles of Royals fans, and this offseason it should be out in the open.

Soria is among the Royals' very best trading chips, and they should look long and hard about using it."
Jeez, this a tough one. There's so much to like about Soria if you're a Royals fan. Soria is one of the best closers in baseball. Soria is only 25 years old. Soria is signed through 2014 to a very team friendly deal.

In short, Soria is one of the only commodities the Royals have right now.

So then why would the Royals want to trade Soria?

The answer is simple yet painful: the Royals have so many holes to fill that they need to acquire as many useful pieces as possible. You can make the case that the Royals roster right now contains only 4 or 5 players that any team would have interest in acquiring: Greinke, Butler, Dejesus, maybe Teahen, and Soria. If the Royals are going to add any talent this offseason via trade, then Soria is one of the only guys that can actually yield a substantial return.

But ask yourselves this: is now the best time for the Royals to trade Soria? Will they maximize his value? I'm not sure about that. Soria missed a month with shoulder issues and the free agent market is already loaded with closers (Valverde, Rodney, Soriano, etc.) while a number of big name closers have been rumored in potential deals (Papelbon, Nathan). Given his contract, age, and ability level; I'm sure many teams would prefer Soria over all those guys. Whether or not they would be willing to pay the Royals' heavy price tag is another story.

If the Royals are going to trade Soria, they need to be completely overwhelmed by the package offered to them. The goal should not simply be to get back as many useful pieces as they can, but to maximize Soria's value. If Moore cannot find a package that he feels maximizes Soria's value, then no deal should be made.

Now comes the hard part for Dayton Moore: finding out when Soria's value will be at its peak.

And now comes the hard part for Royals fans: trusting Dayton Moore's decision making.


Thoughts?

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DT: Haunted Lost City; Thunderbird

October 2009
FIRST INVESTIGATION: MACHU PICCHU, PERUThe ancient City of Machu Picchu is Peru's most recognizable tourist attraction and one of the most familiar symbols of the Inca Empire.

“The Incas started building it around AD 1430 but was abandoned as an official site for the Inca rulers a hundred years later at the time of the Spanish conquest of the Inca Empire. Although known locally, it was largely unknown to the outside world before being brought to international attention in 1911 by Hiram Bingham, an American historian. Since then, Machu Picchu has become an important tourist attraction.”

Hearing stories about Alex Chionett’s investigations of a lost city of Peru, which is not found on any map, and is haunted, Josh and the DT team set out to investigate the reports. This “haunted lost city”, sits more that two miles high in the Peruvian's Andes mountains. The story is told that the residence of this lost city buried their gold in tunnels under the city to hide their riches from the invading Spanish army before disappearing. Now, about hundred years later, local farmers have reported seeing moving figures and chimes of a phantom bell tower as if the city was still there. The South American explorer, Alex Chionetti, had to turn back before reaching the summit of this ancient city while investigating alone. Josh plans to pick up the investigation where he left off.

They flew over 4,000 miles from Los Angeles to the City of Lima, Peru. After gathering their gear, they headed out to get in touch with Alex Chionetti at the monastery where he was comparing his field notes to the record of history buried in the library. He told Josh that the farmers living below the city were terrified because they see figures of light and hear lots of eerie sounds. There are stories about the many tunnels that hold treasure and hundreds of skeletons. He continues to tell Josh that the roads in that area have been abandoned for hundreds of years and he and his team will be the first film crew to go up there and investigate the area. Starting in Lima, Peru, they will drive several hundred miles into the Andes and hope to make it to the tiny village below, the last inhabited village before the ruins. The dirt roads leading up were very dangerous, steep, and muddy with foggy weather. They finally reach the tiny town, sliding their jeep to a halt. They talk to some of the residence that feel they are living in the shadow of a haunted city. Always at night they report hearing voices, and tell Josh that they see ghosts. It will be at least a full day’s hike to reach the ruins so they decided to start fresh in the morning.

Getting an early start the next morning, they set out on a long hike of more than 3,000 feet into the clouds. They hike was grueling so they decided to try using donkeys. Before taking off the donkeys became spooked. Finally they were able to continue on up the steep, slippery, dangerous terrain. Gabe's donkey got spooked and dumped him off. After that, the locals would go no further so they headed off on foot by themselves. Winded and very tired, they got to the top and set up base camp. They set up cameras around base camp while Josh and Jael set out to explore the area. Using the Flir camera, Josh gets a hit hidden in some trees. Josh plans to hike down to where he saw the heat signature, when they all hear a strange noise. It sounded like a howling and they thought that it could be some sort of animal. They hear it again and this time it sounded like crying or howling. Josh and Jael get to the location where the heat signature was and see nothing. They did hear movement in the bushes and Josh's foot falls into a hole where a tunnel is located. They find more tunnels and have Rex bring a camera to put down into the space to see what is down there. Next they do an EVP session to see if anything or anyone unseen was with them. Back at base camp, Sharra notices some flash in front of one of the infrared camera set out in the perimeter. After checking in at base camp, Josh, Jael and Mike head out again. They come across the ruins of the old bell tower. They break out the parabolic dish to hopefully pick up the phantom bell ringing or another sound. They do capture a strange sound and also got a feeling like someone was up there with them.

Back at Los Angeles, they analyze the noises but the evidence was inconclusive. They did pick up a strange noise in the tunnels from the EVP session, an apparent voice saying, "touch him". For the rest of the evidence, they turn to Steve and Tango to get their opinion. Steve wasn't sure what the thermal hit could have been, there was all kinds of possibilities. The flash on the infrared camera could be some sort of energy passing by the camera.

SECOND INVESTIGATION: THUNDERBIRD, MANOKOTAK, ALASKA This creature, the Thunderbird, is massive, dark brown in color, enormous beak, sharp claws, and a wing span of nearly 30 feet. The journey begins north to the frigid weather of Anchorage, Alaska. While waiting for their connecting flight, some locals were telling their stories of the Thunderbird. They tell them that the temperature has been 20 degrees to below 35 at night. They then boarded their flight from Anchorage to Dillingham, an isolated town that can not be reached by road. It was whiteout conditions when they arrived there. Josh talk to a local pilot, who told them that what he saw was no ordinary bird, it was much different. In order for them to get a sweep of the area, they took an airplane up to check it out. They chartered a 1961 classic plane, and scouted out the area where they spotted the tiny town of Manokotak. This was the town where most of the sightings have been reported. Back on the ground in Dillingham, they geared up for the long trek to Manokotak. Josh wants to look for eyewitness to help them target the best investigation sight. Using a fleet of snowmobiles and local guides, they head off in the below freezing weather to Manokotak, a.k.a. Thunderbird country. On the way, Bicha flips his snowmobile but is ok. The yuk’ip natives fed the crew some local cuisine, and moose fat. Then they hooked up with Timmy Evon, an Alaskan pilot who spotted the Thunderbird very close to where they were. He directed them to the exact location where he saw the creature. They found the area and set up base camp.

Rex tells them to watch out for the wolves and to back away from them if spotted. The temperature was dropping while Josh and Jael head out to put one of the trap cameras with bait underneath. Afterwards they head out in the negative weather. Gabe and Bicha heard a boom sound while sitting at base camp. While investigating the sound, they experience twigs breaking above them and suddenly hear a sound like something buzzed over them. Josh and Jael head back to base camp to see what was happening. After reloading the cameras with new batteries, they head out again. Using the Flir and parabolic dish, they begin to hear noises above them. They hear something moving around and Josh gets a thermal hit on the ground. Fearing that it could be a wolf, they back away and head to base camp. On a computer at base camp, one of the cameras caught something strange flying in the area. Josh and Bicha do another sweep of the area and see something flying between two trees. It was a black object but hard to make out. They also noticed that the bait was gone around the trap camera leaving no prints almost like a bird swooped down and grabbed it. They did see claw marks in the snow and took pictures of the area. The trap camera took several pictures as well.

Back at Los Angeles, they take a look at all the photos that the trap camera snapped off. They did catch on the infrared camera something large buzzing through the trees. Wanting an expert opinion, Josh took the evidence to Mike Dees for his analysis of their findings. The footing of the object flying between the trees proved inconclusive and the photos taken by the trap camera showed the image too close to see what it really was. He said that is can be feathers in the photos and that a massive sea eagle could have migrated there. This could be what the locals are seeing and not the elusive Thunderbird.

~Julie~

Thoughts on the Phillies

October 2009
As the last out was recorded in last night's game and the Phillies sprinted out on the field to celebrate. I couldn't help but think how impressive it was that the Phillies made it back to the World Series. No one should be surprised by the Phillies' success because just last year, the Phillies won the World Series.

But there's something very different about last year and this year.

Last year, everything seemed to go right for the Phillies. The Mets collapsed (again). Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley put together huge seasons. Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth gave the Phillies much needed right handed pop. Shane Victorino gave the Phillies a swagger. Cole Hamels developed into an ace. JC Romero continued his dominance out of the bullpen. And closer Brad Lidge was perfect.

But this year, so much has gone wrong for the Phillies:

-Brad Lidge was terrible ($11.5 million)
-JC Romero was suspended and hurt ($4 million)
-Brett Myers was hurt ($12 million)
-Jimmy Rollins struggled at the plate ($7.5 million)
-Jaime Moyer proved that he too can age ($6.5 million)
-Cole Hamels was not his dominant self ($4.35 million)

For those of you counting at home, that's roughly $45 million dollars worth of the Phillies 2009 payroll. That's almost 40% of the total payroll. All of those guys either struggled, were not effective, or injured. Think about how devastating the manifestation of all those struggling, ineffective players should have been on the Phillies.

But the Phillies won anyway.

How'd they do it? Shrewdness, that's how. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. made some quality trades (Cliff Lee!), summoned J.A Happ from the minors, and was not afraid to see what Pedro Martinez had left in the tank.

I'd argue that the Phillies making it this far with all the stuff they had to deal with along the way is far more impressive than what the team accomplished last season.


Thoughts?

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Do the Angels Need to Re-Sign John Lackey?

October 2009
Should the Angels now look to retain John Lackey? Maybe:
The consensus of most baseball people I've talked to is that Game 5 of the ALCS could be John Lackey's last as an Angel, barring an unlikely three-win comeback against the Yankees, of course.

As the most appealing pitcher in the free-agent market, Lackey will be heavily pursued by a number of teams, and although the Angels would like to keep him, the feeling is they won't pay the expected $75 million to $100 million over five years that his agent is likely to ask.

After what has happened in the postseason, however, you wonder if Arte Moreno should reconsider his stance.

The acquisition of Scott Kazmir was supposed to give Moreno the leverage to let Lackey go. But considering the disappointing way Kazmir has pitched in his two playoff appearances, you can't help but question if that's still the case.

One writer described the Angels' staff heading into the postseason as four No. 2 starters. I don't agree with that. When he's sound, Lackey, who was brilliant in Game 1 of he ALDS, is a No. 1 starter. It's just that he's not quite at the same elite level as the CC Sabathias, Cliff Lees and Roy Halladays.
I'm torn on this one. The Angels need a true ace in the worst way if they are going to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees next year. Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana have ace like stuff, but neither guy is an ace. Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver are nice pitchers to have on a staff, but neither of them is an ace. Outside of Lackey, Weaver is probably the closest thing the Angels have right now to an ace.

If the 2010 Angels are led by those four pitchers, then they can very well win the AL West. But does anyone honestly think they would have a realistic shot to win the World Series? I don't.

The problem for the Angels is that Lackey is the only bonafide ace on the market, which means competition will be fierce and the price tag will be steep. Are the Angels willing to go out of their comfort zone and give Lackey the gigantic contract he's looking for? I don't think so, but if GM Tony Reagins is concerned enough about his rotation, then all bets are off. I think the Angels would be better off exploring the option of Roy Halladay instead of ponying up for Lackey, but only time will tell.

Thoughts?

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Baltimore Orioles Wallpapers

October 2009
Baltimore Orioles
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Chicago White Sox Wallpaper

October 2009
Chicago White Sox
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Detroit Tigers Wallpaper

October 2009
Detroit Tigers
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Los Angeles Angels Wallpaper

October 2009
Los Angeles Angels
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New York Yankees Wallpaper

October 2009
New York Yankees
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Texas Rangers Wallpaper

October 2009
Texas Rangers
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Tampa Bay Rays Wallpaper

October 2009
Tampa Bay Rays
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Toronto Blue Jays Wallpaper

October 2009
Toronto Blue Jays
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Boston Red Sox Wallpaper

October 2009
Boston Red Sox
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Cleveland Indians Wallpaper

October 2009
Cleveland Indians
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Kansas City Royals Wallpaper

October 2009
Kansas City Royals
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