2011 Fantasy Baseball: September 2009

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Randy Wolf

September 2009

As the Dodgers look forward towards the NLDS in a few weeks, there's little doubt about which pitcher will start Game 1: Randy Wolf. When the Dodgers signed Wolf last offseason, they envisioned Wolf becoming a solid backend of the rotation starting pitcher, who could throw some quality innings and take some of the pressure of the Dodgers' young pitchers. But as we've seen this season, Wolf has been much more than that for the Dodgers.

How will Wolf's stellar 2009 campaign help him on the free agent market? Let's have a look:

The Case for Randy Wolf

-Amazing 2009

I knew that Randy Wolf was having a very good 2009 season, but I had no idea just how good he was pitching this season until I looked at the numbers. Check it out:

6th in WHIP: 1.084
14th in ERA: 3.22
1st in BABIP: .256
2nd in quality starts: 24
7th in quality start %: 73%
11 wins (but Wolf should have closer to 17-18 if he could get some run support!)

The Case against Randy Wolf

-National League West

If you look at Wolf's splits from this season, you'll see a specific trend: Wolf dominates the NL West. Just look at his ERA this season against NL West foes:

Padres: 3.04
Diamondbacks: 3.71
Rockies: 2.79
Giants: 1.35

Those numbers make me believe that Wolf needs to stay in the weak NL West if he wants to maintain this level of success and question how he'd perform in a stronger division facing better offensive teams 10+ times each season.

-Is Randy Wolf THIS good?

Just throwing it out there. Randy Wolf has not had a season with a sub 4 ERA in any season since 2002. Does that mean anything? Maybe not. Wolf had a very good half season with the Astros and followed up on that success this season with the Dodgers.

But given his history, the odds are that Randy Wolf is a lot closer to the pitcher with a 4+ ERA than the pitcher with a sub 4 ERA.

Competition

Wolf's age makes him less appealing than Joel Pineiro, but his consistency and stellar 2009 campaign, you have to put him ahead of guys like Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis.

Elias Ranking: Type A

There is no doubt in my mind that the Dodgers will offer Wolf arbitration because of his solid 2009 performance and his relatively low 2009 salary ($5 million). I'm sire the Dodgers would be happy to have Wolf back for around $8-$10 million next season and if he doesn't return, then the Dodgers will get two draft picks as compensation.

Food for thought: will teams shy away from Wolf if the Dodgers offer him arbitration?

Prediction
(3 years/$31.5 million)

According to fangraphs, Wolf has been worth $14 million this season. Now there's no way Wolf is going to get that on the open market, but can Wolf get $10+ million per year on the open market? If the scenarios play out properly, then I could see it happening.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Doug Davis

September 2009

Detroit Tigers: One of the Best Teams Money Could Buy?

September 2009

Are the Tigers one of the 10 best teams that money could buy? Jon Heyman think so:

10T. Detroit Tigers, $119 million. They've got a few high salaries (Magglio Ordonez at $18.9 million, for example), but they also have a formidable team. As evidenced by their liberal draft strategy, they are always willing to pay for untested talent. Rick Porcello's a great deal, even with him being close to the highest-paid rookie ever ($2.1 million).

It's amazing to me that the Tigers are in contention this season with the amount of high priced, under performing/possibly useless parts they have on their roster right now. Take a look:

Jeremy Bonderman (injured): $12.5 million
Nate Robertson: $7 million (worth $0 million this season according to fangraphs)
Dontrelle Willis (injured??): $10 million
Aubrey Huff: $2 million (worth -$2.7 million this season according to fangraphs)

That's $31.5 million right there. And that's not even taking into account two of the more controversial players on the Tigers' roster right now:

Magglio Ordonez: $18 million
Carlos Guillen: $10 million

A case can be made that both of these guys are egregiously overpaid.

Ordonez had a terrible first half of the season and there was even chatter that the Tigers were going to bench the slugger, but luckily for him (and the Tigers), Ordonez has turned it on in the second half and now resembles a half decent ballplayer even if his power is non existent.

Guillen is another story. He has missed lots of time this season because of injuries and has only played in 74 games. During that time, Guillen has only hit .258 with 11 HR and 48 RBI. Fangraphs says that Guillen has only been worth $3.4 million this season, which is a far cry from the double digit total he's currently earning.

So if you want to say that the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy, so be it. But that statement makes little sense. The Tigers have at least $31.5 million this season committed to players, who are either injured or performing very, very badly. In addition, they have another $18 million committed to two stars, who are not coming close to performing like stars.

All together, the total amount of under performing stars, struggling veterans, and injured players is $59.5 million.

Still think the Tigers are one of the best teams money can buy? Think again.

Thoughts?

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Valuing Joel Pineiro

September 2009

What kind of contract will Joel Pineiro get on the open market? The great Jon Heyman took a stab at that very question yesterday with this prediction:

"Pineiro, two years, $15 million."

This prediction is interesting to me because it's far lower than my prediction for Pineiro a week back of 4 years/$40 million. Either I really like Pineiro or Heyman really dislikes Pineiro. Or maybe the market just sucks.

But nevertheless, here's my reasoning for the 4 years/$40 million prediction:

1. he's young (just turned 31)

2. fantastic 2009 season

Does anyone realize just how good Pineiro has been this season? According to fangraphs:

-Pineiro has been worth $23.8 million this year
-5.3 WAR
-1st in BB/9 (1.1)
-1st in HR/9 (.3)
-1st in ground ball % (61.4%)
-3rd in line drive % (15.6%)
-9th in WHIP (1.13)
-15 wins

3. Pineiro is one of the best free agent pitchers on the market.

Seriously. Here is my top five:

1. John Lackey
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Randy Wolf
4. Rich Harden
5. Jason Marquis

It's hard to argue that Pineiro is not the second best pitcher on the market right now. He's one of the youngest quality free agent pitchers on the market and is coming off a season where he dominated the National League.

I know Pineiro's history isn't the greatest, but can anyone honestly see teams letting Pineiro get away signing a 2 year/$15 million dollar contract? I doubt it. If the market falls to the point where Pineiro is settling on 2 years/$15 million, then the other free agents in this class are going to have a very rough time.

Thoughts? What kind of deal will Pineiro receive?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Russell Branyan

September 2009

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen thier value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Russell Branyan.)

Initial Prediction: (2 years/$15 million)

When I posted my original piece about Branyan on August 7th, Russell Branyan was on pace to put up some of the best power numbers of any hitter in the AL this season. After struggling for so many years, Branyan broke out in 2009 by hitting .260-24 HR-61 RBI-.361 OBP. Branyan had a legitimate chance to hit 40 home runs if he stayed healthy and productive through the end of September.

******** *********

New Prediction: (2 years/$10 million)

What Changed: Well, Branyan was unable to stay healthy and productive. In the second half of the season, Branyan hit just .193 with 9 HR and 27 RBI. To make matters worse, Branyan has been out since August 29th because of a herniated disk and it's doubtful that Branyan will play again this season. The second half raised lots of questions about Branyan: was the first half of the season just a fluke? Or was his second half so poor because he was injured?

Branyan still finished out the year with an impressive 31 home runs, but those questions coupled with his age and performance history, make me doubt that any team will give him $7 million per.

Thoughts?

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Luis Castillo Isn't This Bad, Right?

September 2009

This little nugget in the most recent Heyman column caught my eye:

"Luis Castillo ($6.25 million) can hit for average and reach base, but this is a $1 million player, at best."

Just for the record Jon, fangraphs states that Castillo was worth $7.7 million dollars this season, which is essence would make him unpaid....but I digress....

Look, I hate Castillo's defense as much as the next guy and yes, we all know that Luis Castillo cannot hit for power. These limitations are painfully obvious. And again, we all know that Luis Castillo performance was embarrassing last year....to the point where he was benched for Ramon Martinez! But saying that Castillo is only a $1 million dollar player is wrong.

The reality is that Luis Castillo can STILL bring a lot to the table and be a productive force at the top of the lineup. Just take a look at some of his stats from this season:

-.311 batting average
- 76 runs scored
-.397 OBP
-68/55 strikeout to walk ratio

I believe in Luis Castillo. I believe that if the Mets lineup was completely in tact this year, than Castillo would have scored over 100 runs and would have been hailed as one of the dynamic catalysts for the Mets offense. However, the Mets offense has been absolutely brutal this year and unfortunately for a guy like Castillo, in order for him to get any significant credit for his performance, then the rest of the guys around him have to be healthy and productive at the dish.

But because the other key guys were all out for long periods of time this season (Delgado, Reyes, Beltran), Castillo's productive season doesn't look quite that good and as a result, people think that he's still one of the biggest busts in baseball. (I'll admit, the drop at Yankee Stadium sure didn't help)

Luis Castillo is not worth $6.25 million dollars or $1 million dollars. The truth is that his value lies somewhere in between those two numbers, probably at a range of $3-$4 million. So yeah, Luis Castillo is a little overpaid by those standards, but by no means is he THAT overpaid. If Castillo was a FA, would teams shell out $6 million+ for him? No. But at the same time, should the Mets be kicking themselves for signing Castillo for $6 million a year....no.

Not right now, at least. The Mets have bigger fish to fry moving forward.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Jason Marquis

September 2009

After the 2006 season ended, the future of Jason Marquis seemed to be very much in doubt. Marquis was coming off the worst season of his career where he posted an embarrassing 6.02 for the Cardinals and even led the league in home runs allowed and earned runs allowed.

Luckily for Marquis, he became a free agent at the perfect time. Teams were desperate for pitching and the Cubs decided to take a chance on Marquis. A very expensive chance. The Cubs signed Marquis to a 3 year/$24 million dollar contract that baffled most of the baseball world.

For the first two years of that contract, Marquis was nothing more than a mediocre starting pitcher. But this year with the Rockies has been Marquis best performance since 2004.

The Case for Jason Marquis

-Ground Balls

A big reason why Jason Marquis has been so successful in Colorado this season is because of his incredible ground ball percentage. According to fangraphs, Marquis is third in all of baseball in ground ball percentage (55.2%). That stat alone tells you that Marquis can pitch effectively in a bandbox.

-Home Runs

Good luck hitting a home run against Jason Marquis. Sure, he's no Joel Pineiro (.31 HR/9), but Marquis has been incredible at keeping the ball in the ballpark this season despite pitching in Colorado. Marquis .66 HR/9 ratio puts him in the top 20 in baseball this season, which is an impressive feat with or without the humidor.

-Dependable!

Quality innings v. Quality innings? Who cares! In 5 of the past 6 seasons, Marquis has thrown at least 190 innings. Odds are high that when that fifth day rolls around, Marquis will be there to take the ball.

The Case against Jason Marquis

-Fluke?

In the three seasons prior to this one, Marquis put up the following ERAs:

2006-6.02
2007-4.60
2008-4.53

While I don't think Marquis is as bad as his 6.02 ERA in 2006 suggests, is he really as good as his 3.98 ERA in 2009 suggests? Or is this just a fluke season at the right time for Marquis?

-September

For the first four months of the season, there weren't many pitchers in baseball that were more consistent than Jason Marquis. However, in the month of September, Marquis has been terrible. His September ERA currently sits at 6.28, which is odd considering his strikeout rate is actually up this month. Nevertheless, Marquis has come back down to Earth in a big way.

Competition

I would say that Marquis is a notch or two below Joel Pineiro at this point, but can he compete with Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Rich Harden, Braden Looper, and Jon Garland? I think so. And in many respects, you can make the case that Marquis is better than most of those guys.

Elias Ranking: Type B

After making almost $10 million this season, it's hard to see the Rockies offering Marquis arbitration. It's easy to see why they'd like to keep Marquis, but I have a tough time believing that the Rockies can afford to spend $12-$14 million+ on a above average pitcher.

Prediction
(3 years/$24 million)

I have to give Marquis the Adam Eaton kiss of death contract here: 3 years/$24 million. It's funny because those two pitchers have so much in common stylistically, but so little in common right now. A few months back, maybe Marquis is able to crack the $10+ million per year mark, but after his rough September, I think this amount is fair.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent Adjustments: Jim Thome

September 2009

Arizona's Mysterious Painted Rocks

September 2009

These mysterious petroglyphs are found on many rocks all over the state of Arizona. Most of the petroglyphs were created by Southern Sinagua inhabitants between about 1150 and 1400 AD. The V-bar-V petroglyph site is the largest known petroglyph site and is located in Sedona, Arizona. The rock site consists of 1,032 petroglyphs in 13 panels and is protected and kept open to the public. What an interesting way of communication before newspapers, books and computers.

Hypothetically Speaking: The Justin Verlander Contract Extension?

September 2009

After a strangely inconsistent 2008, Justin Verlander has regained his form and established himself as one of the top pitchers in baseball. In the much tougher American League, Verlander has put together a tremendous, and at times dominant, season. He is 17-9 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and most impressive of all: 256 K in 217 IP.

Verlander has become the ace that everyone thought he'd become. I'd like to tell you that I'm surprised, but Verlander's stuff is so good that I expected him to become an true ace.

However, Verlander's contract situation is an issue that the Tigers will have to address sooner rather than later. Verlander has two years of arbitration left after this season and will become a free agent after the 2012 season. He is due a big raise from the $3.675 million that he earned this season because his performance has been so good.

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the Tigers approach Verlander about a possible contract extension. Sure their attendance is down and the team lacks significant payroll flexibility this offseason (thanks Dontrelle, Nate Robertson, Bonderman, and Magglio), but GM Dave Dombrowski understands just how important Verlander is to this franchise and wants to avoid the hassle of arbitration and lock up his ace.

Now that we've established that, what kind of contract (years and dollars) do you think would be fair here?

My guess: 4 years/$60 million
Here's why it works for the Tigers:
1. Tigers buy out Verlander's two years of arbitration (yay!)
2. Tigers buy out two years of Verlander's free agency and keep him until at least 2012
3. Verlander will easily get $7-$8 million in 2010 after arbitration...this deal would only increase the Tigers 2010 payroll by $7 million (roughly), which would leave plenty of room for the front office to address the Tigers' other issues.

Here's why it works for Verlander:
1. He would be paid in the same range as many other top starting pitchers
2. Huge raise in 2010....this deal would probably pay him more than he would have earned in arbitration in 2011.
3. He doesn't have to wait to get a huge raise
4. Verlander can still become a free agent after 2013, when he'll be just 30.

Thoughts?

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DT: Swamp Ape

September 2009

SECOND INVESTIGATION: "SWAMP APE"
In south Florida, throughout Everglades National Park and 10,000 Island's area, a stinky hair ape man is stalking the area. Also spotted in the Cypress National Preserve, this "Skunk Ape" as they call it because of the horrible smell it admits, blends in with its surroundings, is said to be 8 feet high with a large dome head and prominent brow, and massive chest. They flew to Fort Lauderdale, Florida where Josh could miss the opportunity to harass Jael about reading the "Twilight" series of books. After getting their vehicle, they headed due west from Fort Lauderdale to the Cypress National Preserve. This area is over a million acres of swamp and uninhabitable by humans, with roads not existing in the interior. Along the way they stopped at the "official" Florida research center. This place had everything you ever wanted on the Skunk Ape and even a large python that seems to roam the place freely, yikes! They head off to meet with Dave Shealy, who founded the Skunk Ape research center and had a terrifying encounter with the beast. He took Josh to the remote area where the sighting occurred. While sitting at a tree stand he noticed that about 100 yards away, a large hairy man-like creature was looking right at him. He continues to tell Josh that there are 100's of sightings and there are some people that have come up missing in the everglades through the years. He uses raw meat, such a dear liver, to attract the animal to capture its existence. They grab a meal of frog legs and alligator and make one more stop before heading out to the everglades. Radio host Ed Craft swears he saw the Swamp Monster while camping. He tells Josh that you must be willing to go where no other humans will go in order to find the Swamp Ape. This is definitely a job up the DT team’s alley.

After getting to the Big Cypress Preserve, they trade their vehicle for a Swamp Buggy to navigate through the first part of the bog. Josh stops to talk to Billy, a Centennial Indian, whose tribe members have witnessed the Skunk Ape for years. He tells Josh that just two days ago some on his tribe members during a tribal ceremony spotted the Skunk ape. Josh then arranges with Tom Shirley, the game warden, to use swamp boats to get to the location of the sightings. After 3 hours, they finally arrived in the area of the recent sightings when Josh spots something big in the woods walking around. He said that it was large and walking upright. They looked for a half an hour to see if it would appear again but found nothing but alligators. After the boats dropped them off, they headed in to find an area for their base camp. They had investigated swampy areas before and were prepared for almost anything.

After finding a good area for base camp, the set up 4 infrared cameras around the perimeter and 4 trap cameras with bait sitting in front of them. Josh was told to watch for water moccasins and panthers that are in the area. Josh and Jael head off with the thermal camera and to do a sweep of the area. Before getting the last trap camera set up, they hear something big and close in the swamps near them. They also heard lots of splashing in the water. Bicha is out putting bait near the first infrared camera and hears something walking behind them. They start experiencing big time movement all around them. Josh and Jael head back to base camp and see alligators with one heading towards them. They continue on their sweep when Jael hears something moving around them and in the water. They both hear something walking around in the brush near them. In one of the cameras at base camp they spot something moving in front of it. It looks like a panther and they warn Josh about what they saw. Meanwhile, Josh and Jael are trudging through water and see a Cottonmouth snake which is poisonous and they slowly back away. Back at base camp, they see something streak by camera 3 and then it gets knocked down. They head out to investigate and find the camera lying on the ground and the bait was gone. They then see something big in the trees in front of them and hear it moving all around them. They kept hearing branches breaking. At the same time, Josh and Jael are still walking in the swamp and this time spot an alligator and back away from it. Josh and Mike head out to where camera 3 was tipped over to see if they can capture any audio. Josh got a hit on the thermal but can't distinguish what it was. They also experienced a very loud noise like something was crashing down. They take their evidence back to Los Angeles where Josh sits down with former Los Angeles zoo curator, Mike Dee, to go over the footage. The thing caught on the thermal camera appeared to be upright in a standing position. He said that it could be a black bear, but there wasn't enough on the thermal to say for sure. He did feel that the animal caught on the base camp's camera could be a Florida Panther. It is very rare to capture a picture of this animal especially at night. Could the eyewitnesses be seeing a bear? With all the reports of seeing this Skunk Ape, the investigations are far from being over.

~Julie~

Hypothetically Speaking: The Dan Haren Contract Extension

September 2009

Last August, the Diamondbacks signed Dan Haren to a very team friendly 4 year/$44 million dollar extension that replaced the final two years of his previous contract. By all accounts, Haren was willing to take less than he might have warranted on the open market because he loved Arizona and being with the Diamondbacks.

But now as the 2009 season comes to a close, Haren's contract extension is looking like even more of a steal for the Diamondbacks. Haren, 29, is putting up the best numbers of his career with the Diamondbacks this season (14-9, 2.90 ERA, leading the NL in K/BB ratio and WHIP) and has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

So hypothetically speaking, how much larger would Haren's contract with the Diamondbacks have been if he waited until this summer to negotiate a contract extension? Instead of $44 million over 4 years, how much more could Haren have earned? $20 million? $30 million? Or even more?

Would $80 million over 6 years have been unrealistic?

My guess is no. Not only would Haren have had more leverage in negotiations (FA after 2010), but he would be coming off the best season of his career at 29 years old.

Please leave your predictions/thoughts in the comments.

Thoughts?

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DT: King Tut's Curse

September 2009

FIRST INVESTIGATION: "KING TUT'S CURSE", Egypt
For 1000's of years the mummified Kings of ancient Egypt laid hidden beneath the desert until Josh's predecessors cracked open the tombs where curses written on the walls threatened anyone that disturbed the Pharos right to rest in peace. Howard Carter first opened King Tut's tomb in 1923. Several members of his team died by years end and were the first victims of the Pharos curse. Many people after that tragic event that were curious about King Tut's tomb, also met with a tragic end. Just recently a team conducting a CT scan on King Tut was met with a rare sandstorm and complete failure of their equipment. Since then guards have seen strange lights, apparitions and heard strange voices in the Valley of the Kings. Josh was surprised when the Egyptian government granted his partition to spend the entire night investigating King Tut's tomb alone, a world wide first.

They flew more than 7,000 miles through 10 time zones, landing in Cairo, Egypt. As soon as they touched down, Josh headed over to the Egyptian museum where there is a vast amount of priceless relics. Over 4,000 of Tut's personal items have been excavated from his tomb and brought there for display. Josh was required to meet with the director of antiquities, Mustafah, to give them the keys to the tomb. He asked him if there was any truth to the curse and Mustafah said that it was something he couldn't deny. There was some kind of power but he didn't know what it was. The next morning they flew south from Cairo to the city of Luxor. This ancient capital of Egypt sits across the banks of the Nile from the Valley of the Kings. Josh meets up with Ramy, an Egyptologist, who tells him that the Valley of the Kings is essentially a graveyard with many kings buried down there. It is a very spiritual place. Josh asked if anyone ever filmed there before and he said never, they would be the first. The idea for filming there at night is very scary and would be provoking the curse. After shopping, they ate some of the local cuisine which consisted of testicles, brains and a bull penis. The next day Ramy takes Josh to meet a local guard who has seen ghost like apparitions and strange lights across the valley along with other guards. He tells Josh that he shouldn't be alone while in the Valley of the Kings because it was too dangerous. They leave Luxor, go across the Nile, through the Valley of the Kings, and then the mountain pass that leads to Tut's tomb. They use camels to get there which doesn't make Josh very happy.

INVESTIGATION: They set up base camp right outside the entrance to King Tut's tomb. Josh and Jael set out to sweep the area surrounding the tomb using the thermal imaging camera. Jael kept hearing noises near a tomb so they went to investigate. Josh catches a shadow moving on the thermal camera. After exploring the perimeter they head down to the tomb. Two of his crew was not feeling very good. Before they could go down to where the tomb was, a sudden sandstorm stops them. After the sandstorm subsides, they head down. They finally reach the body of Tut and hear noises near it. Josh gets a high EMF reading over the area where Tut was found and there was no reason for the high reading. He hears another sound down the corridor which sounds like a person. Josh and Rex chase the noise down and find that one of his crew feel down sick. After taking him back to base camp, they do the isolation in the room with Tut. Josh gets locked in first and hears all kinds of weird noises. He keeps hearing something outside the door and with everyone at base camp, he sends Mike down to corroborate his story. Mike gets locked in and hears sounds from the other side of the tomb. Mike's experiences shortness of breath and has an asthma attack. Rex heads down and they bring him back up. With his team dropping like flies they take the evidence back to Los Angeles for analysis. Mike picked up on audio Josh talking and what sounded like a voice saying "out". Also while Josh was alone, they picked up the sounds of footsteps on audio. The trap camera mounted in the tomb caught in one picture a translucent white light on the corner of the photo.

The second investigation on the "Skunk Ape" will be posted later today.

~Julie~

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Doug Davis

September 2009

I'm a huge fan of Doug Davis. There is no way that Davis should be considered an ace or even a front line starting pitcher because his stuff is simply not that dominant. However, Davis is your classic middle of the rotation starter, who gets the job done and is about as consistent as they come. While Davis might not be the first choice for many teams, he's exactly the kind of pitcher that so many teams need.

How will Davis' limitations and consistency play out on the open market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Doug Davis

-quality

I know the quality start is not the best judge of a pitcher's performance, but what Doug Davis has done over the years is pretty amazing.

2009: 21 quality starts, 66%
2008: 14 quality starts, 54% (injured)
2007: 19 quality starts, 58%
2006: 16 quality starts, 47%
2005: 23 quality starts, 66%
2004: 24 quality starts, 71%

As much as I like Doug Davis, I never actually realized how consistent he has been over the past six years. That's the kind of consistency that so many teams would love to have at the back end of their rotation.

-Consistent

In five of the past six seasons, Doug Davis has recorded at least 30 starts with the lone exception being 2008 when Davis had to take time off to deal with thyroid cancer. Teams will pay for that kind of consistency.

The Case against Doug Davis

-WHIP

One negative about Davis is that he puts lots of runners on base. His lifetime WHIP sits at 1.491 while his 2009 WHIP is 1.495, which puts him 45th in the National League this season.

-Walks

Doug Davis is not known as a control pitcher, but it has to be concerning to see that Davis currently leads the NL in walks (96).

Competition

The market for quality left handed starting pitchers this offseason is quite weak.

-Jarrod Washburn? Old and injured.
-Erik Bedard? Injury prone.
-Randy Johnson? Old and injured.
-Andy Pettitte? Does anyone really think he'll hit the open market?

So pretty much by default, Doug Davis has become one of the premier left handed starting pitchers on the open market (other than Randy Wolf).

Elias Ranking: Type B

I don't think there is enough upside here for the Diamondbacks to offer Davis arbitration. Davis earned $8.75 million and if he accepts arbitration, then he will definitely be looking for a nice raise. Davis is a nice player, but he is certainly not worth $11-$13 million that the Diamondbacks would have to pay him. Also, since Davis is a type B FA, the Diamondbacks wouldn't even get two high draft picks for offering him arbitration.

Prediction
(3 years/$21 million)

Doug Davis is going to surprise some people on the open market. He's a guy that's been overlooked for a majority of his career, but I'm confident when I say that Davis will get paid this offseason. According to fangraphs, Davis has been worth $7.7 million this season, but in the five year previous, Davis was worth between $9-$14 million dollars. My guess is that his price range falls much closer to $9 million than $14 million.

Thoughts?

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2009 Mets: A Blessing In Disguise?

September 2009

When I think about how baldy the Mets 2009 season has been, I cringe. I can't help but think what could've been, even though I know that this season was doomed from the start. This team was not well constructed and the rash of injuries, no matter how severe they were, highlighted the Mets' shortcomings.

And yes, there were many problems with the Mets that we could focus on today:

-the Mets lack of depth
-inability to produce quality players in the minors, who could step in right away
-dependency on old players
-inability to find proper players to supplement the Mets' core
-all those injuries!

But as the Mets move forward, there's one problem are in particular that the Mets need to address before the 2010 season: the starting pitching. And for the first time in years, I'm actually confident that the Mets will make a move to acquire another top flight starting pitcher.

Why do I think this? Well, because the 2009 season left the Mets with more questions than answers regarding the guys that they currently have after Johan Santana. Each one of these guys was given the chance to step up and be the Mets #2 starter, but no one did.

-Mike Pelfrey: Came into the 2009 season as the Mets #2 starter....5.08 ERA this year...can he become the pitcher everyone expects him to be?....HUGE STEP BACK

-Oliver Perez: Came into the 2009 season as the Mets best left handed starting pitcher not named Johan Santana....6.82 ERA this year...dealt with a variety of injuries...INCONSISTENT

-John Maine: Came into the 2009 season as one of the Mets top starting pitchers...4.13 ERA this year, but dealt with a number of injuries and missed significant time...throws too many pitches and almost never lasts more than 5 or 6 innings

Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine were supposed to anchor the rotation after Johan Santana, but none of those guys showed anything this season for me to believe that the Mets should trust any of them to be the #2 starter. That realization could be a blessing in disguise for the Mets.

Think about it: if the Mets go into the offseason with the mindset that Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine are nothing more than 3, 4, and 5 starters; then there should be a very realistic chance that the Mets make a huge run at a big name pitcher. It comes down to being realistic: the Mets can longer depend on any of these three to be the guy behind Johan Santana in 2010. None of them has proven it consistently in the big leagues.

Having another top flight starter to pair with Johan Santana would help jump start the Mets from 2009's laughing stock to contenders in 2010. And who knows, maybe Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez finally make the leap in 2010 and become the pitchers that baseball people think they could be. But the 2009 season has made it very clear, the Mets cannot afford to not go after a top flight starter this offseason.

And for Mets fans everywhere, this is a good thing.

Thoughts?

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Free Agent at the End of the Season: Erik Bedard

September 2009

The fall has been quite steep for Erik Bedard. When Bedard arrived in Seattle two years ago, he was hailed as the Mariners newest ace and the guy, who would team with Felix Hernandez to give the Mariners one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. The Mariners were willing to give up Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill for Bedard even though they knew that Bedard was going to be a free agent after the 2009 season.

But now as Bedard plans to explore the free agent market for the first time, he will not be greeted by the lavish multi year contracts that the best pitchers are met with. And the reality is this: when Bedard is actually playing, he IS one of the best pitchers in baseball. But unfortunately for Bedard, the past two seasons have been riddled with injuries and as a result, he is too much of a liability right now for teams to commit to him long term.

What will the market hold for Bedard? Let's take a look:

The Case for Bedard

-Quality left handed starting pitcher

When Bedard is actually on the field, he's one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball. In 15 starts this season, Bedard struck out 90 in 83 innings, had a tremendous 2.82 ERA, and produced a 1.19 WHIP. In addition, who wouldn't want a starting pitcher with a K/9 rate of 9.8!

In addition, since 2006 Bedard's ERA has never exceeded 4 and his over the course of his career, Batters have only hit .247 against Bedard.

The Case against Bedard

-Injuries

Can Bedard actually stay healthy? That's the big question. Bedard has only started 30 games in the past two seasons and needs to prove to teams that he can stay healthy and productive for a full season.

Good teammate?

There have been numerous stories written about Bedard over the years stating that he's a quiet guy and somewhat of a strange dude. I don't really put too much stock into this, but we'll see if Bedard's reputation effects whether or not certain teams go after him.

Competition

-Because of Bedard's injury history over the past two seasons, there is no way that he should garner anything more than a one year deal with incentives. As a result, Bedard will be competing on the market with other pitchers with a history of injuries and performing well: Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, Brett Myers, Jason Schmidt, etc.

The major advantage that Bedard has over the rest of those guys is that he's a left handed starting pitcher. In addition, I'd say that Bedard has more upside than the rest of the guys I listed.

Elias Ranking: Type B

-There's no way that the Mariners will offer Bedard arbitration. Bedard earned $7.75 million in 2009 and there would simply be too much risk in paying Bedard that much money when you take his injury history into account.

Prediction
(1 year/$7 million) with incentives

Here are some comparable contracts:
Brad Penny (1 year/$5 million)
Jon Garland (1 year/$7 million)
John Smoltz (1 year/$5.5 million)

Thoughts?

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What the Hell Were You Thinking? Milton Bradley Edition

September 2009

I'm sure there are a large and very vocal majority of Cubs fans that are trying to figure out how exactly the Cubs gave $30 million bucks to Milton Bradley. Didn't they know that Bradley was a nut job? Or how about his injury history? Did Hendry really believe that Milton Bradley could fit in with the Cubs?

Well, after some archive digging, I think whatever rationale the Cubs had at the time, no matter how illogical or stupid it looks now, will come to light.

Why Sign Bradley: So much has been made that the Cubs signed Bradley because he led the AL in OPS in 2008 and the Cubs needed help from the left side of the dish. All of that is true. A healthy and productive Bradley would have made the Cubs 2009 lineup one of the best in baseball on paper.

But what so many people are forgetting about Bradley is that the Cubs really thought that Bradley was a changed man and would fit in very well in Chicago. Take a look at some of these quotes:

cubs.com: (January 8, 2009):"As we left the restaurant and stood on the curb waiting for the driver ... [Bradley] said, 'I know it's going to take some time and you have some work to do, but I want to be a Chicago Cub if you want me,'" Hendry said.

"I knew when I left that restaurant that night that he was our guy."

cubs.com: (January 8, 2009): "The opinion that he wouldn't be a good teammate or he would be a disruption in the clubhouse couldn't be further from the truth," Hendry said.

MLB.com (January 9, 2009): "He's at a point in his life now where I think he's got it together real good," Hendry said.

Chicago Sun Times: (April 15, 2009): ''I think the fans are going to love him, too,'' Hendry said. ''I don't know why race would ever come into it. He's no different than the rest of us. We've all made a few mistakes in our day and certainly when we were younger. But so many people he played with and played for the last couple years [spoke well of him]. I've felt very comfortable with him coming in here all along.''

WIFR (January 16, 2009): Piniella brushed off any concerns about Bradley's past, and Bradley says he thinks he and Piniella will "click well."

********** **********

Hell, even Bradley himself was optimistic about finally having some long term security and playing in Chicago.

MLB.com: (February 15, 2009):"It's the Cubs -- who wouldn't want to play for the Cubs?" Bradley said. "They already have a great team in place. I'm coming in, trying to add something to that. They haven't won in 100 years. You come in and you know you have that, I guess you call it 'pressure' -- that's the media word, 'pressure' -- it's not really like that.

"I just want to be on a team that's going to win. That's all I want to do. Playing at home [stinks] if you're not winning. The Cubs, there's a good team here and we're going to win. I want to be a part of that."

Chicago Sun Times: (April 15, 2009):''I can be like that guy that you watch all the time for whatever reason,'' he said, referring to his track record of angry outbursts and run-ins. ''But I really think I've outgrown it, a lot of the stuff that I did when I was younger.''

Chicago Tribune (January 18, 2009): "I have every intention of being here a long time. This is where I wanted to be a long time. I've had it on my radar, so I have no intention of going anywhere."

Chicago Tribune (February 16, 2009): "As much as we courted him, I've never seen a player court us like he did," Cubs Chairman Crane Kenney told fans at the Cubs Convention. "He was scouting us in the third game of the division series, sitting in Los Angeles trying to figure out where he would play in our lineup, and he left himself, basically, with no escape clause.

"He was negotiating with us and really didn't have a safety net. This is a guy who chose Chicago and the pressure and the limelight. I don't think he expects to fail. He wants to be a Cub."

********* ***********

And for those Cubs fans that think the Bradley signing was some crazy idea that GM Jim Hendry just suddenly acted on, think again.

ESPN.com (January 6, 2009): General manager Jim Hendry talked to former GMs, managers and players who've associated with Bradley over the years.

"What I found out was the perception of him not being a positive in the clubhouse couldn't have been farther from the truth," Hendry said.

SI.com (March 6, 2009): Hendry was eyeing Bradley from a distance for quite a while, and Bradley was impressed by the GM's forthrightness. Hendry told him right away that he was their guy, but that he had to clear up a couple questions related to the ownership change before making an offer. Just like Hendry said, once those questions were cleared up, he called Bradley.

"Jim Hendry's an honest, fair guy," Bradley said. "You don't meet too many like that in this business. He told me it would take some time with the ownership situation but that we'd get it done. I believed him.''

Daily Herald (January 17 2009): "Speaking of assuming," Hendry began, "I think you've assumed in that question that he's not good in the clubhouse. We knew we needed a left-handed hitter by the first week of October, and if you noticed, we didn't sign Milton until the first week of January. So there was a heck of a lot of work done, a lot of information gathering, a lot of medical testing, a lot of discussion with a lot of his ex-teammates from every club, managers, general managers.

********* *************

So it seems as though the Cubs tried to do everything they could to ensure that the Milton Bradley experiment would not fail. GM Jim Hendry took his time with the process in order to get as many different opinions as possible. What's amazing to me is that everyone in the Cubs organization thought that this would work-or simply just talked themselves into saying that.

Either way, the Milton Bradley experiment in Chicago has been a huge fail.

Thoughts?

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Where's Derek Lowe?

September 2009

I'd like to have a word or two with Ted Keith. Not only did he put Ryan Dempster on the list of worst free agent contracts, but more surprisingly, he did not put Derek Lowe on his list.

How is this possible? Just look at the stats:

-Lowe is now 36 years old
-signed a 4 year/$60 million contract with the Braves last offseason
-still has another 3 years/$45 million left on the deal
-his ERA went up more than a full point this year (3.24 to 4.55)
-his WHIP is way up from 2008 (1.13 to 1.49)
-H/9 is way up this year (8.3 to 10.6)
-strikeouts are way down (99 this season)
-K/BB is way down (1.77)
-hitters are hitting .295 against him this season
-His % of ground balls is at its lowest point in over seven years (56.5%)

So as you can see, it's not hard to look at Lowe's stats and say that the 2009 season has been a major disappointment for him. But for some reason, Keith still keeps him off the list? Was it a mistake? Simply an oversight?

Who knows.

The only way I can see someone rationalizing this is by saying, "Derek Lowe has 15 wins this season so there's no way you can say that Lowe was one of the worst free agent contracts."

But as we can see from the stats, Derek Lowe's season cannot simply be defined by wins and losses. Across the board, Lowe's performance has been down this season. The wins argument is hogwash.

Thoughts?

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Ryan Dempster: One of the Worst Free Agent Signings?

September 2009

SI.com's Ted Keith recently outlined "the worst" free agent signings of the 2008 offseason, most of which were not surprising. Oliver Perez and Milton Bradley have been two of the biggest disappointments in baseball. Edgar Renteria and Pat Burrell have shown very little at the dish this season.

But there was one name that I was shocked to see in the "worst" column: Ryan Dempster.

"A career year in 2008 that included personal bests in wins, ERA and WHIP earned Dempster a sizable raise from the three-year, $15.5 million deal that expired last year. But so far he hasn't exactly justified that raise, regressing to a 10-8 mark with a 3.72 ERA. In fact, his numbers are down across the board. He's given up more hits, runs and home runs than he did a year ago, with a worse WHIP and fewer strikeouts per nine innings. He hasn't been terrible, but the Cubs were clearly expecting more this year from a pitcher who signed the fourth-highest contract of any free-agent starter last winter. With his salary increasing each of the next three years and with a $14 million player option for 2012, the Cubs can only hope that Dempster will soon resemble the pitcher who earned that large deal in the first place."

While it's safe to say that Dempster has not been worth the big bucks the Cubs doled out to him this season, I can't help, but think that Dempster's inclusion on this list is unfair. Outside of a poor April and a injury plagued July, Dempster has been one of the Cubs' best starting pitchers this season. And while Keith notes that his numbers across the board are down, Dempster's drop has not been drastic:

WHIP: (2008: 1.21 ) (2009: 1.34)
K/9: (2008: 8.14 ) (2009: 7.54)
ERA: (2008: 2.96) (2009: 3.72)

In addition, when you factor in that Dempster's BB/9 rate has actually improved (3.31 to 3.07), and that his K/BB rate has remained the same (2.46), you get a better picture into the 2009 Ryan Dempster. Dempster is still a very, very good pitcher.

So is it safe to put Dempster on this list? I don't think so. Fangraphs even states that his performance this season was worth $13.7 million, which would actually make him underpaid (Dempster earned $8 million this year). Sure, his performance wasn't the same as it was in 2008, but the Cubs have reasons to believe that Dempster will perform better in 2010.

Thoughts?

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The Market for Joe Crede?

September 2009

Yet another tough break for free agent to be Joe Crede, who will undergo yet another back surgery this offseason:

"Crede, out for the season, said the procedure by Dr. Andrew Dossett, a Dallas orthopedist, will remove fluid from a herniated disk that is impeding on a nerve. Crede expects to have the operation Friday. The date will be finalized Monday.

"It's something I have to do if I want to get back out there," Crede said before Sunday's game against Detroit.

Recovery time is about two months.

The 31-year-old Crede has had two major operations in the past two years, the last in October. He played in only 144 games with 502 at-bats from 2007-08."

At this stage in his career, he's a risk because of his back issues and cannot be counted on to be a starting third baseman. In addition, even though Crede was an all-star in 2007, you can certainly say that Crede has not put together a quality season at the dish since 2006.

You have to wonder what kind of market Crede will have this winter once he become a free agent. The market is not exactly favorable to Crede. There is a number of decent third basemen out there, who come with less question marks than Crede and have been more productive over the past three years (Figgins, Feliz, Beltre, Mora, and possibly Tejada). Crede could have a tough time finding considerable playing time in this market given the number of possible options on the open market.

I feel sorry for Joe Crede. Here was a guy who was one of the best third basemen in baseball in 2006 and was all set to cash in once he became a free agent in 2008, but because of injuries, he has not come close to achieving his full potential-both on the field and in his wallet.

Thoughts?

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The Market for Milton Bradley

September 2009

Oh, Milton. Here we go again. More drama.

And this time, it's serious. Bradley has been suspended for the remainder of the season a la Jose Guillen a few years back (minus the playoffs). Not good.

"The last few days became too much for me to tolerate," Hendry said. "I'm certainly not going to let our great fans become an excuse. I'm not going to tolerate not being able to answer questions from the media respectfully. Whether you feel like talking or not, it's part of all of our jobs.

"There's a right way to do it and a wrong way. I'm not going to allow disrespect to other people in that locker room and uniformed personnel, and I'm certainly not going to let a player, as was mentioned in the article today, (talk about) negativity of the organization."

It's become obvious that Bradley simply cannot return to the Cubs in 2010. Bradley has burned too many bridges within the organization. Change in needed for both sides. So as we look forward towards 2010, what exactly does the future hold for Bradley? Let's start by answering a few key questions.

********* ************

1. Is there any team out there that would pick up the $21 million that the Cubs still owe Bradley?

Believe it or not, this is possible. All the Cubs would have to do is take on a contract that is more egregious than Bradley's, which is not an easy thing to do. Unless the Cubs want to take on one of the worst contracts in baseball (i.e Carlos Silva, Oliver Perez), then the Cubs' best chance to trade Bradley is to accept the fact that they will have to eat some of his salary.

2. What team would be willing to acquire Milton Bradley and all the nonsense that comes with him?

Even though Bradley is crazy, I'm sure that some team would be willing to take a chance on Bradley because when he's healthy and sane, Bradley is a very productive outfielder.

With that said, Bradley's terrible behavior and below average performance with the Cubs, I'm sure there aren't too many teams out there looking to pick up Bradley.

3. What team can give Bradley the "positive environment" he's looking for?

Obviously the Milton Bradley experiment in Chicago failed miserably. Chicago and Milton Bradley just did not mix.

So where does Milton Bradley think he needs to play in 2010?

"I need a stable, healthy, enjoyable environment. There's too many people everywhere in your face with a microphone asking the same questions repeatedly. Everyone is just bashing you. You go out there and play harder than anybody on the field and never get credit for it. It's just negativity."

So Bradley wants a healthy and enjoyable environment where there aren't too many people getting all up in his business. Wonderful. In my opinion, Bradley needs to go somewhere in a small market where the bright lights simply don't exist. As we saw in Chicago, the big city and Milton Bradley don't mix well.

Now let's get to the hard part, which "small market" team would actually take a chance on Milton Bradley?

-Padres? Nope. Been there and done that.

-Pirates? Nope. Do you think a young team looking to rebuild needs Milton Bradley around?

-Orioles: Doubtful. Even though Andy McPhail is looking for someone to hit behind Nick Markakis, I just don't think the O's have room for Bradley, unless they plan to have him DH. Any once again, do you think a young team looking to rebuild needs Milton Bradley around?

-Royals? Nope. Even though I wouldn't run it past Dayton Moore to make Bradley to KC possible, he's just not a fit here at all. I must say though, a locker room consisting of Milton Bradley, Kyle Farnsworth, and Jose Guillen would be highly entertaining and probably give Trey Hillman ulcers by the end of the season.

-Diamondbacks? Hmmmm, interesting. The Diamondbacks could use another big bat in their lineup and Eric Byrnes isn't exactly the world's most productive left fielder. I'd prefer to see the Diamondbacks still with their youth movement instead of investing energy into acquiring Bradley, but the thought isn't that horrible.

-Mariners? I know, Seattle is not exactly a small market. But it's hard to ignore the face that Milton Bradley would be a decent fit with the Mariners. I'm very fearful to see how Bradley would react in Seattle, but this could be a spot for him to succeed. The Mariners could use Bradley in left field and when his various injuries act up, the Mariners could slot him in as the designated hitter. This team has struggled all year to find potent hitters in the middle of the lineup and maybe, just maybe, Bradley could give the Mariners what their looking for.

Thoughts?

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The Quirky World of Tim Burton

September 2009

When you think of a Tim Burton film, quirky and dark probably come to mind. Not only has he co-wrote and produced some blockbuster movies, he directed them as well. He has come a long way since 1985 when he directed his first feature film, Pee-wee’s Big Adventure. In many of his movies, Tim calls upon his closest friends, actor Johnny Depp, musician Danny Elfman and partner Helena Bonham Carter to be a part of his crazy but wonderful films.

Timothy William Burton was born on August 25, 1958. It was in 1982 that he made a black and white stop motion film he named “Vincent”. This film was based on a poem that Tim wrote about a young boy who fantasizes about being Vincent Price. Price was Tim’s screen idol and even narrated the film for him. Tim’s girlfriend was an executive at Disney where he took up an office during production on the film. After that the two of them co-wrote a screenplay called “True Love” which was shown at the Chicago Film Festival. When the relationship ended, Tim did a series of live-action short stories such as Hansel and Gretel and Frankenweenie. Even though Tim’s work was not seen by many, he was attracting the attention of the film industry.

Tim’s marriage to a German-born artist only lasted four year until he left her for a model named Lisa Marie. She appeared in a couple of his movies, Ed Wood and Mars Attacks. They were engaged from 1992 to 2001 until he left her for Helena Bonham Carter. He met Helena on the set of Planet of the Apes. They have a son, Billy and a daughter, Nell and have homes in Los Angeles and London. Johnny Depp is their son Billy’s godfather. Johnny once said on his friend Tim Burton: "What more can I say about him? He is a brother, a friend, my godson's father. He is a unique and brave soul, someone that I would go to the ends of the earth for, and I know, full and well, he would do the same for me."

After seeing Tim Burton’s short film Frankenweenie, Paul Reubens asked Tim to direct his feature film “Pee-wee’s Big Adventure”. So, in 1985 and on a budget of $7 million dollars and asking songwriter Danny Elfman to write the music for the film, Pee-wee’s movie was made. The movie ended up grossing over $40 million at the box office. In 1988, he directed Michael Keaton, Alec Baldwin and Geena Davis in a horror/comedy called, “Beetlejuice”. Working on another low budget film, it went on to gross over $80 million. In 1989, Tim received his first big budget film, “Batman” but had butt heads with the producers over the leading man. Tim wanted Michael Keaton, who worked with him in Beetlejuice, to play the masked hero and they were against it. Causing discouragement in some fans by casting Keaton, he cast Jack Nicholson as the Joker hoping to assure them that this movie and its actors were going to be great. It was and ended up grossing over $400 million worldwide.

Tim went on to be very successful in the 1990’s as well. He started out the decade with a quirky movie called, “Edward Scissorhands” starring his friend Johnny Depp. This would be the first of many films Depp would appear in or voice for Burton. Tim also cast Vincent Price, his idol, to be a part of the movie and played the eccentric inventor. Sadly this was the last appearance on screen for Price before his death. Tim would go on to produce and direct many other blockbusters such as Batman Returns, Nightmare before Christmas, Cabin Boy, Ed Wood, Batman Forever, James and the Giant Peach, Mars Attacks, and Sleepy Hollow.

In the 2000’s, Tim Burton’s films continue to reign at the top of the box office. He started the decade and century with Planet of the Apes starring Mark Walburg and Helena Bonham Carter. This film is where he met Helena, who later became his partner. His other movies consisted of Big Fish, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Corpse Bride, Sweeny Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street and a short film simply called 9.

His next film Alice in Wonderland is due for release March 10, 2010.

~Julie~

Free Agent at the End of the Season: Joel Pineiro

September 2009

It's a good time to be Joel Pineiro. After muddling around in the land of mediocrity for the past five years, Pineiro's 2009 season has been a revelation. Seemingly out of nowhere, Pineiro has catapulted himself from an average starting pitcher to the productive and sometimes dominant starter that so many envisioned him becoming when he began his career in Seattle.

And Pineiro's timing could not have been better. He will be a free agent after the season and has put himself in a prime position for the big money that comes with free agency.

How will Pineiro's fantastic 2009 season help him on the open market? Let's take a look:

The Case for Pineiro

-The New Joel Pineiro

Pineiro's stellar 2009 season is not by accident or merely some mistake. Pineiro's success this season has been based on a number of factors:

1. Throwing more fastballs (71.1% fastballs)
2. Lower BB rate (1.06)
3. Higher BB/K rate (4.17)
4. Lots and lots of ground balls (2.66 GB/FB, 61.2% GB)
5. No home runs (only 7 allowed this year)

Pineiro will never be mistaken as a high strikeout pitcher, but the blueprint for his success is there: lots of ground balls, impeccable control, no walks, and keeping the ball in yard.

-Age

Pineiro is only turning 31 in September, which means that in theory, his prime years should be ahead of him.

The Case against Pineiro

-Fluke?

Was Pineiro's 2009 season a fluke? Only time will tell for sure, but this question has to be asked. We've seen pitchers have big years right before they hit free agency, get the big money, and then revert back to the form that made them just average. Joel Pineiro has not pitched this well since 2003 so the doubts and questions are going to be present.

Competition

Pineiro is not in the class of John Lackey, which means that he will be competing with the other second tier starting pitchers: Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Brett Myers, Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Jarrod Washburn, etc. Is Joel Pineiro a better option that any of those guys? Given his age and tremendous performance...probably (even with the risk involved in signing him). But I wouldn't expect him to get a whole lot more than any of them, but I expect his contract to exceed every other starting pitcher on the market outside of Lackey.

Elias Ranking: Type B

-I'm sure the Cardinals are hoping that Pineiro becomes a type A by the end of the season, but even if he does not, I'd expect the Cardinals to offer him arbitration (if it makes sense to them financially). Pineiro only made $7.5 million this season, so even if Pineiro accepts, he wouldn't be in line for an absurd raise. I could see the Cardinals refusing to offer Pineiro arbitration if they have no intention of paying him the $10+ million it will take to keep him.

Prediction

(4 years/$40 million)

Here are some comparable contracts:
Kyle Lohse (4 years/$41 million)
Oliver Perez (3 years/$36 million)
Gil Meche (5 years/$55 million)
Ryan Dempster (4 years/$52 million)

I would be very, very hesitant to give Pineiro 4 years+, but I fully expect some team do so. Teams have shown the willingness over the years to overpay for quality starting pitchers, especially young starting pitchers coming off a big season. Pineiro fits that description perfectly.

Thoughts?

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